Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126
Some talking head on Bloomberg was predicting it going down to a $40 level. Not sure if he was mainly focused on fundamentals. It's connected to AI so who knows where it might actually go.
Looks like the talking head might be right. Current price is $52 and falling.
 

Artorias

Platinum Member
Feb 8, 2014
2,131
1,410
136
Stocks going into the dumps again. I bailed out of RTX and bought some AMZN.

Rates probably going to increase for another 6 months. Seems like locking into a CD/GIC eqrly next year for 1 year would be a good move, I think the fed rate starts dropping mid next year.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126
Stocks going into the dumps again. I bailed out of RTX and bought some AMZN.

Rates probably going to increase for another 6 months. Seems like locking into a CD/GIC eqrly next year for 1 year would be a good move, I think the fed rate starts dropping mid next year.
Gotta get past the shutdown nonsense.

October kicks off earnings season.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,351
7,233
136
Our corporate stock is super low, I think I might bump my ESPP contribution to the max. Good time to buy more.
I personally found my old job's ESPP a waste of time. Marginal discount (5%), a flat $40 per sale fee, no look back provision (purchase price was always the average price on 2/28, 5/31, 8/31, and 11/30, less the discount), and it took them 3 weeks to issue the stock after the purchase date, so taking a "maxing and selling immediately" approach had some substantial short term price risks.

Plus, it was somewhat risky to put so many eggs in the basket of my employer. After all, they were also the source of my salary, so if this S&P 500 company were to tank and have layoffs, I'd be out my salary and my savings in the ESPP would be worth far less.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
I personally found my old job's ESPP a waste of time. Marginal discount (5%), a flat $40 per sale fee, no look back provision (purchase price was always the average price on 2/28, 5/31, 8/31, and 11/30, less the discount), and it took them 3 weeks to issue the stock after the purchase date, so taking a "maxing and selling immediately" approach had some substantial short term price risks.

Plus, it was somewhat risky to put so many eggs in the basket of my employer. After all, they were also the source of my salary, so if this S&P 500 company were to tank and have layoffs, I'd be out my salary and my savings in the ESPP would be worth far less.

Yeah I see what you mean about all eggs in one basket, but I suck at picking stocks/investments and this one has historically been good so always use it. It's for shorter term stuff though. I'll cash out every couple years to buy big ticket items.

Being an ISP I don't see it going anywhere, then again that's what people said back when our ESP was Nortel stock... lol.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,351
7,233
136
Yeah I see what you mean about all eggs in one basket, but I suck at picking stocks/investments and this one has historically been good so always use it. It's for shorter term stuff though. I'll cash out every couple years to buy big ticket items.

Being an ISP I don't see it going anywhere, then again that's what people said back when our ESP was Nortel stock... lol.
You don't have to pick stocks to be a winner. Just find a total market, low cost index fund or two to cover the major players (US, Domestic, International), and you'll do fine. I've made good returns with that strategy. I have neither the time nor the patience to do any sort of due diligence on individual companies to try and pick winners and losers.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
You don't have to pick stocks to be a winner. Just find a total market, low cost index fund or two to cover the major players (US, Domestic, International), and you'll do fine. I've made good returns with that strategy. I have neither the time nor the patience to do any sort of due diligence on individual companies to try and pick winners and losers.

Even that I don't really know much about. I'm not even sure HOW to buy index funds, or what to look for etc. I'd have to try to take the time to figure it out, but not like I have much money left over anyway after expenses so I mostly stick with the ESP now days. I have some other stocks I'm sitting on but have not bought in a while.

Most extra money now days I just invest into my property anyway. Next time I cash out some of my ESPP it will probably be for a septic tank install.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Being an ISP I don't see it going anywhere, then again that's what people said back when our ESP was Nortel stock... lol.
Thats what I though about LUMN, VZ and T, but man have those been losers.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,351
7,233
136
Even that I don't really know much about. I'm not even sure HOW to buy index funds, or what to look for etc. I'd have to try to take the time to figure it out, but not like I have much money left over anyway after expenses so I mostly stick with the ESP now days. I have some other stocks I'm sitting on but have not bought in a while.

Most extra money now days I just invest into my property anyway. Next time I cash out some of my ESPP it will probably be for a septic tank install.
Apparently, Vanguard has a Canadian division. They don't really have many mutual funds, but you can buy ETF versions instead: https://www.vanguard.ca/en/investor...tf&managementStyle=passive&selectedFilter=etf

And here is a way you could build a "lazy" but diversified portfolio with only a few funds: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Canadian_versions_of_lazy_portfolios
 

uclaLabrat

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2007
5,578
2,912
136
I personally found my old job's ESPP a waste of time. Marginal discount (5%), a flat $40 per sale fee, no look back provision (purchase price was always the average price on 2/28, 5/31, 8/31, and 11/30, less the discount), and it took them 3 weeks to issue the stock after the purchase date, so taking a "maxing and selling immediately" approach had some substantial short term price risks.

Plus, it was somewhat risky to put so many eggs in the basket of my employer. After all, they were also the source of my salary, so if this S&P 500 company were to tank and have layoffs, I'd be out my salary and my savings in the ESPP would be worth far less.
Damn we get lowest price on a 2-year lookback plus 15% discount. Capped contributions at 10% of gross. I max that shit. Also get RSU grants as performance award.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,351
7,233
136
Damn we get lowest price on a 2-year lookback plus 15% discount. Capped contributions at 10% of gross. I max that shit. Also get RSU grants as performance award.
Yeah, mine was mostly garbage. I put like ~1-3% in over a year or so just for kicks and made a little bit of money, but overall not worth it at all. I was actually going to discontinue my contributions to it (but then I just found a new job instead that paid more). I wish it had a look-back provision, even if only for the previous quarter, but the holding company "needs" its money (which it already generally gets in spades, with 25-35% profit margins from agencies).
 
Reactions: uclaLabrat

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
My company matches up to 2% depending how much you contribute, 6% is the magic number. If you contribute less they contribute less too. So I rarely go under 6 since I see it as "free" money. Unless the stock REALLY tanks you usually come out ahead over 2 years. (need to wait that long before you can cash).

I did end up bumping it back to 12 today. Recently renewed my mortgage, and I dumped the remainder of the credit line on there, and increased my payment so I feel I'm doing a bit better as I only have one debt to pay now. Going to finish setting up the wood stove soon, and also expand solar, so that will be some savings to COL too. Although I still have a lot of work to do before I can fully use solar as there's lot of automation involved to switched loads over properly and such based on production. The wood stove is going to be the biggest savings though.
 

Dr. Detroit

Diamond Member
Sep 25, 2004
8,199
663
126
Listened to some expert economists today who said companies are still suriving on low interest rates as most companies financed in 2021 & 2022. Only 8% of all debt required to be refinanced in 2023, 10% next year and then in 2025 debt refinancing starts to increase significantly.

They subscribed to the Fed keeping rates "higher for longer" as companies do more with less to increase profitability to attempt to maintain stock prices. Companies can't afford to invest in growth.
 
Last edited:
Dec 10, 2005
24,351
7,233
136

A gift article for y'all that seems particularly prudent for this thread on retail investors' ability to pick individual winners and losers.

Retail investors have a well-established track record of destroying their own wealth. Studies have shown that individual traders somehow have the opposite of skill — they manage to do worse than they would by picking stocks at random.

Why? Investing is hard, and there is a lot of competition. There are thousands of actively managed mutual funds. Do you think the average golfer would have a chance against Tiger Woods in his prime?

Ask any finance professor and you’ll get the same boring answer: The best way for most people to invest in the long term is to hold a diversified portfolio of stocks. Admittedly, a movie about a bunch of ordinary people gradually building wealth through prudent financial decisions would be the world’s most boring movie. Boring, but also not dumb.
 
Reactions: GodisanAtheist

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,288
2,094
126

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
Victoria Gold is at 5.71. I bought at like 16 lol. I've been meaning to get out of individual stocks for a while but waiting for them to go up again since it makes no sense to sell at a loss. Might be a while. That's my biggest one, I put over a grand in there.
 

PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,815
143
106
I sold ARM at $55 a few days ago so I'm ok now except for my initial loss which isn't a big percentage of my buy in. ARM is now sinking along with most of the markets. I know long term is the better way to plan but wonder if anyone else jumped on the ARM IPO.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
Betting on Canadian juniors is a risky business.
I keep hoping I get lucky like my uncle did with gold related stocks, but yeah not happening so far. He ended up making a million dollars off a stock years back. Gave us all 1k to share some of the money he made.
 
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