Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
I think we might have a summer swoon. Maybe QQQ 345. Would love QQQ 300. Current price 362.

52 Week high is 372 one week ago, on Friday 6/16/23.

52 Week low 254 in October 2022.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Threw a few bones at CAVA.
My wife mentioned this companys restaurant in our area and I am throwing a bit in too. It reminds me a lot of chipotle when it first started. I really didn't think chipotle with its simple tex-mex themed menu would take off but look at it now.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
Two or more rate increases and holding for at least through all of 2024.
The Fed has been signaling a ~5.1% to 5.5% rate for the last 3 quarters. So, one to two hikes is in line with what they were signaling. Your "or more" seems doubtful to me.

One key thing is that inflation has a 13-month lag. One of those months is just collecting and processing the data. But the other 12 months are because inflation numbers that most people look at include any price increase in any of the 12 months of the survey. For example, if there is just a one-time price jump, and no other price change at all, then it will look like there is high inflation for the next 12 months--even though it was just a one-time jump.

We had the biggest inflation in the June 2022 numbers. Meaning when July 12 comes around and the CPI data comes out, that big jump will finally be out of the data set. If inflation runs like it has been running since then, the CPI values on July 12 will show inflation in the lower 2% range. If the next data set is just slightly better than it has been then last 11 months, then the CPI will be right at the fed's 2% target. That can already be seen in the Personal Consumption Expenditures data that came out today as being the lowest increase in the last year.

That is a long-winded way of saying that I think the fed will have a hard time increasing more than 2 times after they have already met their inflation goal.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,392
4,962
136
The Fed has been signaling a ~5.1% to 5.5% rate for the last 3 quarters. So, one to two hikes is in line with what they were signaling. Your "or more" seems doubtful to me.

One key thing is that inflation has a 13-month lag. One of those months is just collecting and processing the data. But the other 12 months are because inflation numbers that most people look at include any price increase in any of the 12 months of the survey. For example, if there is just a one-time price jump, and no other price change at all, then it will look like there is high inflation for the next 12 months--even though it was just a one-time jump.

We had the biggest inflation in the June 2022 numbers. Meaning when July 12 comes around and the CPI data comes out, that big jump will finally be out of the data set. If inflation runs like it has been running since then, the CPI values on July 12 will show inflation in the lower 2% range. If the next data set is just slightly better than it has been then last 11 months, then the CPI will be right at the fed's 2% target. That can already be seen in the Personal Consumption Expenditures data that came out today as being the lowest increase in the last year.

That is a long-winded way of saying that I think the fed will have a hard time increasing more than 2 times after they have already met their inflation goal.
And the real question is, why even increase? They are already around 2%, so if anything they should rather be ready to lower the rate.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
And the real question is, why even increase? They are already around 2%, so if anything they should rather be ready to lower the rate.
I can see a few reasons. Some more valid than others.
  • My post hinges on an "if" statement. "If" inflation stays similar to the way it was in the last 11 months. Inflation could take off again.
  • The fed may want to do an overkill of inflation just to be certain it is dead. When I worked at Arby's as a teen I was taught that you slap a fly with a flyswatter then you stomp on it to be sure it is dead. Since GDP is still okay, they can err on the side of higher interest rates.
  • The fed doesn't like to change interest rates in an election year. If they don't do it in the next few sessions, then they will have significantly more political backlash if they change rates next year.
 

bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
243
8
81
Where do you think it's headed?
Long term, I think it will be a good one, short term not so much. One of the guys that helped Panera grow to it's size is responsible for the chain now, so I'm hopeful it will be a good long term investment. I put < $1000 into it.

I know IPO are usually not a good idea.
 

bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
243
8
81
My wife mentioned this companys restaurant in our area and I am throwing a bit in too. It reminds me a lot of chipotle when it first started. I really didn't think chipotle with its simple tex-mex themed menu would take off but look at it now.
I hope it is like chipotle, it's been compared to it a lot.
 
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