Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,103
5,661
136
US jobless claims accelerating quickly. Shows weakness in the economy. Market did a 180 on the news. VIX jumped 11% in just one hour.

You'd expect the stock market to go up and not down if that was the case. The unemployment numbers are very much still within range.

Good thing the fed waited all this time to cut rates, risking a recession after grinding the housing market to a halt for the past 18 months.

We need a recession to discourage people from overpaying for garbage housing, lol.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,685
3,694
136
We need a recession to stop people from overpaying for garbage housing, lol.
Nope, we need to build housing to stop that, not have a recession and artificial scarcity. Interest rates are not the right tool to solve that problem. Nice try though!
 
Reactions: Brainonska511

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,103
5,661
136
Nope, we need to build housing to stop that, not have a recession and artificial scarcity. Nice try though!

Building more would be helpful... but only in theory. Since new construction is too expensive to have any real impact on existing prices.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,989
8,244
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Nope, we need to build housing to stop that, not have a recession and artificial scarcity. Interest rates are not the right tool to solve that problem. Nice try though!
I'd love to stop overpaying for garbage housing, but that's all that has been allowed by local authorities who only listen to property owners that want to preserve their gains at the expense of society as a whole. But what I also know is that people becoming unemployed via a recession and not being able to afford their garbage housing would also be a bad thing.
 
Reactions: repoman0

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,685
3,694
136
Building more would be helpful... but only in theory. Since new construction is too expensive to have any real impact on existing prices.
Can you explain why housing is the one item in all of economics where increasing the supply doesn’t start to satisfy demand and lower prices? New housing is expensive, but reduces the bidding wars on existing stock, bringing prices down.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511
Dec 10, 2005
24,989
8,244
136
Building more would be helpful... but only in theory. Since new construction is too expensive to have any real impact on existing prices.
Only in theory? How about in practice. Austin has built a ton and real prices have fallen.

Filtering effects are also real. If I can afford newer housing with better amenities, why would I not buy that versus some older place I might need to pour time and money into to bring it up to my standards? In tight markets where "luxury homes" get built, people filter up their housing based on what they are willing to pay.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
15,103
5,661
136
Can you explain why housing is the one item in all of economics where increasing the supply doesn’t start to satisfy demand and lower prices?

Like I said, the prices are too high on new construction to have any real impact on existing.

Edit: See nVidia GPUs.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,989
8,244
136
Like I said, the prices are too high on new construction to have any real impact on existing.

Edit: See nVidia GPUs.
But people are paying those sky high prices, so they must be affordable to someone.

We could just allow developers to build at all levels of housing instead of creating conditions where only high-end stuff pencils put.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,685
3,694
136
But people are paying those sky high prices, so they must be affordable to someone.

We could just allow developers to build at all levels of housing instead of creating conditions where only high-end stuff pencils put.
Even high end stuff makes a difference. You live here too so you know there’s a bunch of small houses built in 1910 that need work and are worth a million bucks anyway. I happen to love my small old house but I could get a whole lot of quality new construction instead.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,989
8,244
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Even high end stuff makes a difference. You live here too so you know there’s a bunch of small houses built in 1910 that need work and are worth a million bucks anyway. I happen to love my small old house but I could get a whole lot of quality new construction instead.
Yep. Someone can buy those new million dollar condos. They'll either buy one of those, or they'll buy a crappy older place for 3/4 of the price and renovate it.

Having lived in a triple decker built in 1919 and now in a building built circa 2009, I much prefer the newer place. Less risk of burning to the ground, no asbestos, more outlets and better wiring, central air, sheet rock walls (instead of horse hair plaster), and windows that actually shut and lock.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,559
2,243
126
All the market volatility makes no sense. Gold hit a new record 2,500! 😱 😱 😱

Sell?
Buy?

Bought 5k RDHL .65
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,342
12,562
126
www.anyf.ca
On the other hand, my leading indicator for recessions is flashing. I use the condition of gas pumps to predict recessions. More out of order pumps are a harbinger of recessions. Gas stations are currently cutting back on maintenance of their pumps so a recession may be coming.

We basically already are in a recession it's just that they have not called it. Companies are constantly cutting back, laying off, running short staffed, running reduced hours, not giving bonuses or raises etc. Even things like pizza parties are a thing of the past, which is a meme in itself to show that companies will do anything but give raises or bonuses.

This explains the situation fairly well: https://www.fraserinstitute.org/article/reality-check-canadians-remain-mired-in-a-recession

Basically per capita GDP is down and that affects us more at an individual level, than the overall economy. Yeah "the economy" might be doing well, but people are not. At an individual level it basically is like a recession is happening. Population growth is also not helping. Too many people, too little jobs, houses, and overall resources.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,989
8,244
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That's why new construction is that much more expensive - they can't. Well, if they want to turn a profit. It pretty much has to be "luxury".
Yes. They can't because governments have added arbitrary restrictions that prevent cheaper methods of construction (or doing things that lower costs, such as faster development time). But again, people are still scooping these units up, so it's affordable to someone. In the Boston metro area, there are a lot of people with high paying jobs. They'll either scoop up the new stuff or outbid people on the older, crappier stuff. It works the same in many other popular places.

Anyway, luxury is just a fancy way to say "relatively new". And I've seen things even called "luxury affordable housing". But overall, a relatively meaningless term.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,342
12,562
126
www.anyf.ca
Reducing red tape would definitely go a long way for housing. That's Pierre Poilievre's plan if he becomes PM. Cities won't get funding unless they reduce construction red tape. I feel whatever he does probably still won't be enough but it's still a step in right direction at least. The whole permitting process is ridiculous when you think about it. You buy land, and you need to ask permission to build on land, and pay money to ask for permission. Then you pay more taxes because you built something with your money.

Unorganized townships get rid of all this BS, but they tend to be far from where jobs are. I guess that's sorta a good thing because if too many people decide to live in an unorganized area it could very well change. Unorganized townships are great for retirement though or if you have a 100% remote job.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,559
2,243
126
Intel crashes 11% after hours. 😞

Edit....now down 18%!

I think the fact that the latest CPUs have instability issues as well is not helping.
 
Last edited:

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
68,342
12,562
126
www.anyf.ca
Massive layoffs at Intel. 15% of their workforce.


Lots of layoffs across the board in tech actually.


 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,489
3,201
136
Amazon earnings miss. Down over 7% in after hours. Futures down.

Soon I'll be able to buy VGT for what I sold it for back in March.
 
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