Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[linkgoron]

Gotta put that in perspective. 2.9% is still lower than the average inflation rate over the last few decades/century. It just happens to be higher than the fed's ridiculously precise and low 2.0% goal. A 2% +- 1% range (1% to 3%) would have been a heck of a lot smarter for them. But then engineers that are tasked with making goals actually achievable are rarely involved in politics or political decisions.

There is enormous economic pressure to lower the current rate even though current rates are not high interest historically. I dislike that on one hand we're talking about inflation as relatively on target historically, but ignoring that rates are low historically as well. Also, the 2% target is relatively new historically speaking, and was only set "explicitly" in 2012 (although I think that it's been unofficially used since the late 90s in the US).

If we look at what people expect, which is probably pre-covid I'd prefer to look at the last decade. If we look at the past decade (ignoring 2021/2022/2023) only two years had significantly higher inflation than 2%. 2011 at 3% and 2018 at 2.44%, with most years having inflation below 2% or just above.

In general, I think that the inflation numbers are fundamentally cooked. I think that "actual" inflation is much higher, and that's the general feeling from everybody that I know. I know that my "core" expenses have risen much higher in recent years than what inflation would suggest, and housing is also through the roof.

 

[biostud]

Any chance that Musk will buy stocks in Truth or that X will buy Truth? And if so how should invest to make most of it?

 

[Charmonium]

@biostud -- I'm pretty sure that the universal consensus on DJT is that it's a sucker's bet. Aside from the fact that the underlying company is constantly losing vastly more that whatever their piddly cash flow is, there's also the fact that Trump is going to dump his millions of shares as soon as the lock is off.

He may have even pledged most of them already for cash. I read this a while ago. Despite shares being locked, it's not illegal to pledge them to someone. Talk about 12 lane honking loophole.

 

[dullard]

Any chance that Musk will buy stocks in Truth or that X will buy Truth? And if so how should invest to make most of it?

You would have to buy DJT, hope it goes up, and sell it before Trump or any of the other insiders do. I believe this lock-up ends 150 days from the merger, which would be Mar 26, 2024 + (150 days) = Aug 23, 2024 (give or take a day). Good luck!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Any chance that Musk will buy stocks in Truth or that X will buy Truth? And if so how should invest to make most of it?

There is a better chance that this is picture of a cow:

 

[biostud]

There is a better chance that this is picture of a cow:

View attachment 105669

Are telling me to short Truth?

 

[Charmonium]

There is a better chance that this is picture of a cow:

View attachment 105669

Hey babe. Moo and what not. Howz ya doin'

It just pisses me off that the Dumpster is going to walk away with a shitload of new money. And if he follows his std 3 page playbook, he'll give stiffing all of his creditors, like NYS, his best effort. But Ms. James don't play like that.

All of the money will end up going to lawyers anyway so . . . I guess I can live with that.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Are telling me to short Truth?

Hey babe. Moo and what not. Howz ya doin'

It just pisses me off that the Dumpster is going to walk away with a shitload of new money. And if he follows his std 3 page playbook, he'll give stiffing all of his creditors, like NYS, his best effort. But Ms. James don't play like that.

All of the money will end up going to lawyers anyway so . . . I guess I can live with that.

But what if he loses? I have no position long or short.

November 15th calls price in 20% move up and put options figure in 35% decline as of Friday after the election.

 

[dullard]

But what if he loses? I have no position long or short.

I'm failing to see how DJT succeeds whether he wins or loses. It needs to find revenue to stay afloat. At this point, revenue is basically nothing (less than $1M for the last three quarters). Is the argument that if Trump wins that advertisers will just suddenly flock to the platform? DJT needs a bare minimum of $100M quarterly revenue to justify its current $22.50 share price on anything other than hope/grift.

As it stands right now, DJT might close at the lowest price since the merger. And that is before the selling lockup period ends soon.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I'm failing to see how DJT succeeds whether he wins or loses. It needs to find revenue to stay afloat. At this point, revenue is basically nothing (less than $1M for the last three quarters). Is the argument that if Trump wins that advertisers will just suddenly flock to the platform? DJT needs a bare minimum of $100M quarterly revenue to justify its current $22.50 share price on anything other than hope/grift.

As it stands right now, DJT might close at the lowest price since the merger. And that is before the selling lockup period ends soon.

I don't think anyone other than Trump himself thinks the venture is currently viable.

SPACS tend to wind up under the $10 offer price, even the best of them like ASTS once did. ASTS earned its current $36 price (or at least the market thinks so).

As previously mentioned the biggest problem with SPACs is that far too many shares are issued at conception so even the worst companies are given multi billion dollar valuations on day one no matter how terrible the company (or revenue and profit less it is).

The majority of them I have seen go completely bankrupt or reverse split to eliminate outstanding shares....then the company dilutes again to stay alive.

Just terrible. 😕

 

[Charmonium]

If we could tap into the stupidity of rabid Trumpies, we could do amazing things.

Like what?

IDK, but they'd be amazing.

 

[Charmonium]

BoJ saying that they're looking at another rate increase. So today we might get to see just how "unwound" the carry trade is.

All of the real gamblers will just call that "jaw-boning." But of course, they're always the first to get boned.

The talking heads seem to agree that we'll get a full bp (basis point) cut by the end of the year. But remember, these are the very same folks that told you 'SELL SELL SELL' Mortimer because there would be a recession in 2023. Morons.

Remember, when the Fed raised rates (later than was wise), they did so with a vengeance. That tells me that they'll go as far and fast as is prudent and when necessary, if not especially prudent.

 

[repoman0]

I just need one down day to dump the rest of the money from a recent car sale into VTI. I put 60% of it in early last week and should have done it all. Feels weird buying so much at all time highs but the most likely result after one all time high is another all time high ...

 

[Brainonska511]

I just need one down day to dump the rest of the money from a recent car sale into VTI. I put 60% of it in early last week and should have done it all. Feels weird buying so much at all time highs but the most likely result after one all time high is another all time high ...

Funny, I was looking yesterday and most of my stuff in Vanguard has completely recovered from the big dip the other week.

I have some money I got from a life insurance policy and the final zeroing out of another relative's estate: after an initial dump shortly after I received it, I set up automatic investments to auto-buy in set amounts ever other week over some extended period of time. No point trying to time the market.

 

[nOOky]

My inherited Vanguard is up about $2k from a low of about $2k down in the past 3 weeks. My 401k is the highest it's ever been after recovering also, as is my Roth. My emergency fund I put in a 7 month CD 7 months ago because I was tired of earning .5%, it made about $280 and I'll renew it again for another 7 months since rates are going to drop for savers.
I have a small amount from my HSA I'm investing in a fairly risky mix, I did not invest it all because it appears I'll need about $4k worth of dental work done from that.

 

[repoman0]

Funny, I was looking yesterday and most of my stuff in Vanguard has completely recovered from the big dip the other week.

I have some money I got from a life insurance policy and the final zeroing out of another relative's estate: after an initial dump shortly after I received it, I set up automatic investments to auto-buy in set amounts ever other week over some extended period of time. No point trying to time the market.

But dollar cost averaging over time is timing the market statistically the best thing to do is dump it all in right away. With that in mind I just put the rest of the car money in so I can stop worrying about it. It’s a small percentage of my portfolio and I’ll keep averaging in every week from my paychecks anyway.

 

[Brainonska511]

But dollar cost averaging over time is timing the market statistically the best thing to do is dump it all in right away. With that in mind I just put the rest of the car money in so I can stop worrying about it. It’s a small percentage of my portfolio and I’ll keep averaging in every week from my paychecks anyway.

I know that it is best to dump it all in right away. A part of it was psychological and a part of it was I needed time to make sure I didn't need a chunk sooner.

 

[dullard]

I have a small amount from my HSA I'm investing in a fairly risky mix, I did not invest it all because it appears I'll need about $4k worth of dental work done from that.

If you can swing it financially, you should consider NOT withdrawing the $4k from the HSA yet. All you need to do is to keep the receipt (to keep it easy, take a photo with your cell phone and store that file). Then the $4k can grow tax free within the HSA for however long you want. Then at any point in the future, even decades later, you can always cash out that $4k tax free while keeping all earnings tax free in the HSA.

Of course, not everyone has a spare $4k to do that.

 

[nOOky]

If you can swing it financially, you should consider NOT withdrawing the $4k from the HSA yet. All you need to do is to keep the receipt (to keep it easy, take a photo with your cell phone and store that file). Then the $4k can grow tax free within the HSA for however long you want. Then at any point in the future, even decades later, you can always cash out that $4k tax free while keeping all earnings tax free in the HSA.

Of course, not everyone has a spare $4k to do that.

Yea I know I can do that, I already have a pile of receipts on my desk for the future. I do have enough spare cash I could also pay for it, I just keep some of my HSA for actual bills, not all in invested.

 

[biostud]

I know that it is best to dump it all in right away. A part of it was psychological and a part of it was I needed time to make sure I didn't need a chunk sooner.

Isn’t dollar cost averaging just a solution for when you don't have all the money you want to invest up front and be sure that they actually get invested instead of spend on something else?

 

[Brainonska511]

Isn’t dollar cost averaging just a solution for when you don't have all the money you want to invest up front and be sure that they actually get invested instead of spend on something else?

Dollar cost averaging is just a method to even out the bumps. You can have the money to invest now, but you don't have to play games to time things right. You just pick regular intervals to purchase investments.

In the long run, it's been shown that just investing lump sums up front is a little better. But psychologically, because we can sometimes think more short term, it can *feel* beneficial to trickle money in over a fixed period of time.

 

[Brainonska511]

Yea I know I can do that, I already have a pile of receipts on my desk for the future. I do have enough spare cash I could also pay for it, I just keep some of my HSA for actual bills, not all in invested.

Highly recommend taking pictures of the receipts for archiving, especially if they're on receipt tape. I keep a running spreadsheet of healthcare-related expenses with dates, amounts, brief description, link to the receipt, and whether I've claimed it (ie, withdrawn money to cover that expense). Mildly annoying to set up at first, but once it was set up, it's easy to add expenses as they come in.

 

[Charmonium]

Isn’t dollar cost averaging just a solution for when you don't have all the money you want to invest up front and be sure that they actually get invested instead of spend on something else?

Pretty much. Besides necessity, the only other reason I can think of is if somehow you suspect that the market is overbought.

It's still, in essence, a form of market timing. It's only real virtues are a) occasionally, you'll be right and b) if not, your losses are theoretical rather than actual. A loss is still a loss though. But if you feel comfortable in your ability to tell when the market is frothy, you might be right more often than wrong.

 

[AdamK47]

Isn’t dollar cost averaging just a solution for when you don't have all the money you want to invest up front and be sure that they actually get invested instead of spend on something else?

Everyone with a 401K is doing it. For me it's the 15th and last day of the month.

 

[IronWing]

Everyone with a 401K is doing it. For me it's the 15th and last day of the month.

Which is irksome. The big traders know when the big 401k/403B/TSP money hits and knows where most of that money is going. They can time their trades to profit from the predictable infusion of funds. "Gee, the eagle shits on Fridays and I bet the money is going to the S&P 500 companies." The plans should add a random investment date algorithm to their investing.