Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

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Nov 17, 2019
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6,692
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This is stupid. At one point I noticed the S&P at 4,999.13

That was just at a glance. I didn't see if it hit the magic number or not, but it fell back again.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
This is stupid. At one point I noticed the S&P at 4,999.13

That was just at a glance. I didn't see if it hit the magic number or not, but it fell back again.
It did briefly surpass 5000 yesterday, but if you just look at standard 15 minute intervals, you'll likely miss that brief excursion. Looks like an opening above 5000 is likely today however.

I wouldn't say that stock pauses at round numbers is stupid. It actually is a fairly common occurrence. Large players often use limit orders. Either buy at price $X or sell at price $Y. It just so happens that the prices X and Y tend to be just above or below round numbers. Why? Because of human nature and because they are trying to beat the rest of the market to get their limit order in.
1) Humans are terrible at random looking numbers. If someone wants to sell a stock at a high point, they don't say, well lets sell at $5019.42. Instead, they say sell at $5000. Same goes with buying.

2) if you want to actually get your limit order to sell at $5000 to go through, you have to do it before everyone else's limit order to sell at $5000 kicks in. So, often the limit order is set at $4995, or $4999. That way you get to sell yours at close to your price point (as opposed to letting others sell first and you risk never get your order to go through).

Combined these look like plateaus on a stock market chart. The stock will rise, then plateau near a round number, then rise again, only to plateau at the next round number. The same pattern often occurs when stocks fall.
 

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,304
2,910
126
Averaged in VGT 67% and VOO 33% since September. VGT rebalanced in June and became very MSFT and AAPL heavy. About 20% each followed by NVDA at about 5%. It has been outperforming QQQ over the past 6 months.
 

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Good sign for NYCB.

New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:NYCB) stock perked up 14.8% in Friday afternoon trading after disclosing the company's CEO and other insiders purchased more than 200K shares of the stock, which has lost about half its value since posting a surprise Q4 loss last week.

CEO Thomas Cangemi bought about 11K shares of NYCB on Friday, according to SEC filings. Recently-appointed Executive Chairman Alessandro DiNello bought 50K shares of NYCB on Friday. Other insiders, including the bank's board, also acquired shares.



I can't gloat yet, as the bears and bulls will fight this one out until the CRE issue is resolved.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
Good sign for NYCB.

New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:NYCB) stock perked up 14.8% in Friday afternoon trading after disclosing the company's CEO and other insiders purchased more than 200K shares of the stock, which has lost about half its value since posting a surprise Q4 loss last week.

CEO Thomas Cangemi bought about 11K shares of NYCB on Friday, according to SEC filings. Recently-appointed Executive Chairman Alessandro DiNello bought 50K shares of NYCB on Friday. Other insiders, including the bank's board, also acquired shares.



I can't gloat yet, as the bears and bulls will fight this one out until the CRE issue is resolved.

Looks like that was a good call to buy some NYCB as a gamble.... however... I've been burned buying troubled financials so many times I've learned my lesson. Even King Charles Schwab III (SCHW) still has not fully recovered from last year.

 

MrSquished

Lifer
Jan 14, 2013
21,783
20,140
136
Looks like that was a good call to buy some NYCB as a gamble.... however... I've been burned buying troubled financials so many times I've learned my lesson. Even King Charles Schwab III (SCHW) still has not fully recovered from last year.

View attachment 93559
You should put it all in Tesla. Elon is a god. He knows about the democrats importing migrants to vote illegally. And the cars are fantastic, especially the truck. Go all in bro!
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
I can't gloat yet, as the bears and bulls will fight this one out until the CRE issue is resolved.

Until RTO really gets going... I can't see CRE doing well. Especially if they are that exposed to NYC CRE. Still not a bad idea if you are willing to let it ride.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
Until RTO really gets going... I can't see CRE doing well. Especially if they are that exposed to NYC CRE. Still not a bad idea if you are willing to let it ride.
I love when talking heads on financial news sites start talking about Commercial Real Estate (CRE). CRE is all encompassing and includes many types of structures from office buildings, hotels, apartment complexes, car washes, oil change centers, restaurants, stand alone retail buildings like Dollar Generals or bank branches, large condominiums, data center hotels and even single family rental real estate. I see these types of loans being made all day long for the last 10 years. Less than 2% wind up nonperforming.

However because downtown office space is struggling in large metro areas, the financial press condemns all CRE which is catregoricly stupid because of its variety and complexity.

Thats not to say there are not risks. A big recession like we had from 2008 to 2012 was disasterous to banks that had loans secured by real estate and extended to commercial borrowers who were in precarious financial condition because of a variety of factors from the stock market crash, loss of rent payors or retail customers and generally people spending less because of high unemployment, a sluggish economy and credit tightening by banks who had too many bad loans on their books and were reluctant to loan to people because credit risk was too high. A perfect storm of circular problems.
 
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AgaBoogaBoo

Lifer
Feb 16, 2003
26,107
4
81
Yes, hybrids are great (particularly for 1-car households or those without reliable access to charging), but these are all theoretical discussions, aren't they? Americans have shown that they have a "preference" for land tanks based on what they buy.

*Preference in quotes, because it really goes hand-in-hand with decades of advertising telling people that they need some huge vehicle so that auto companies could sell more profitable vehicles.
I generally agree, but can you blame them? Americans are like any other humans. If you go back in history, they were doing the same buying big(ger)/heavier/uneconomical cars before the 1973 oil crisis began and after that, for decades, they were collectively moving towards lighter, smaller, more fuel efficient cars. It's turned more recently, I think somewhere around the 2000-2010 period (I don't have the data handy) and they went to bigger cars along with improved fuel economy (more hybrid SUV offerings today for example) and at least since 2014, relatively cheap gasoline prices.

I don't like people getting used to living like kings/queens with giant cars, but it's almost just a natural outcome of low interest rates, cheap gas, and as you mention, the marketing element that leads to a bit of a cultural trend - as others do it, it becomes more acceptable... I think it's stupid myself, but don't think it's a surprise.

I think they'll adjust whenever the environment flips. I don't wish ill on others, but things like this don't really remain a certain way forever. Higher gas prices wouldn't surprise me in the next few years. Insurance costs and interest rates are already moving up, so wouldn't surprise me if people want to move into more economical cars in the future.

I don't get the SUV binge - for those who need the space, minivans might be better even if it doesn't have the same image.
 
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AgaBoogaBoo

Lifer
Feb 16, 2003
26,107
4
81
The EV market will probably increase to 10% of new car sales this year in the US. That's 2 million cars that will never use a drop of oil. The increased volume will see improvements in battery technology and charging infrastructure far faster than if we'd sit on our hands for decades hoping plug in hybrids catch on. What kind of long distance charging infrastructure would get built if everybody was driving hybrids? Zero.

There is a problem with the market being full of large expensive EV models. That will change over time though.
Hybrids and PHEVs allow more to convert their daily commute away from fossil fuels and this drastically improves air quality in cities. Would we rather have 30% of cars be PHEV or 5-10% pure BEV? PHEVs also allow more people to put in outlets to charge overnight as well... at least when it comes to EV ownership, the dedicated overnight plug matters more for 99% of use.

Edit: Modified my reply... I was a bit rude in the previous version. Sorry.
 
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KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
How many people have to be laid off before we stop buying things? I was surprised to see CPI tick up and its because of demand. People are still buying, so prices will stay high and so will interest rates.
 
Reactions: FelixDeCat

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,528
3,441
136
How many people have to be laid off before we stop buying things? I was surprised to see CPI tick up and its because of demand. People are still buying, so prices will stay high and so will interest rates.
I looked at the data and feel like the “inflation ticked up” headline is kind of BS. Shelter is up a lot because of course it is, there isn’t enough of it and interest rates are high … thanks to the fed trying to kill inflation. Real food like veggies and meats are actually cheaper. Energy is cheaper. Medical care is higher and will always be too high because of structural problems with the whole system in the US. Typical market overreaction but people have probably been looking for an excuse to take some profits.

 
Reactions: Brainonska511

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,304
2,910
126
I've been hooked on the YouTube show "Financial Audit". It usually centers around the 20 to low 30 something age demographic. It's amazing just how financially illiterate young generations are. Spending money they don't have racking up massive debt. Debt on top of record amounts of student loans debt. Most don't own homes and pay monthly rent that would seem silly just a few years prior.

When I think about those that contribute to increasing inflation, I think of these people.
 

repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
4,528
3,441
136
I've been hooked on the YouTube show "Financial Audit". It usually centers around the 20 to low 30 something age demographic. It's amazing just how financially illiterate young generations are. Spending money they don't have racking up massive debt. Debt on top of record amounts of student loans debt. Most don't own homes and pay monthly rent that would seem silly just a few years prior.

When I think about those that contribute to increasing inflation, I think of these people.
Every generation is filled with financially illiterate people. That dumb YouTube show should spend an episode or three focusing on all the boomers retiring with nothing but social security despite actually growing up in an environment where it’s possible for everyone to save.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511

AdamK47

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
15,304
2,910
126
The fuck? Every generation is filled with financially illiterate people. That dumb YouTube show should spend an episode or three focusing on all the boomers retiring with nothing but social security despite actually growing up in an environment where it’s possible for everyone to save.
Yes, there are plenty from older generations that are financially unstable. We live in an age where the most basic guidance on financial success is seconds away with a search on the Internet. Despite that, younger generations are still failing financially.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,304
7,165
136
Yes, there are plenty from older generations that are financially unstable. We live in an age where the most basic guidance on financial success is seconds away with a search on the Internet. Despite that, younger generations are still failing financially.
Tale as old as time: old people crapping on young people.
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
69,446
27,703
136
Yes, there are plenty from older generations that are financially unstable. We live in an age where the most basic guidance on financial success is seconds away with a search on the Internet. Despite that, younger generations are still failing financially.
Still the best primer on personal finance ever produced:


It applies to all generations. Younger generations got shafted by greedy old people so I can't fault them for student loan debt.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
How many people have to be laid off before we stop buying things? I was surprised to see CPI tick up and its because of demand. People are still buying, so prices will stay high and so will interest rates.
We aren't even laying people off in total. The US gained 350k jobs last month and has been gaining net jobs for quite some time (37 straight job reports). A long stretch of job gains does not naturally lead to us stopping buying things.

That said, inflation isn't really bad any more. The historical average is 3.16% year over year (averaging yearly US inflation data from 1929 to 2024). Which is right where we are at and have been at for a while now (see the inflation chart below with historical average marked). I can't really accept that the fed thinks 2% should be the goal.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
I've been hooked on the YouTube show "Financial Audit". It usually centers around the 20 to low 30 something age demographic. It's amazing just how financially illiterate young generations are. Spending money they don't have racking up massive debt. Debt on top of record amounts of student loans debt. Most don't own homes and pay monthly rent that would seem silly just a few years prior.

When I think about those that contribute to increasing inflation, I think of these people.

Its funny you bring this up, I saw his channel for the first time today. In the video I say he looks like a beady eyed creeper.

However you will see one common theme, he usually interviews cute young women in their 20s.

Coincidence? I think not! Here is the video I watched:


He knows attractive women attract views, despite the subject of finance which most people find to be a dry topic.
 
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