Lost_in_the_HTTP
Lifer
- Nov 17, 2019
- 11,264
- 6,702
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44 it is.Next for the S&P, 44, or 43?
For now.
I'm not optimistic.
44 it is.Next for the S&P, 44, or 43?
44 it is.
For now.
I'm not optimistic.
Must have something to do with all the return to office mandates.Yeah doesn't make any sense. Seems more like a regular market rally too and not just AI AI AI.
Seems like a good one.Bought SPCE 5.15, small position. Resuming flights, large sort interest.
Total long shot
Must have something to do with all the return to office mandates.
SPCE hanging in there. 😀Seems like a good one.
It's on a near vertical takeoff in after hours.
Where do you think it's headed?Threw a few bones at CAVA.
My wife mentioned this companys restaurant in our area and I am throwing a bit in too. It reminds me a lot of chipotle when it first started. I really didn't think chipotle with its simple tex-mex themed menu would take off but look at it now.Threw a few bones at CAVA.
Two or more rate increases and holding for at least through all of 2024.Potential effects of this?
U.S. first quarter GDP revised up to 2% annually, driven in part by consumer spending - UPI.com
An increase in consumer spending in part led to an upward revision to growth in the U.S. economy, where gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2% during the three-month period to March.www.upi.com
The Fed has been signaling a ~5.1% to 5.5% rate for the last 3 quarters. So, one to two hikes is in line with what they were signaling. Your "or more" seems doubtful to me.Two or more rate increases and holding for at least through all of 2024.
And the real question is, why even increase? They are already around 2%, so if anything they should rather be ready to lower the rate.The Fed has been signaling a ~5.1% to 5.5% rate for the last 3 quarters. So, one to two hikes is in line with what they were signaling. Your "or more" seems doubtful to me.
One key thing is that inflation has a 13-month lag. One of those months is just collecting and processing the data. But the other 12 months are because inflation numbers that most people look at include any price increase in any of the 12 months of the survey. For example, if there is just a one-time price jump, and no other price change at all, then it will look like there is high inflation for the next 12 months--even though it was just a one-time jump.
We had the biggest inflation in the June 2022 numbers. Meaning when July 12 comes around and the CPI data comes out, that big jump will finally be out of the data set. If inflation runs like it has been running since then, the CPI values on July 12 will show inflation in the lower 2% range. If the next data set is just slightly better than it has been then last 11 months, then the CPI will be right at the fed's 2% target. That can already be seen in the Personal Consumption Expenditures data that came out today as being the lowest increase in the last year.
That is a long-winded way of saying that I think the fed will have a hard time increasing more than 2 times after they have already met their inflation goal.
I can see a few reasons. Some more valid than others.And the real question is, why even increase? They are already around 2%, so if anything they should rather be ready to lower the rate.
Long term, I think it will be a good one, short term not so much. One of the guys that helped Panera grow to it's size is responsible for the chain now, so I'm hopeful it will be a good long term investment. I put < $1000 into it.Where do you think it's headed?
I hope it is like chipotle, it's been compared to it a lot.My wife mentioned this companys restaurant in our area and I am throwing a bit in too. It reminds me a lot of chipotle when it first started. I really didn't think chipotle with its simple tex-mex themed menu would take off but look at it now.