Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

[Brainonska511]

I have no idea how to do that and there's lot of paperwork involved to deal with US investment instruments. The ESPP is done automatically and company contributes a certain percentage too if I contribute. When the stock goes back up, I will get a profit. Buy low, sell high.

I'm sure opening a brokerage account in Canada and finding some low cost, diversified funds is not actually that difficult. But you do you.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Container prices are up due to trouble from the Middle East and trains from Mexico are now being blocked to demigrant them.

Supply constraints? Inflation!

Shipping rates skyrocketing, bought ZIM, $20 share in cash, current price 11.70

 

[repoman0]

I'm sure opening a brokerage account in Canada and finding some low cost, diversified funds is not actually that difficult. But you do you.

Five minutes of Googling or an extra decade or three of night shifts to achieve a similar net worth?

 

[jpiniero]

I'm sure opening a brokerage account in Canada and finding some low cost, diversified funds is not actually that difficult. But you do you.

The biggest ETFs aren't that diversified anymore. I can't say for sure what it will take for Tech Stock hype to end... but even like VTI is basically a Tech Stock fund now.

 

[Brainonska511]

The biggest ETFs aren't that diversified anymore. I can't say for sure what it will take for Tech Stock hype to end... but even like VTI is basically a Tech Stock fund now.

VTI is only 30% in tech, so not sure where you are getting that idea from.

 

[jpiniero]

VTI is only 30% in tech, so not sure where you are getting that idea from.

Pretty sure Apple and Amazon for instance are considered "Consumer Discretionary" and not Technology. If you look at the "Sector" percentages. Tesla is also probally in the Automotive part (which that at least makes sense)

 

[AdamK47]

VTI


VGT


VTI has always been a safe bet since it has ~4K companies in large, mid, and small cap with growth and value.

I've gone back to VGT this year since it will have a larger benefit with the lower interest rates on the horizon.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I'm sure opening a brokerage account in Canada and finding some low cost, diversified funds is not actually that difficult. But you do you.

I have one, still have to know what you're doing in it. I know how to buy individual stocks but not sure about all the other stuff like Roth, VTI ,SP500 and other fancy investment terms people throw around. I don't really see any options on the broker site for any of that. Closest thing might be GICs. My RSPP is managed by my bank and I believe it is already using GICs. I let them manage it for me. I don't put a lot of money into that, just enough to avoid paying taxes at tax time, since I'll be taxed on it when I take it out. That's basically ultra emergency money, I never plan to touch that.

Stocks is basically gambling, I don't count on getting rich from it, but play with whatever I can afford to lose. The ESPP is the only single stock where I've actually had a good return so I stick with that one and got out of most other individual stocks except for the ones that are lower than when I bought. No sense in cashing at a loss. This is the first year where there is no return on the ESPP but it just means a bigger return later on.

The economy is trash right now. My ESPP is probably going to recover in the next couple years depending on how US and Canada elections go. Our economies are very closely tied together. It tanked around covid, then a year later was super high. Had enough to buy my off grid property at that point. So hoping this dip is basically the same thing, it will probably recover in next couple years.

 

[Brainonska511]

The economy, at least the US one is far from trash (in fact, it's quite fantastic by nearly every metric). I bet Canada isn't doing much worse given it's tight coupling to the US.

And stocks, if you buy an index fund, are far from gambling. Much safer than solely investing in your employer ESPP. You're just missing out on the general uplift of the market by being so tightly invested in your employer.

But do what you want. It's clear you have your mind made up.

 

[Charmonium]

Low fee index funds are the way to go. But the "low fee" part is the key. If you're using a stock broker and not a fiduciary, you're taking it up the ass whether you realize it or not.

In years when the market is up 10% 20% or more and you see 5% of that, don't start doing your happy dance because your broker is making out like the bandit he/she is.

And by low fee, I mean a few tenths of a percent max. For Vanguard say, that's going mean tossing them a few more bucks than Robin Hood, about $10k more. But you reap virtually ALL of the rewards.

And in years when the market is down, ignore it. Just look at the 100 year trend line for the Dow or any major index. There WILL be times when it looks like the market is going down and won't stop any time soon. The Great Recession is the perfect example of that. But what is the long term trend? Up, up, up.

Timing the markets is a fool's game. Some fools like me learn that quickly. Other fools take much, much longer.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Is Index Fund same as Mutual fund? I do see an option for those. Nothing for VTI etc either. I also heard people mention SP500 but not sure how to buy that either. Do I need a different type of broker for that kind of thing? This particular broker is more for stocks. Basically these are the options I have:

I've only really played with the stock option but I'm working on getting out of that so have not bought any in a while. I have mostly everything in one mine and will probably get out once/if it goes back up.

 

[Charmonium]

No. In fact a lot of mutual funds are the absolute worst offenders since they like to backload fees, or at least used to. It should be illegal and I can only hope it is now. Also, good luck trying to figure out what you're actually being charged.

Even index funds can have high hidden fees.

That said, Vanguard is essentially a large family of mutual funds. But until you have a little more confidence in investing, stick with the index funds. If you're feeling brave, think about some broad industry funds - tech, healthcare, etc. Just realize that the betas on those are probably going to be higher (or lower) than the market generally.

Beta is just a measure of volatility. So tech for example is going to have a pretty high (>1) indicating it both moves up AND down more than the market as a whole. But others, say utilities, is going to have a relatively low beta. So if you're a wary investor, stick with either general index funds or ones with a beta <1.

Stay away from derivatives like options and futures contracts unless you like losing lots of money very quickly.

 

[Charmonium]

I'm thinking now that was a little confusing.

Generally, when I talk about index funds, I mean ETFs - exchange traded funds. But you're going to have to do some research on those since the line between ETFs and mutuals can be a little blurry, especially since I follow my own advice and rarely look at my holdings.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Yeah that's where it gets confusing I hear lot of different terms and to me they all sound similar but I guess are not. I understand the concept of several stocks being bundled up into a single instrument but there seems to be so many different kind of those with different names. Like there's also GICs which I am a bit more familiar with. My RRSP account (which is managed by my bank) uses GICs as the investment and I do see an option to buy those if I wanted to manage my own.

 

[biostud]

Yeah that's where it gets confusing I hear lot of different terms and to me they all sound similar but I guess are not. I understand the concept of several stocks being bundled up into a single instrument but there seems to be so many different kind of those with different names. Like there's also GICs which I am a bit more familiar with. My RRSP account (which is managed by my bank) uses GICs as the investment and I do see an option to buy those if I wanted to manage my own.

For me personally I have a workplace paid pension, which I can't really do much about.

For my own investments I would never let a bank or other investment company handle it. Most likely they are going to take a couple of percent of your earnings without giving you something, you couldn't get yourself by buying index funds or ETFs.

 

[Charmonium]

When I google GICs it just says it's a means of classifying stocks into specific industry categories. That sounds like shorthand for "sector" funds but that's just a guess.

FYI, I think mutual fund fees have become a lot more transparent in recent decades. So maybe I was being unduly cautious.

I do have about half of my money in actively managed funds but I keep it there because a) that's where I started investing and b) they mostly have returns that make them worthwhile. I have had to sell some non-performing assets but that was likely due to my choice of industries.

 

[Charmonium]

BTW, don't get scared off by financial jargon. There are some concepts that can be a little mind-warping but I'd say at least 90% of the time, you can get a very thorough understanding of things from Investopia's website.

 

[JTsyo]

December basically doubled the returns for this year or with the combination with last Dec was a big gap.

 

[iCyborg]

I'm thinking now that was a little confusing.

Generally, when I talk about index funds, I mean ETFs - exchange traded funds. But you're going to have to do some research on those since the line between ETFs and mutuals can be a little blurry, especially since I follow my own advice and rarely look at my holdings.

I'm not a fan of GICs - money is locked for a certain period of time, and it's generally a lot lower rate than whatever related index/sector is. Like the best I can see at my bank is 5yr with a guaranteed min rate of 12% and up to max 50%. This is an overall rate over 5 years, not annualized, that would be about 2.3% and 8.4% respectively. You're guaranteed not to lose money, but that "up-to-50%" will only happen if market was crazy good. I wouldn't sign up for that, especially since you can't get to your money in 5 years without paying penalties.

I mostly use TD e-series: https://www.tdcanadatrust.com/products-services/investing/mutual-funds/mer-diff.jsp
There should be something similar at whatever Red Squirrel uses. US fund tracks S&P 500 and fee is 0.34%.
ETFs are better, but mutual funds have some convenience factors, you can buy fractional units, dividends are reinvested automatically without tax implications etc. I remember comparing available ETFs with my funds and even at 1M, difference was some 150$ per year. The less hassle is worth that much to me.
2-3M is probably the cutoff for me where I would consider switching to ETF.

I skip ESPP as I already have fairly substantial position in my company through stock grants, it's some 30-40% of my porfolio, I don't feel the need to put even more eggs in that basket.

 

[VirtualLarry]

PE ratios of current Big tech companies overvalued?

 

[biostud]

PE ratios of current Big tech companies overvalued?

That is why they now can populate it with AI entities. The sky is the limit

 

[FelixDeCat]

PE ratios of current Big tech companies overvalued?

This has always been the case IMO and thus the AI hype as the market is always looking for the next big thing.

I remember the dead years following the dot com crash, nothing but mostly market stagnation until the housing bubble and mortgage finance booms of the mid 2000s ..... that ended in the greatest housing crash since the great depression, the failure of 450 banks, a 60%+ crash in the DOW and the near bankruptcy and finally receivership of FNMA & FHLMC, two publicly traded companies whose downfalls were deemed impossible because of implied government backing (which they got in exchange for all their profits which the government STILL takes to this day despite being fully paid back!)

Will we see a return of flat markets until these tech giants grow into their valuations? Perhaps. But this is why they are clamoring for the Fed to start cutting rates and eventually return to zero rates and bond meddling so the overvalued stock market is the only alternative for investors.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Here is the 2024 thread:

Discussion - ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

2023 Thread: http://www.portvapes.co.uk/?id=Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps&exid=threads/official-2023-stock-market-thread-💰.2609587/ Hopefully 2024 will be a good year. :)

forums.anandtech.com

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Thoughts/bets on a record S&P this week?

4,766 or so at this moment, 30 points off the record of Jan '22

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

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