Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
I sold ARM at $55 a few days ago so I'm ok now as it has sunk. I know ling term is the better way to plan but wonder if anyone else jumped on the ARM IPO.

Earnings could be a big catalyst either up or down. The range on the stock seems to be from $49 to $56. Some stocks are just range bound until either earnings or a new company announcement. Or the market goes down and takes ARM with it.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
I sold ARM at $55 a few days ago so I'm ok now except for my initial loss which isn't a big percentage of my buy in. ARM is now sinking along with most of the markets. I know long term is the better way to plan but wonder if anyone else jumped on the ARM IPO.
I bought and held for less than an hour. Posted somewhere in this thread.

The real test will be their first earnings.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
I sold ARM at $55 a few days ago so I'm ok now except for my initial loss which isn't a big percentage of my buy in. ARM is now sinking along with most of the markets. I know long term is the better way to plan but wonder if anyone else jumped on the ARM IPO.
No didn't buy in. Whats the catalyst for ARM? ARM is a mature company that was public, then became private thanks to Softbank, the same company that bought WeWork when it was trash.
Now ARM is a critical player in a critical market but I just don't see too much growth at this point and even they admitted it. "It disclosed last month that its annual revenue had dropped 1% as its two largest markets - smartphones and personal computers - slumped."

 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
Forgot to add... the number of unemployment claims has been going down and the numbers drawing unemployment has been trending downward too since May. That's bad news for stocks.
 

bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
243
8
81
Even that I don't really know much about. I'm not even sure HOW to buy index funds, or what to look for etc. I'd have to try to take the time to figure it out, but not like I have much money left over anyway after expenses so I mostly stick with the ESP now days. I have some other stocks I'm sitting on but have not bought in a while.

Most extra money now days I just invest into my property anyway. Next time I cash out some of my ESPP it will probably be for a septic tank install.
If you're a reader, I recommend The Intelligent Investor.
HOW to buy index funds....just buy them in whatever broker you use. On how to pick them...that's a lot of personal how do you want your money invested.

The S&P500 index fund(there's many versions, pick any) is fairly diversified and the recommendation of Warren Buffet. For the index funds, typically a low expense ratio is better. SPY and VOO are 2 I'm in. VOO is lower expense ratio. I use the index funds and then make some smallish gambles on individual stocks.

It all depends on your strategy or outlook on your investments. Some are for the long game which is better suited for the index funds. Others are quick gambles people take.

What some people are doing now is trying to get into a lot of sector ETFs. I've thought about converting my stuff into more of a SP500 then split some out to do some SP500 sector ETFs.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
If you're a reader, I recommend The Intelligent Investor.
HOW to buy index funds....just buy them in whatever broker you use. On how to pick them...that's a lot of personal how do you want your money invested.

The S&P500 index fund(there's many versions, pick any) is fairly diversified and the recommendation of Warren Buffet. For the index funds, typically a low expense ratio is better. SPY and VOO are 2 I'm in. VOO is lower expense ratio. I use the index funds and then make some smallish gambles on individual stocks.

It all depends on your strategy or outlook on your investments. Some are for the long game which is better suited for the index funds. Others are quick gambles people take.

What some people are doing now is trying to get into a lot of sector ETFs. I've thought about converting my stuff into more of a SP500 then split some out to do some SP500 sector ETFs.
I do the same. Only do individual stocks if it has a strong chance for a gain. For a very short time. Same day to a few days.

Tech sector ETFs are good. Good performance since the dot-com bubble. Let's just hope there isn't another dot-com bubble.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
I do the same. Only do individual stocks if it has a strong chance for a gain. For a very short time. Same day to a few days.

Tech sector ETFs are good. Good performance since the dot-com bubble. Let's just hope there isn't another dot-com bubble.
Bubblicious market money is the best kind.

Ironically Im posting this from my casino hotel room. I actually made money this time. This one machine just kept paying like it was broken and the prizes just got bigger and bigger. Made a few grand in accumulated gains off that and other machines. Did give some back. Had one good meal and what turned out to be a $500 beer.

Shit, everybody was winning. It was kind of surreal. Then they turned the spigot off and everyone was losing. That's when I quit and was on my laptop the rest of the night. I know their tricks to take their money back and then some. The doors don't stay open by paying people any more than it takes to fool them.

Kind of like the stock market. 😉
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Payrolls increased nearly doubled of estimate. Estimate: 170K, Actual: 336K.

Futures sinking fast.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Sell the rumor, buy the news?

"Despite the overwhelming strength, however, September’s data reflected notable cooling in an area on which the Fed has been most focused: wages. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% in September, coming in 0.1 percentage point below expectations and matching the pace set in August."

That could be seen as a good thing. Big jobs numbers means less risk of recession and lower wage growth means less inflation. Soft landing?
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Bought premarket right after 8:30. Don't usually do that.

October is a month of higher volatility. Monday could swing just as heavy in the other direction.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
They are predicting $100 to $150 oil. That should be great for oil stocks, not so much for the economy as a whole and inflation. And being that old man Biden drained the SPR to keep prices low previously, we might have a hard time wrangling prices back down....

...unless...

Biden orders those companies that can allow workers to work from home to do so, so as to reduce demand for oil via daily commuting that should actually make prices decline rapidly depending on participation. That would be a smart move.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Won't need to buy gas probably until April.

How much is the bond market being down affecting the stock market?
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
They are predicting $100 to $150 oil. That should be great for oil stocks, not so much for the economy as a whole and inflation. And being that old man Biden drained the SPR to keep prices low previously, we might have a hard time wrangling prices back down....
The entire point of the strategic oil reserve is to keep oil prices stable. That is why it was created. It is lower than it has been for quite a while, but there is still far from "drained". https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcsstus1&f=m

One key difference from when Biden first used it was now US oil production is now equal to its all time high and increasing. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M High prices + high production = fat profits for American oil.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
The entire point of the strategic oil reserve is to keep oil prices stable. That is why it was created. It is lower than it has been for quite a while, but there is still far from "drained". https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcsstus1&f=m

One key difference from when Biden first used it was now US oil production is now equal to its all time high and increasing. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M High prices + high production = fat profits for American oil.
But I think most would admit that too many resources are consumed on just getting to and from work. Telecommuting should be encouraged by government to help keep energy prices and inflation down, not to mention the added benefit of reduced carbon emissions.
 
Reactions: Red Squirrel

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
But I think most would admit that too many resources are consumed on just getting to and from work. Telecommuting should be encouraged by government to help keep energy prices and inflation down, not to mention the added benefit of reduced carbon emissions.
I agree that we waste a ton of resources on the commutes that are unnecessary. However, despite what people claim, we do not actually have a socialist government (I'm using the dictionary definition of 'socialist' here which means government OWNS most businesses). Biden has no possible legal or constitutional way to "orders those companies that can allow workers to work from home to do so".
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
And yet it is still down 99.938% in the last 8 years.
So where does it go next? It hit 4,500% after hours. I made a few bucks. I had about 50 shares at 4.50 and dumped at 7.00 in one account. Another account did better, 18 shares bought at 5 and sold at $11 after hours.

Does it go back to 15 cents?
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
So where does it go next? It hit 4,500% after hours. I made a few bucks. I had about 50 shares at 4.50 and dumped at 7.00 in one account. Another account did better, 18 shares bought at 5 and sold at $11 after hours.

Does it go back to 15 cents?
I have absolutely no clue. It all depends on the results of their Phase 2 and Phase 3 Liver Cancer trial results.
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
I have absolutely no clue. It all depends on the results of their Phase 2 and Phase 3 Liver Cancer trial results.
So they sold $7m worth of stock on a $100m shelf offering. The market cap is way too high given their stage of development. I suspect it goes back under $1 if they fully dilute.
 
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