Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[jpiniero]

RTO was often just a way to get employees to quit. Layoffs without payouts. https://www.msn.com/en-ie/money/car...s-were-meant-to-make-workers-quit/ar-BB1qyrUa

This is true. But if you're a company that's held back on hiring New Grads because of WFH... getting your old expensive employees to quit without doing layoffs isn't a bad thing in employers minds.

Course their 70% DTI mortgage isn't going to pay itself.

 

[jpiniero]

Yes started by the BOJ but we already had the shakes over here that the Fed is going to miss their window, especially after the last unemployment report came in higher than expected days after they decided not to cut.

The other thing is that when the Fed does start cutting rates, they don't want to have to reverse course if inflation starts to skyrocket again.

 

[nOOky]

Seems like the fed's goal for raising interest rates is finally becoming reality and everyone is surprised?

 

[jpiniero]

Intel btw is down another 7%, under $20. AMD's market cap is like double now.

 

[K1052]

The other thing is that when the Fed does start cutting rates, they don't want to have to reverse course if inflation starts to skyrocket again.

Probably a middle ground between fueling increasing market hysteria and not reigniting major inflation to be found here. Like a series of 25bps cuts that should have started at the last meeting.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sold everything, including my SAVA calls....for a tny profit.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Intel btw is down another 7%, under $20. AMD's market cap is like double now.

Sadly Intel isn't even worth $13 IMO. Remember when AMD was a $5 stock?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Probably a middle ground between fueling increasing market hysteria and not reigniting major inflation to be found here. Like a series of 25bps cuts that should have started at the last meeting.

One Fed governor said this morning on CNBC that keeping the stock market up isn't a Fed mandate. Just jobs and price stability.

 

[K1052]

One Fed governor said this morning on CNBC that keeping the stock market up isn't a Fed mandate. Just jobs and price stability.

I'd ask that same governor if they are worried about making a policy mistake in the face of rising unemployment having basically achieved their inflation reduction goals.

There is more than one reason to have started slowly cutting here and I'm not one of the lunatics arguing for an emergency 100bps cut to prop the stock market.

 

[biostud]

The other thing is that when the Fed does start cutting rates, they don't want to have to reverse course if inflation starts to skyrocket again.

It is not going to sky rocket fir several reasons:

Inflation is primarily caused by housing, car insurance and groceries, not a wage spiral.

If you remove these the rest of inflation is close to 2%.

Inflation doesn't sky rocket if you lower 0,5-0,75 and then take a break.

They are running the FED either full speed or full brake, instead of raising the slowly when inflation goes up and lower it slowly when it goes down.

This way you'll get a bumpy ride instead of a smooth sailing, just because they want to have so much "data" that their windows of opportunities closes again and again.

 

[K1052]

Inflation is primarily caused by housing

This component is something made worse by the higher for longer strategy also. Hard to reduce housing inflation when high rates have collapsed multifamily starts.

 

[AdamK47]

The market sell off is diminishing. Cooler heads are prevailing. At least for today.

 

[biostud]

Course propping up the Stock Market isn't in their mandate either.

I saw someone claim that the source of this selloff is a rate hike in Japan, causing JP traders to sell stocks to cover their losses because they were so overextended.

Obviously they shouldn't care about the stock market.

They should fight inflation, which they failed. They should ensure economic stability and low unemployment, which they are about to fail at as well.

What I'm surprised about is how little criticism there is of the fed in the media.

 

[dullard]

What I'm surprised about is how little criticism there is of the fed in the media.

1) This round of inflation was one of the least severe (inflation ran much higher many times in history, including 5 periods of higher inflation rates in the last 100 years in the US)
2) This round of inflation was one of the shortest in time (only ~2 years of bad inflation vs 9 years from 1973 to 1982)
3) This round of inflation is the only one so far solved without a recession or depression.

Considering that the inflation was caused by things outside the fed's control (shortages, shipping woes, tariffs, massive stimulus rounds), that actual result should be praised.

 

[repoman0]

A big part of the fed’s job is just talking and making forward projections known. The overnight rate of 5.3% is irrelevant to businesses borrowing to keep the doors open or grow because the longer term 2 and 10 year rates are already under 4%. Corporate bond rates will be some premium on top of those rates, not the overnight and short term rates. That Chicago fed guy’s CNBC appearance saying that “the fed will fix things” is just as good as a rate cut in a lot of ways — make the markets know it’s coming and they’re watching so real rates start to trend down.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think we retouch the lows this week and maybe get into QQQ below 400, a 25% pullback from the all time high.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Me not smiling.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

"3) This round of inflation is the only one so far solved without a recession or depression."


Are we still sure it isn't out there?

 

[IEC]

I think the next 6 months will make abundantly clear that we missed the narrow window of opportunity for a soft landing.

 

[AdamK47]

I think we retouch the lows this week and maybe get into QQQ below 400, a 25% pullback from the all time high.

September is normally a weak month. You don't think the sell off will extend into next month?

 

[bookem dano]

Sadly Intel isn't even worth $13 IMO. Remember when AMD was a $5 stock?

I do....I also remember when it was < $2....picked some up back then in 2008. My last $2 purchase was in 2015. My first purchase was in 2001 for $24.20 so for awhile it wasn't that good.

 

[dullard]

"3) This round of inflation is the only one so far solved without a recession or depression."


Are we still sure it isn't out there?

Maybe the "So far" was in a bad location in the sentence. No we aren't certain. But, so far, there hasn't been one.

 

[FelixDeCat]

September is normally a weak month. You don't think the sell off will extend into next month?

Yes, that is what I am saying. QQQ is currently about 434, so for it to go below 400 ...would indicate a pullback.

But I am not sure so I am not short either. I am just sitting on my hands.

Remember the 52 week high for the QQQ was a hair above 500!

 

[repoman0]

I need the panic to last a few more weeks. Getting a big final paycheck since I have six weeks of vacation banked, and will be rolling my pension balance into a 401k. After I use all that to buy total market funds it can go right back up

 

[Dr. Detroit]

The market sell off is diminishing. Cooler heads are prevailing. At least for today.

LOL - as head into the market close...