Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[AdamK47]

We have not seen the S&P 500 plunge to such depths in… three weeks.

Three to five weeks ago was just a sneak peek.

 

[jpiniero]

I didn't have the DOJ being the ones to end AI hype... but here we are?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Crashy crashy....as predicted. QQQ sub 400 by YE.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sell.

 

[Charmonium]

The Fed has all but guaranteed a rate cut at the end of the month. Don't fight the Fed.

 

[biostud]

Allan Lichtman's 13 keys model says POTUS will be Harris.

Historically September and October are bad months. Perhaps we will see a short-term jump coinciding with rate cuts. I'm a bit leery of what happens afterwards.

I set up a fond for each of my kids, and our fourth child is expected to arrive around September 10th

 

[jpiniero]

The Fed has all but guaranteed a rate cut at the end of the month. Don't fight the Fed.

AI Hype is a bigger deal right now than any rate cuts.

 

[AdamK47]

AI Hype is a bigger deal right now than any rate cuts.

Not until tech companies get everyone returned to the office.

 

[jpiniero]

Not until tech companies get everyone returned to the office.

I personally haven't looked much, but anecdotally from people I've talked to on the subject that remote jobs are tough to come by. But the numbers drawing unemployment still remains very low which suggests there are still a lot of people in their pre-pandemic role and still WFH.

Kind of makes you wonder the people complaining on Reddit, etc, about not finding a job are only looking at remote jobs and striking out. Then their unemployment runs out.

If the DOJ is serious about going after nVidia... yeah that could crash the stock market.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Full time jobs that pay enough to cover the ever increasing costs of living are getting harder to come by now, and definitely remote ones are even more rare as most companies want people back in the office. It's also at a point where a minimum wage job is hardly worth it, because just the cost of going to the job, having clothes appropriate for it etc is higher than what you'll make. Also most of those are being taken up by immigrants now, as the government pays their salary.

Speaking of jobs, they just announced that unemployment rate up to 6.6% today.

Canada’s unemployment rate rises to 6.6% in challenging market for job seekers

Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.6 per cent in August, with 1.5 million Canadians unemployed last month. Read more

financialpost.com

They dropped the interest rate though, so at least going into debt is a bit cheaper!

 

[biostud]

Our mortgage is going down from 4% to 3% in 2025, saving us ~$70 after taxes each month.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Holy carp.... I just thought of something else...besides the market continuing to tank because it perceives a much larger slowdown than expected, Kamala's much needed tax hikes on corporations and individuals but crazy price control plan (see Nixon's WIN plan from the early 70s).... but now you have figure in something else..

Budget drama.

The debt limit was suspended until 1/1/2025. There is already grumblings if Kamala wins and its likely she will, the Republicans will refuse to raise the debt limit again. So after the sharp pull back that happens when a Democrat wins and only 60 days until another possible government shutdown, the lame duck Biden will be the only one to deal with Republican hold outs to increase our gargantuan national debt of $35T.

I still see another 10 to 20% decline from here until next Feb or March 2025.

 

[AdamK47]

Those of you that put politics as the major driver for the market (even with the election) will miss out by making moves based on your own biases.

 

[Indus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1832508262316699871

Apparently our bottle of Jamesons and other spirits is gonna cost us a lot more because of him.

And how much do you think the stock market hit will be?



Sigh MAGA: Make Americans Grim Again!

 

[FelixDeCat]

CPI data tomorrow.....👻 👽 😱

 

[AdamK47]

September and October are my favorite months

 

[FelixDeCat]

September and October are my favorite months

The market seems to be bewildered with no clear direction at the moment.

 

[biostud]

The market seems to be bewildered with no clear direction at the moment.

Just like the rest of us

 

[AdamK47]

Investors are betting on a 50 basis point rate cut. Pricing it in.

I think we'll get 25 points and there will be pullback.

 

[Charmonium]

.75 isn't off the table yet. Since they're switching to prioritizing the labor market, it's probably not a bad idea to be more aggressive than they might otherwise choose. If it turns out in hindsight that it premature, just skip a couple of months. Absolutely NO ONE thinks this is going to be a one or 2 cut deal. THIS is the new trend so trying to swim against the current is not wise.

 

[Charmonium]

It seems that demand for Apple's new product cycle might be kinda 'squishy.' Nobody likes squishy. Well jelly donuts i guess.

 

[bookem dano]

Holy carp.... I just thought of something else...besides the market continuing to tank because it perceives a much larger slowdown than expected, Kamala's much needed tax hikes on corporations and individuals but crazy price control plan (see Nixon's WIN plan from the early 70s).... but now you have figure in something else..

Budget drama.

The debt limit was suspended until 1/1/2025. There is already grumblings if Kamala wins and its likely she will, the Republicans will refuse to raise the debt limit again. So after the sharp pull back that happens when a Democrat wins and only 60 days until another possible government shutdown, the lame duck Biden will be the only one to deal with Republican hold outs to increase our gargantuan national debt of $35T.

I still see another 10 to 20% decline from here until next Feb or March 2025.

Anyone look at politicians trades before and after the debt ceiling 'negotiations'?

 

[Charmonium]

Congress 'minions' might not be synonymous with "insider"trading, i think it's more of perk.

 

[Dave_5k]

Amazon announcing layoffs without announcing layoffs, labor market well past peak?

Amazon workers must return to office full time, CEO says

Andy Jassy, who took over from founder Jeff Bezos in 2020, said the move was designed to foster greater collaboration.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[FelixDeCat]

There is no reason to rush rate cuts. None. But then I argue for none at all. People always want a free lunch.