Discussion ***Official*** 2024 Stock Market Thread 💰

[FelixDeCat]

Also, inflation is in "no ways" finished! The FED may have to HIKE rates.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

I've been hooked on the YouTube show "Financial Audit". It usually centers around the 20 to low 30 something age demographic. It's amazing just how financially illiterate young generations are. Spending money they don't have racking up massive debt. Debt on top of record amounts of student loans debt. Most don't own homes and pay monthly rent that would seem silly just a few years prior.

When I think about those that contribute to increasing inflation, I think of these people.

I get a kick out of the Reddit boards where kids just out of high school don't even know how to use a credit card or checking account. They literally ask 'When do I pay my card?' or 'How much should I pay'?

Then I see posters who say they are in their late 20s with six figure salaries asking the same questions.

Then there's the 'I pay the minimum due every month, why are they charging me interest?' crowd.

 

[AdamK47]

Its funny you bring this up, I saw his channel for the first time today. In the video I say he looks like a beady eyed creeper.

However you will see one common theme, he usually interviews cute young women in their 20s.

Coincidence? I think not! Here is the video I watched:

He knows attractive women attract views, despite the subject of finance which most people find to be a dry topic.

This is a good one.

All you need to do is "manifest" wealth.

 

[Charmonium]

Also, inflation is in "no ways" finished! The FED may have to HIKE rates.

Yup. That would explain the 500+ drop today. The market was already overbought. I think the S&P was trading at 24 times earnings. They didn't say if that was future or trailing so I'm going to guess trailing. If so, then the term "overbought" is relative.

The foreign aid bill could also be part of the problem. It's pretty clear that the House is going to pass this (f*** MJ). The Ds only need something like 4 or 5 votes to get a discharge petition thru and unless those Rs flip flop like they did on the border deal, 100B will soon be flowing into the economy since pretty much all of that money goes to pay US defense contractors.

I mentioned this a while ago - December I think. All of that cash being spent is going to goose the money supply which in turn means that the fed has to slurp up the excess liquidity which in turn means rates have to go up.

But it's not like a risk-free rate of 4 or 5% is evil. It just means that money is tighter. But the economy generates its own money thru fractional reserve banking. So on one hand we have a spike in govt spending together with the money multiplier which then amplifies that 100B.

So you have a lot of major and potentially countervailing forces at work and it's still very much a black art as to how a central bank is supposed to manage that.

 

[jpiniero]

Also, inflation is in "no ways" finished! The FED may have to HIKE rates.

Higher would surprise me... but the Fed could easily leave rates where they are and not really hurt the economy as long as the Treasury doesn't have any problem getting people to buy Treasuries. The stock market OTOH...

 

[biostud]

I have 6 index funds and one has been very lackluster the last 2.5 years. It's a EU small cap, so given the geopolitical situation and inflation it is understandable.

Would you keep it or switch it to something else?
The five other I have is:

US growth
Global sustainability
DJSI sustainability global
Omx C25 (largest companies in Denmark)
US sustainability

So I was considering some growth fund that doesn't include US stocks.

Any input?

 

[dullard]

I have 6 index funds and one has been very lackluster the last 2.5 years. It's a EU small cap, so given the geopolitical situation and inflation it is understandable.

Would you keep it or switch it to something else?
The five other I have is:

US growth
Global sustainability
DJSI sustainability global
Omx C25 (largest companies in Denmark)
US sustainability

So I was considering some growth fund that doesn't include US stocks.

Any input?

I didn't look into those in detail. But my general rule of thumb is to pre-determine what percentage of each fund you need and then to rebalance once a year or so. Rebalancing is a way to force yourself to buy low and sell high while also maintaining your pre-determined goals. It does that all without thinking and without emotions. If you did rebalance, then you would likely BUY more of that EU small cap.

That said, do you have very much value stock in that mix? Value companies simply churn out money for you day in and day out. Growth stocks are great, but shouldn't be too much of a mixture of stocks because growth stocks do tend to be cyclical and fall hard when they fall. I just don't know the makeup of those sustainability funds to know if they are more growth focused or value focused.

 

[Charmonium]

Any input?

The US seems to have the strongest economy at the moment so a low fee broad market fund is probably a good bet, especially if you're in Denmark. As the world's reserve currency, the dollar tends to outperform other currencies. There's also the fact the US is the world's largest oil producer. That gives more weight to the currency.

But if you can't buy US mutual funds directly, like Vanguard, see if you can get Denmark's equivalent of ADRs (American Depository Receipts). In the US, these are stand-ins for the stock of foreign companies that trade in conjunction with those stocks.

It's hard to be more specific since I don't really know what your options are. But if possible, I would seriously consider a low-fee tech fund. Healthcare is also a good bet. But that's a very broad category covering everything from pharma to medical instruments.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Im thinking of buying Ethiopian small caps (I was honestly curious and this is what came up in Duck Duck Go):




Or maybe the Mexican Mag 7 (did not expect this either):

 

[AdamK47]

America small caps.


America Mag 7



Google gets it right. America small caps.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So I mostly use Duck Duck Go for basic searches and Google for street view (its still has the best maps) starting last year and may consider Proton Mail pretty soon.

Here is a long, but informative video from the founder of Proton Mail which may be an eye opener for some:

 

[biostud]

I didn't look into those in detail. But my general rule of thumb is to pre-determine what percentage of each fund you need and then to rebalance once a year or so. Rebalancing is a way to force yourself to buy low and sell high while also maintaining your pre-determined goals. It does that all without thinking and without emotions. If you did rebalance, then you would likely BUY more of that EU small cap.

That said, do you have very much value stock in that mix? Value companies simply churn out money for you day in and day out. Growth stocks are great, but shouldn't be too much of a mixture of stocks because growth stocks do tend to be cyclical and fall hard when they fall. I just don't know the makeup of those sustainability funds to know if they are more growth focused or value focused.

To me it doesn't make to much sense to rebalanced index funds as these funds are internally balanced and some of the underlying stocks are present in several of the index. Maybe I'll just sell it and reduce my funds to five instead of six, and use the cash to buy more of the rest.

All are for long time investment.

 

[dullard]

To me it doesn't make to much sense to rebalanced index funds as these funds are internally balanced and some of the underlying stocks are present in several of the index. Maybe I'll just sell it and reduce my funds to five instead of six, and use the cash to buy more of the rest.

If the same stocks are present in many of your funds, then your funds aren't as diverse as they could be. In that sense, yes there is less incentive to rebalance.

However, there is still a point to rebalancing funds. Your investments get out of whack otherwise. For example, I own some S&P500 tracking funds. They are pretty much dominated by the magnificent 7 tech stocks all propped up by AI hype. Yes, I'm glad to have some ownership of those stocks that are doing well. But, my portfolio is getting more and more concentrated into just 7 stocks based on hype. That isn't a good place to be. I could lose a lot if that hype bubble pops. So, the next time I rebalance, I'll be selling some of the S&P500 funds and buying small stock funds, value stock funds, and foreign stock funds. That will reduce my risk of that bubble popping and let me lock in their massive gains from the bubble forming.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

So, the big dump the other day meant nothing at all.

 

[dullard]

So, the big dump the other day meant nothing at all.

Just a big temper tantrum from those who wanted an earlier fed cut. Stock markets tend to have a bunch of big drops on their way up as they test new highs.

 

[IronWing]

Just a big temper tantrum from those who wanted an earlier fed cut. Stock markets tend to have a bunch of big drops on their way up as they test new highs.

I remember when corporations were more than debt engines and stock prices reflected performance at least as much as access to cheap money.

 

[AdamK47]

Wholesale prices moved higher in January. Corporations just won't stop with their price hikes.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Wholesale prices moved higher in January. Corporations just won't stop with their price hikes.

The only thing that will stop them is consumer resistance. So long as consumers keep paying, price increases will continue....thus... rate hikes may not be over.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also, I wanted to mention this crazy stock I was trading - HOLO. I bought it early last week when it ran up from 1.00 to 3.50, up already 200%. I put in $1800 at 3.50. I sold the stock the same day for about 25.50 after hours, resulting in proceeds of $13,500. I figured a 500% one day return was something I better take. From $1,800 to $13,500 in one day, not bad!

Fast forward to today.and see HOLO was up another 10% to 37, I bought 25 shares for $825 at 33 premarket today and sold them for $90, or $2,250 today.

This stock lost 99% of its value and did a big reverse split that had one unexpected benefit - the dilutive stock warrants that converted at 11.50 now converted at 115.00 because of the reverse split. Not only that, they *supposedly* had $33.00 in cash (might not be true, hard to trust Chinese numbers). So that is why I figured $3.50 a share was a good bet for a tiny trade. Too bad I sold too soon the first time, could have made 1,000% or more.

But you never really can trust these crazy unknown stocks, better take the money while you can.

 

[AdamK47]

The only thing that will stop them is consumer resistance. So long as consumers keep paying, price increases will continue....thus... rate hikes may not be over.

P&G was the most egregious with price hikes last year. People just won't let go of brands and these companies know it. They got to have their Tide laundry soap and Charim toilet paper. Even when they pay more to get less.

 

[biostud]

P&G was the most egregious with price hikes last year. People just won't let go of brands and these companies know it. They got to have their Tide laundry soap and Charim toilet paper. Even when they pay more to get less.

Everyone deserves a good wipe...

 

[biostud]

If the same stocks are present in many of your funds, then your funds aren't as diverse as they could be. In that sense, yes there is less incentive to rebalance.

However, there is still a point to rebalancing funds. Your investments get out of whack otherwise. For example, I own some S&P500 tracking funds. They are pretty much dominated by the magnificent 7 tech stocks all propped up by AI hype. Yes, I'm glad to have some ownership of those stocks that are doing well. But, my portfolio is getting more and more concentrated into just 7 stocks based on hype. That isn't a good place to be. I could lose a lot if that hype bubble pops. So, the next time I rebalance, I'll be selling some of the S&P500 funds and buying small stock funds, value stock funds, and foreign stock funds. That will reduce my risk of that bubble popping and let me lock in their massive gains from the bubble forming.

For fun I tried to look into top 10 shares in each fund and look for the big 7 and other that might be a too large part of my portfolio. This is what I found:

Microsoft 6,34
Apple 2,94
Nvidia 2,11
Alphabet 2,04
Amazon 1,38
Tesla 1,19
Meta 0,77
Novo 2,51

And rest is ~2% or lower so I think it is ok.

 

[AdamK47]

Walmart buying VIZIO.

VIZIO always seemed like "The People of Walmart" TV brand. Now that same demographic can enjoy an influx of Walmart advertisement plastered all around their viewing experience.

 

[dullard]

Walmart buying VIZIO.

VIZIO always seemed like "The People of Walmart" TV brand. Now that same demographic can enjoy an influx of Walmart advertisement plastered all around their viewing experience.

Walmart already has its own TV brand. But now they have software to go with it (assuming this deal goes through). So that they can track what you see on TV vs. what you buy in the store. That is, they'll have a much greater knowledge of what ads work. Walmart streaming shows coming next?

Doesn't affect me much since I wouldn't use VIZIO and strongly avoid shopping at Walmart unless I'm desperate.

Capital One buying Discover seems more interesting. Simply big banks getting bigger? Or will it actually let Discover compete vs the much bigger MasterCard, AmEx, and Visa?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Walmart buying VIZIO.

VIZIO always seemed like "The People of Walmart" TV brand. Now that same demographic can enjoy an influx of Walmart advertisement plastered all around their viewing experience.

I've been using VIZIO soundbars with wireless subs for years. Cheap, reliable and sound good. Im on my second one after wanting to upgrade my 5 year old one.