Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Vanguard released their 10 year outlook. This is of course estimations based on data available today.


They have my boy VTI at only 5.7% annual returns. They also say International stocks will outperform US stocks. How many times have people predicted that at the start of prior years and it ultimately not proven out?

We live in volatile times. Who knows how these estimates will change as new data continually comes to light?
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Buzzfeed using AI to write articles. Stock on a tear.
I don't see what would be so hard for AI to write a Buzzfeed formulaic clickbaity article.

1. Create a headline with an attention grabbing driver.
2. String the reader through several paragraphs that rephrase the topic and keep the users eyes on the page without actually getting to the point.
3. Put ads in-between each incredibly short paragraph.
4. Get to an anti-climactic point 2/3rds of the way into the article.
5. Add similar clickbaity links at the end to keep the reader engaged with the site.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
I don't see what would be so hard for AI to write a Buzzfeed formulaic clickbaity article.

1. Create a headline with an attention grabbing driver.
2. String the reader through several paragraphs that rephrase the topic and keep the users eyes on the page without actually getting to the point.
3. Put ads in-between each incredibly short paragraph.
4. Get to an anti-climactic point 2/3rds of the way into the article.
5. Add similar clickbaity links at the end to keep the reader engaged with the site.

Maybe it's the whole cut overhead by firing actual humans in favor of AI part.

That or the hype machine is on full auto.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Vanguard released their 10 year outlook. This is of course estimations based on data available today.


They have my boy VTI at only 5.7% annual returns. They also say International stocks will outperform US stocks. How many times have people predicted that at the start of prior years and it ultimately not proven out?

We live in volatile times. Who knows how these estimates will change as new data continually comes to light?

International has underperformed for almost a decade, so if reversion to the mean is still correct, international should outperform eventually. It is trading at a much lower multiple, but yeah, I have heard "international will outperform" almost as much as I have heard "this is the year of linux on the desktop".
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
International has underperformed for almost a decade, so if reversion to the mean is still correct, international should outperform eventually. It is trading at a much lower multiple, but yeah, I have heard "international will outperform" almost as much as I have heard "this is the year of linux on the desktop".

Anyone remember Lindows? And who can remember how hot Red Hat stock was for a long time until IBM finally bought them out. Ah the halcyon days.

While I never really got into Linux I do use Android sometimes.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Get ready for a rally like no other rally! A rally for the ages! A rally that all other rallies will be benchmarked against!
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
Single hike is your winner. Nothing in the Fed statement suggests a pivot. Stocks didn't really move much on the news.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Looks like Carvana was a good trade over the last few days. Too bad the business is bad.

Carvana up another 70% in two days from $10 to $17. Looks like meme stocks are in full throttle mode.


This of course is not even close to this stupid little stock I was looking at - MSGM. It opened up from $2 to $8 on some debt for equity swap. I was tempted to buy 100 shares at $8 but passed seeing no justifiable reason for the gigantic rise. The shares pulled back sharply to $6.90 then rose back to $8 in a heartbeat. I was glad I did not buy.

The stock kept halting to the upside. It went from $8 to $12 and halted, $12 to $16 halted, $16 to $22 halted, $22 to $29 halted.

Pre-market this morning it was SEVENTY FUCKING DOLLARS A SHARE! From $2 to $70 in 24 hours.

I bought 8 shares at $37.87.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
Meta/Facebook/whatever for some reason jumped 20% AH after earnings even though revenue is down. Maybe silly season is back?
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Meta/Facebook/whatever for some reason jumped 20% AH after earnings even though revenue is down. Maybe silly season is back?

Good thing I bought OOTM call options expiring on Friday prior to the report....oh wait, I didnt.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Looks like a bit of a rally. Who could have guessed?

Powell said something that was very revealing today and could portend some bad juju later this year. He said the Fed would not come to rescue in regards to the debt ceiling. Assuming no agreement is reached it could mean a second downgrade of the national credit rating leading to even higher interest payments on top of already higher rates.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Powell said something that was very revealing today and could portend some bad juju later this year. He said the Fed would not come to rescue in regards to the debt ceiling. Assuming no agreement is reached it could mean a second downgrade of the national credit rating leading to even higher interest payments on top of already higher rates.
Congress has the predictable track record of 11th hour votes to raise the debt ceiling. Members want to drag it out to the last minute in order to score points with constituents on whatever ideology they support. I don't let the political sensationalism news of the week/month bleed into my financial future. Those that do miss out.
 
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