Discussion ***Official*** 2023 Stock Market Thread 💰

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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
I have $160K sitting on the sidelines waiting for next week. Going to see how that pans out.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
You're supposed to put that money toward a new car, not magic beans!
I've had my fill of cars for the year. Stock market is looking good right now. Still a terrible time to buy any car. Need to wait until dealerships find a way to get their heads out of their own asses.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
I came across these on Fidelity today .. pretty straightforward to buy on the secondary market. What is the catch here? There are recently issued 10 year 6.3% federal farm bank bonds (callable) for sale for roughly face value.
The main drawback is that they are not backed by the full faith and credit of the US. This describes that issue fairly well:
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
I have $160K sitting on the sidelines waiting for next week. Going to see how that pans out.
Everyone and their sister is buying Tesla.

I was looking into TSLY, which is an ETF that pays out on the volatility of Tesla options. Its a weird gamble that "currently" has a 40-60% annual yield paid monthly. They also offer the ETFs on Nvidia and ARKK volatility plays. TSLY was started this year. Of course TSLY could wind up going to zero during a black swan event, so buyer beware.
 
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PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,815
143
106
We've had AAPL for smartphones, TSLA for electric cars, and now NVDA is the defacto AI stock. P/E doesn't matter when the full force of industry hype is centered on it.
Since you mentioned NVDA I'll take this opportunity to say who would ever have thought it would be a steal at $430 a few business days ago? Now it's over $460. Not a bad profit at all. Of course that's a bit of sarcasm because I thought it was too high to buy and thus missed my chance again. And numerous other sensible reasons that we all know like single stock trading is like gambling or too risky for most of us. For example if NVDA investors had read the last week's CPI report in a different way then buying it at $430 would've been a bad idea (edit: for a long buy of a few days or so.)

Also the forum is probably getting tired of me bringing up missed NVDA bounce up buying opportunities in hindsight. So I sat on my hands waiting for the stock to be brought up by someone else giving me a chance to post about another missed buy.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Since you mentioned NVDA I'll take this opportunity to say who would ever have thought it would be a steal at $430 a few business days ago? Now it's over $460. Not a bad profit at all. Of course that's a bit of sarcasm because I thought it was too high to buy and thus missed my chance again. And numerous other sensible reasons that we all know like single stock trading is like gambling or too risky for most of us. For example if NVDA investors had read the last week's CPI report in a different way then buying it at $430 would've been a bad idea (edit: for a long buy of a few days or so.)

Also the forum is probably getting tired of me bringing up missed NVDA bounce up buying opportunities in hindsight. So I sat on my hands waiting for the stock to be brought up by someone else giving me a chance to post about another missed buy.
I've had plenty of missed buys of NVDA in '02 and '03. The major barrier I had to buying is that I was poor. Kinda makes it hard.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Anyone heard of the new ETF TJUL? Supposedly, it has all of the upside of the S&P 500 with none of the downside. They claim 100% no downside. Not sure how it's possible.
 
Nov 17, 2019
11,264
6,702
136
So far away from being a trader I don't even know the terms used here.

S&P is back to 4550 and climbing. Target is upper 48s to get back to record territory. Will it get there?
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,392
4,962
136
Anyone heard of the new ETF TJUL? Supposedly, it has all of the upside of the S&P 500 with none of the downside. They claim 100% no downside. Not sure how it's possible.
I tried to look into it and as far as I can see it, you also will possibly also get a lower maximum than the sp500 over the period you invest in. Look at the very positive results in the fact sheet. Also the expense ratio is quite a bit higher than just buying an sp500 ETF.

Personally I don’t buy products I don’t understand or seem too good to be true.

I think they are launching the product because they believe sp500 is going through the roof within the next couple of years and then they can harvest the surplus of the super positive results, that you would have got had you just invested in a regular sp500 ETF.

 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
Carvana reports early today. I have exactly 1 share I bought after hours last night at $35.

I love when companies make surprise moves like this. They were supposed to report August 2nd and the options market put a big premium on puts and calls. But since the company announced last night after the option markets closed, they were caught by surprise. Now the options market makers are mispriced meaning anyone who was long weekly puts or calls expiring Friday may do nicely today. Of course most people are not long weekly puts or calls except around earnings, thus the large premium charges.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Anyone heard of the new ETF TJUL? Supposedly, it has all of the upside of the S&P 500 with none of the downside. They claim 100% no downside. Not sure how it's possible.
From the summary:
There is no guarantee the Fund will be successful in providing the sought-after protection.

ETF seeks to track the return of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), to a cap,...


So they do cap your gains, so not all the upside. Expense ratio of .79% is higher than an index fund. We will have to see its 10 year performance to know.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,312
2,915
126
Carvana reports early today. I have exactly 1 share I bought after hours last night at $35.

I love when companies make surprise moves like this. They were supposed to report August 2nd and the options market put a big premium on puts and calls. But since the company announced last night after the option markets closed, they were caught by surprise. Now the options market makers are mispriced meaning anyone who was long weekly puts or calls expiring Friday may do nicely today. Of course most people are not long weekly puts or calls except around earnings, thus the large premium charges.
40% pre-market. Good lordy moses!
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,294
2,095
126
40% pre-market. Good lordy moses!
I sold at $50.

Edit: Cramer says with the debt deal and share issuance, this is a new Carvana that has a good shot at survival. He will interview billionaire owner Garcia on MM tonight.

Cramer endorsement? Kiss of death. Lol
 
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PlanetJosh

Golden Member
May 6, 2013
1,815
143
106
I've had plenty of missed buys of NVDA in '02 and '03. The major barrier I had to buying is that I was poor. Kinda makes it hard.
Yeah It dipped a little below $1 in '02. So using $1/share if you bought $100 worth of it back then it would be a little over $46,000 today. But that's not a whole lot. And you may not have been able to spare the $100 investment. That is a difficult situation. Don't know how close you were to being able to afford a $1000 buy in.
 

drnickriviera

Platinum Member
Jan 30, 2001
2,422
205
116
I came across these on Fidelity today .. pretty straightforward to buy on the secondary market. What is the catch here? There are recently issued 10 year 6.3% federal farm bank bonds (callable) for sale for roughly face value.
I"ve read they are always called. I have one that is callable before the first coupon. So far it hasn't been called, but I expect it to be on the first coupon.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
I sold at $50.

Edit: Cramer says with the debt deal and share issuance, this is a new Carvana that has a good shot at survival. He will interview billionaire owner Garcia on MM tonight.

Cramer endorsement? Kiss of death. Lol
Smart man. If Cramer is singing its praises, then its time to bail.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,831
5,444
136
Unemployment continues to not move much. Seems a given that there's going to be a hike next week.

But will that be the last?
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,392
4,962
136
Unemployment continues to not move much. Seems a given that there's going to be a hike next week.

But will that be the last?
Uhm, they should not base hikes on low unemployment, but on high inflation.

Remember the bank only have two goals. Low unemployment and low inflation.

It can never be a goal to increase unemployment, if the inflation is falling (which it is).
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,376
7,266
136
Anyone ever participate in a brokerage securities lending program? https://investor.vanguard.com/campaign/earn-additional-income-on-securities-you-hold

Recently got an email from Vanguard about it, but it's hard to gauge the risks and benefits from the limited information provided. It seems, at least for taxable accounts, you could generate 1099-MISC income, which could hurt come tax time, but if it was just done in an IRA or Roth IRA, it seems like there might be few downsides?
 

bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
243
8
81
Yeah It dipped a little below $1 in '02. So using $1/share if you bought $100 worth of it back then it would be a little over $46,000 today. But that's not a whole lot. And you may not have been able to spare the $100 investment. That is a difficult situation. Don't know how close you were to being able to afford a $1000 buy in.
I bought mine in 2008 using money I was overpaid for working overtime. After the split, my cost / share is $1.7247. I wish I would have been reinvesting my dividends. I didn't start that until 2020 and it's given me 3+ shares.
Before 2020 I pooled all my dividends into other stocks like JNJ/PG.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,203
3,617
126
Anyone ever participate in a brokerage securities lending program? https://investor.vanguard.com/campaign/earn-additional-income-on-securities-you-hold

Recently got an email from Vanguard about it, but it's hard to gauge the risks and benefits from the limited information provided. It seems, at least for taxable accounts, you could generate 1099-MISC income, which could hurt come tax time, but if it was just done in an IRA or Roth IRA, it seems like there might be few downsides?
I have not done it. It could give additional income on shares that you already are planning on holding. They say you can sell the shares, but don't elaborate as to if it is a difficult thing to do.

As an aside, the "How Does it Work" item #2 really bothers me. You take all the risk with your shares (tax risk, voting rights risk, valuation drop risk since this is used as a short, etc.) and Vanguard takes half the profit. Brokers really bother me that way. It is always your money or your shares but they get a big chunk of the profit.
 
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