Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[dullard]

Lots of bubbles showing up. The problem is when to sell. Too soon and you feel like an idiot, too late and you lose the opportunity of a lifetime.

With the S&P500 plowing into new record territory right now, I decided to move a small amount of my S&P500 fund and move it into a small cap fund (only ~0.5% of my portfolio). After 2 decades of tracking each other, they are now diverging. So, I locked in the S&P500 gains and bought the relatively cheaper small cap stocks.

I might do that over and over until the S&P500 bubble bursts (led mostly by the tech bubble). The goal is just to keep my portfolio in predefined ranges of each type of stock fund. That guarantees selling high and buying low without emotion.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought 3000 MBIO yesterday at .60, already up 400%. Still holding at 1.00 premarket.

I was watching a video yesterday about how pharma bro was active in WSB before many people knew about it trading risky small cap bios..the "black tar heroin" of gambling stocks.

While small cap bios are very risky I would say short expiration option bets are far more risky. Although I've seen some wild stories both good and bad in that regard.

While everything is a gamble overall, most highest risk gamblers go broke, eventually.

 

[biostud]

Even when buying Index funds, you can definitely pick the wrong ones.

My portfolio growth (automatic re-invest dividend):

From 2018
DJS World +77,7%
EU small Cap +17,3% (Changed to Stoxx 600 in 2024, due to lack of returns)
US Growth +127,6%

From 2022
Sust. US +19,9%
OMX C25 (Danish) +6,8%
Sust. World +13,9%

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

How far up is too far?

S&P is setting records almost daily some weeks. It can't possibly continue forever.

 

[dullard]

How far up is too far?

S&P is setting records almost daily some weeks. It can't possibly continue forever.

Bubbles pop far later and far faster (once they do pop) than most people expect.

 

[biostud]

How far up is too far?

S&P is setting records almost daily some weeks. It can't possibly continue forever.

Why not? It has been going up since it started?.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

^^^ Gradually. That's expected. Not by leaps and bounds like it has recently.


3,000 to 5,500 in less than 5 years when it took over 21 years to go from 1,000 to 3,000.

 

[AdamK47]

I have a 401K from a previous employer that I haven't contributed to in years. Kept it in a target date fund.

I looked at where it stands from the high at the end of 2021. It's only up 5% over that.

What up wit dat?

 

[biostud]

^^^ Gradually. That's expected. Not by leaps and bounds like it has recently.


3,000 to 5,500 in less than 5 years when it took over 21 years to go from 1,000 to 3,000.

As a long-time investor, it doesn't matter if it goes up 20% one year then drops 10% next year or simply grows 10% each year, the outcome is the same. (I know that it is not mathematically, just a simple example)

So sure, there might be a tech bubble driving the s&p 500 up, but in the long run it will still be a good investment.

The Surprising Truth About the S&P 500 and the “Magnificent 7” in 2024

Many investors use the S&P 500 as a shorthand for market performance. But is it an accurate picture of the US stock market overall? Or just a few top massive companies?

foolwealth.com

 

[dullard]

I have a 401K from a previous employer that I haven't contributed to in years. Kept it in a target date fund.

I looked at where it stands from the high at the end of 2021. It's only up 5% over that.

What up wit dat?

The US total stock market is up about 11% in that time frame. But international stocks are flat to maybe down in the last few years. Since many target date funds have a mix of both US and international stocks, you'll probably be in the 7% to 8% range. But then subtract the index fund fee (probably not too much) and your former employer's 401k fee (which can vary widely from nothing to massive) and you should be 5% to 8% (possibly even lower if your old 401k has high fees--generally true in smaller companies).

But, that only includes the stock portion. If you have it invested in a target date fund that is way out in the future, you should get about 5% to 8%. But if you have an earlier target date, they will start having more and more stable investments. Meaning, your balance won't swing as wildly as you approach and enter retirement. As a tradeoff, they will likely be earning less. Expect 3% to 5% in that case.

 

[jpiniero]

Pretty much most of the market cap gains are from the bubbly Tech stocks. Plus Bonds are still doing very poorly.

Even VTV is only up 35% from before the beginning of the pandemic, and that's with Berkshire (basically an Apple holding stock now) as the #1 holding.

 

[biostud]

12.06% YTD.

13.3% YTD

 

[biostud]

13.3% YTD

14.08%. YTD

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nvidia getting a little down draft. I still think 130/1300 is max for now.

 

[JTsyo]

Never realized how much movement there was for option pricing. Sold covered calls a year out for nVidia after the split and it was $1000 premium, last week they were up to $2k and now back to $1200. I'll have to be more cognizant of the price movements when selling these options in the future.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Never realized how much movement there was for option pricing. Sold covered calls a year out for nVidia after the split and it was $1000 premium, last week they were up to $2k and now back to $1200. I'll have to be more cognizant of the price movements when selling these options in the future.

Ah covered calls, the promising bet that never really pays off... for me anyway. Either I sell them on really hot stocks because Im "satisfied" with the profit limit of a very short term expiration (like tomorrow or same day) or I sell them for insurance on a downdraft to lower my "potential" loss.

For the hot stocks I usually buy them back at a loss and hopefully make a little capturing the difference dumping the stock. For the insurance plays on risky ones .. it turns out the short term dip down far exceeds the premium I received and now Im an official bag holder of the stock.

A recent example is Novavax. On NVAX, my basis was 18. It went to 20 the same day. I sold the 21 calls for 80 cents expiring in a day thinking I would pocket $4k.

Pre-market that piece of crap hit 27 dollars the next damn day! I could have dumped right there for $9,000 had I waited 24 hours. Instead the early gains were lost when the whales realized things werent what they seemed and stock opened at $20, it was all down hill from there. I only broke even on that stock. No $4k profit, no $9k profit. Zero profit.

 

[FelixDeCat]

My worst covered call "loss" was Gamestop in 2021. I had 1600 shares at $12.00, sold the $12.50 calls for $.50 expiring in 24 hours ($800 max profit). That was a Friday.



On Monday it hit a high of $40 ($44,800 profit the next business day). By next Friday it hit $103 ($145,000 profit in 7 days). But I settled for $800

Of course, GME did the unthinkable and you cant always count on that, but I sorely underestimated the potential.


*All prices split adjusted for 4 for 1 stock split.

 

[AdamK47]

Dabbling in GME and AMC was, and still is, gambling.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dabbling in GME and AMC was, and still is, gambling.

No one disagrees. Ironically however the GME shares I gave up at 12.50 would still be worth double even 3 years later.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I am trading ASTS right now. It's pricey and risky like everything else in the market. Long 8 Jan 10 calls at 3.90

 

[FelixDeCat]

I also didn't mention NNE. I started watching at $8 and finally got in at $13, selling the same day for $15.75.

Two days later the damn thing hit $35 before violently pulling back to $21.

The are developing small nuclear reactors but have none built yet and it might be years away so I was reluctant to buy much less hold. Yet the stock has been on fire as hopium spreads far and wide.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Victoria Gold tanked. Guessing it's related to this news:

UPDATE: Victoria Gold confirms heap leach pad failure and damage to mine infrastructure

Company says no one was injured in landslide. Some material from heap leach pad "left containment"

www.yukon-news.com

I bought in at around $16 a few years ago... Doh. I have lot of money in there too, several grand. It dropped a while back and I was waiting to see if it recovers but guess it will be a while now. I've been working towards getting out of individual stocks actually but was not in a position to sell.