Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,327
12,559
126
www.anyf.ca
Not exactly stock related but one of the mines here is having some unusual movement. Kinda reminds me of the Victoria Gold incident but not remotely as bad.


Going to delay operations for a bit though.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,488
3,199
136
Futures up bigingly hugely right now.

Watch the short sellers deflate the market after the open.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,471
3,965
126
Fed hinting at rate cuts. 😞
The fed said on Dec 13, 2023 that they are projecting three cuts in 2024 (number of cuts, amount of cuts, and timing of cuts would vary with additional data of course). This recent hint of cuts shouldn't come as any surprise to anyone. The early 2024 data was all too strong for early 2024 cuts or to go with more than three cuts. So, of course the likely outcome would be up to three cuts back loaded at the end of 2024.

There are three Federal Open Market Committee meetings left in 2024. They probably won't do all three cuts in a row--it'll likely be spread out a bit more into early to mid 2025. But, you should have been well prepared for this to happen at the end of 2024.

In preparation, I locked in a 13 month 5.2% CD earlier this week. This was with money that I needed shorter-term so stocks weren't a wise choice for it.
 
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Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,327
12,559
126
www.anyf.ca
So that we can trigger a big recession, have unemployment spike, and wages become depressed? I'm sure that will ease the suffering.

If steps were taken to reduce inflation or even create deflation, it which in turn would cause costs of everything were to go down why would it cause unemployment? If anything it could reduce unemployment as companies would perhaps slow down on layoffs and cut backs and people would also have more money to spend so the economy would get a boost.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,952
8,158
136
If steps were taken to reduce inflation or even create deflation, it which in turn would cause costs of everything were to go down why would it cause unemployment? If anything it could reduce unemployment as companies would perhaps slow down on layoffs and cut backs and people would also have more money to spend so the economy would get a boost.
Inflation is already down, so why do we need more steps to reduce it? In the US, most people's wages have kept up or exceeded inflation, particularly at the bottom of the economic ladder. If you're feeling squeezed because your wages aren't keeping up, perhaps you need to go out and get your bag in the form of another job.

Deflation is bad because people will stop spending money: you know, the activity that drives our economies. Deflation also means falling prices, which means companies will be squeezed - so they'll have to cut costs to compensate, which means lower salaries or slashing employment.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,488
3,199
136
Will there be a recession? Are we in a recession? Is there a recession? What is recession? Who is recession?

I have so many questions.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
70,095
28,685
136
Will there be a recession? Are we in a recession? Is there a recession? What is recession? Who is recession?

I have so many questions.
Of course not. We are in an election year so the party out of power will talk down the economy at every opportunity. Sometimes, 2000 for example, the politically motivated yammering triggers an actual recession by reducing consumer confidence.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,471
3,965
126
If steps were taken to reduce inflation or even create deflation, it which in turn would cause costs of everything were to go down why would it cause unemployment? If anything it could reduce unemployment as companies would perhaps slow down on layoffs and cut backs and people would also have more money to spend so the economy would get a boost.
Have you studied any economics at all? Virtually all incidences of deflation come with large amounts of unemployment. This has happened repeatedly throughout history in many countries.

Why? Think about owning a business. Deflation hits. People are buying less and less of your products (since the longer they wait to buy the cheaper they can get their stuff). Your competitors are all lowering their prices. In order to remain competitive, you must also lower prices. You are stuck with a dual blow of fewer sales and the sales you have are at lower prices. What do you do to attempt to retain profits and/or stay in business? Most of the time the answer is layoffs (which works well for your business as you are selling less and thus have less work to do). You could attempt to cut salaries, but usually that just ends with people quitting. Either way you look at it, you have fewer people employed at your business.

Then that cycle perpetuates. Fewer people working at your business (and those of your competitors) means less demand for goods and services. Less demand means lower sales and lower prices. Which means even more layoffs.
 
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AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,488
3,199
136
Of course not. We are in an election year so the party out of power will talk down the economy at every opportunity. Sometimes, 2000 for example, the politically motivated yammering triggers an actual recession by reducing consumer confidence.
US jobless claims accelerating quickly. Shows weakness in the economy. Market did a 180 on the news. VIX jumped 11% in just one hour.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,952
8,158
136
US jobless claims accelerating quickly. Shows weakness in the economy. Market did a 180 on the news. VIX jumped 11% in just one hour.
GDP is still up, unemployment is still at historic lows, job growth has continued.

You can't decide there is a recession with a single blip of data.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
70,095
28,685
136
On the other hand, my leading indicator for recessions is flashing. I use the condition of gas pumps to predict recessions. More out of order pumps are a harbinger of recessions. Gas stations are currently cutting back on maintenance of their pumps so a recession may be coming.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,684
3,693
136
Good thing the fed waited all this time to cut rates, risking a recession after grinding the housing market to a halt for the past 18 months.

At least the 10 year is way down on just their comments which will provide some relief before the actual cuts happen.
 
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