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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
Article I saw suggests the opposite, hence the rally. I am unconvinced.
What article did you read that suggests rate hikes from Powell's message today? Everything I read said no rate hikes. I'm just curious as to how any media could spin that 180° around.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
For a guy that claims to like making money, you seem to love supporting scenarios where you would perpetually lose money.
When the average family must come up with $400k to $1M+ to buy a home, cars are $40k each and most jobs only pay $50k or less unless you rack up six figure education debt and *hopefully* land a 6 figure job, things are not working anymore. Dont forget your outrageous car and health insurance premiums with large deductibles so they dont actually pay for things - you do.

When most homes now are merely profit centers for wealthy land owners and the working class must pay $3k to $5k rent on $100k combined income, you will never afford a $1M home. And by the time you do, it will cost $5M and be owned by BlackRock who will then demand $15,000 monthly rent.

Save your pennies children and dont buy avocado toast if you want to own this home one day!

....but not all hope is lost...

Your family can live in one of Grant Cardone's upscale luxury one bedroom sardine apartments for $2.5k a month. Your kids can sleep on the floor.

You remember Grant Cardone, right? The guy who said he would be embarrassed as a husband, father and even as a human being to only be making $400,000 a year. "How can you live on just $400k a year!!"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-guru-grant-cardone-220000192.html
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,281
2,093
126
I still dont understand the people who want rate cuts.

The economy is fine, the market is at all time highs and the disfunctional government is just passing temporary spending bills.

Whey do we need rate cuts? To juice the stock market some more or influence the next election? Because the economy doesn't need it.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
When the average family must come up with $400k to $1M+ to buy a home, cars are $40k each and most jobs only pay $50k or less unless you rack up six figure education debt and *hopefully* land a 6 figure job, things are not working anymore. Dont forget your outrageous car and health insurance premiums with large deductibles so they dont actually pay for things - you do.
Lets take a look at your $400k home example (same applies to a $1M home, but multiply by 2.5). Here are the numbers for a 30 year mortgage (not including insurance, taxes, or other fees since those vary so much by location).
  • 4% mortgage rate: $1910/month payment
  • 5% mortgage rate: $2147/month payment
  • 6% mortgage rate: $2398/month payment
  • 7% mortgage rate: $2661/month payment
So you are arguing for the latter one? You are arguing to pay $2661 instead of $1910. Think about it. Yes, there is a HOPE that home prices will go down with higher interest rates. But as you can see over the last 2 years the exact opposite happened. Home prices went up with higher interest rates.

Want cheaper homes? Build more, plain and simple. Supply and demand determines prices. There is an unquenched inelastic demand now, so prices can only go down with more supply. Interest rates have no effect on base housing or base car prices when demand is inelastic.

Same exact thing for cars. Higher interest rates make cars more expensive to buy unless you pay cash. Want cheaper cars? Build more of them.

Your solution of higher interest rates just doesn't work to lower prices in this type of economy. It can work in other economies in other decades. But not right now in the US.
 
Reactions: Brainonska511

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
Look at the period from 1950 to 2000. Interest rates went up ~7x (from ~2% to over 14% and back down to ~5%) and the housing price index was almost totally unchanged through both interest rate increases and decreases. Then look from 2000 to 2015. Housing prices skyrocketed and then fell with almost no change in interest rates. Why did housing prices skyrocket then? Because new housing builds went to to an all time historic low in 2009. No supply = skyrocketing home prices.

Interest rates just don't have the direct impact on housing prices that many people think.
 
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jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
What article did you read that suggests rate hikes from Powell's message today? Everything I read said no rate hikes. I'm just curious as to how any media could spin that 180° around.

Was talking about cuts, not hikes. Powell made it sound like there will be cuts this year.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
I still dont understand the people who want rate cuts.

The economy is fine, the market is at all time highs and the disfunctional government is just passing temporary spending bills.

Whey do we need rate cuts? To juice the stock market some more or influence the next election? Because the economy doesn't need it.

Juice the stock market, yeah. Without AI hype the market would continue to decline without the cuts.

Edit: Plus to help the Deficit's borrowing costs.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,304
7,165
136
When the average family must come up with $400k to $1M+ to buy a home, cars are $40k each and most jobs only pay $50k or less unless you rack up six figure education debt and *hopefully* land a 6 figure job, things are not working anymore. Dont forget your outrageous car and health insurance premiums with large deductibles so they dont actually pay for things - you do.

When most homes now are merely profit centers for wealthy land owners and the working class must pay $3k to $5k rent on $100k combined income, you will never afford a $1M home. And by the time you do, it will cost $5M and be owned by BlackRock who will then demand $15,000 monthly rent.

Save your pennies children and dont buy avocado toast if you want to own this home one day!

....but not all hope is lost...

Your family can live in one of Grant Cardone's upscale luxury one bedroom sardine apartments for $2.5k a month. Your kids can sleep on the floor.

You remember Grant Cardone, right? The guy who said he would be embarrassed as a husband, father and even as a human being to only be making $400,000 a year. "How can you live on just $400k a year!!"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-guru-grant-cardone-220000192.html
The key solution to the housing issue is simply changing the arbitrary (and yes, they are largely arbitrary) rules around building and allow more housing to be built instead of the de facto ban that leads to expensive, detached [luxury] single-family sprawl. The bonus side here is you'd really stick it to the investor class, which is relying on tight supply to keep prices high (those investors even tell you that in their public filings!). More density would also help with car insurance: people wouldn't need so many cars per family, saving money on premiums. I'm not going to even touch your health insurance comment - that's for P&N.

Also, if someone can't support a small family on $400k a year, they can (un)kindly go fuck themselves. $400k a year is more than enough to live pretty much anywhere in the US.


Edit:
Also LOL if you think a 1 bedroom "luxury" apartment at $2.5k/month is expensive. LOL. You'd never make it in any major metro area. I'd love to be paying only $2.5k/mo for a "luxury" 1 bedroom.
 

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,386
4,935
136

biostud

Lifer
Feb 27, 2003
18,386
4,935
136
Juice the stock market, yeah. Without AI hype the market would continue to decline without the cuts.

Edit: Plus to help the Deficit's borrowing costs.
Up and down it goes. Today is my portfolio is higher than ever.

It is just ripples on a upward trending curve.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
The key solution to the housing issue is simply changing the arbitrary (and yes, they are largely arbitrary) rules around building and allow more housing to be built instead of the de facto ban that leads to expensive, detached [luxury] single-family sprawl.
Bingo. Multifamily housing, like duplexes or small apartments are really hard to build in most places. Either zoning prohibits multi-family housing or something like lot sizes and minimum distances from lot edges prevents it (it can be really hard to build a 4-plex on the same lot size as a single family house). Or there are things like required parking spots when parking isn't needed. Cheap, moderately dense housing hasn't been built in scale for decades. Heck when were the last "starter homes" built in any quantity? 40 years ago? We only get expensive McMansions or mass apartments. Nothing in-between is realistically allowed any more.

Eliminating or reducing these barriers are the easiest first step to take to actually get housing and rent prices down. Look up the missing middle housing for more info.
 
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JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,765
911
126
ASML broke over $1000, makes sense with all the fabs that are planned in the next 5 years and the AI boom. Up 44% YTD and 70% over the last year. Wonder if they'll consider a split.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
Bingo. Multifamily housing, like duplexes or small apartments are really hard to build in most places.

Problem is, SFH is what's in demand unless you are talking about single people or maybe some seniors. Building mutifamily just means you're asking for The Poors. There's a lot to hate about living in multifamily.

Cheap, moderately dense housing hasn't been built in scale for decades. Heck when were the last "starter homes" built in any quantity? 40 years ago?

I wouldn't call it cheap but I randomly looked at the Atlanta area and there's a fair amount of NC SFH available in the 300k range. There's those rowhomeish townhomes too but they are in the sameish price range.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,304
7,165
136
Problem is, SFH is what's in demand unless you are talking about single people or maybe some seniors. Building mutifamily just means you're asking for The Poors. There's a lot to hate about living in multifamily.
It's only "in demand" because that's all that is generally available or legally allowed to be built in most jurisdictions. You have a skewed view of actual preference.

If anything, we can see by using pricing as a substitute for demand and preference that multifamily housing can actually be quite popular in the right locations.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,852
12,337
126
www.anyf.ca
I wouldn't want to live in a non detached home myself, but if someone has a big lot and want to convert it into a multi family home or build a second home or convert their garage to an apartment etc, then they should be allowed to do that. Same with parking a camper and living in it. Why are people allowed to squat in tents on people's land without their permission and owner can't do anything but they can't put a trailer with actual permission? Get rid of all the red tape.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,184
3,608
126
Problem is, SFH is what's in demand unless you are talking about single people or maybe some seniors. Building mutifamily just means you're asking for The Poors. There's a lot to hate about living in multifamily.

I wouldn't call it cheap but I randomly looked at the Atlanta area and there's a fair amount of NC SFH available in the 300k range. There's those rowhomeish townhomes too but they are in the sameish price range.
There is a lot to hate about multifamily. But, there is a big gap between single family homes and large apartment complexes. Some people want a little garden or a place for their dog to run. Townhomes, duplexes, and 4-plexes are great for those people. Some people don't want to live with a bunch of neighbors packed like sardines, but also don't want to shovel snow and mow lawns. Etc.

Yes, single family homes are often many people's dream. We just are not there because we haven't built very many inexpensive single family starter homes in decades. We can't just get everyone's dream. But we can get to "close enough" and we can get there reasonably quickly. A house that is a on the small side, a duplex that gives you peace and quiet, etc. That is achievable.

$300k range isn't what we need. We need $200k range (something that people with a median household income can afford). That is where moderately dense housing can come in.

Look at something like San Jose where 94% of land is for single family housing only! Then think of the commute times (to drive past all those light density houses) and housing prices there (since there is an utter lack of necessary housing for the number of people). https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...ss-america-question-single-family-zoning.html
 
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Reactions: Brainonska511

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,823
5,440
136
It's only "in demand" because that's all that is generally available or legally allowed to be built in most jurisdictions. You have a skewed view of actual preference.

I feel very safe in saying that all other things being equal, people would prefer SFH over a TH, and TH greatly over condo.

$300k range isn't what we need. We need $200k range

Don't think that's realistic for NC. Since I mentioned Atlanta, there's plenty of housing stock in the 200k range but only old stuff.

Housing for sure is something that could be ripe for innovation.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,304
7,165
136
feel very safe in saying that all other things being equal, people would prefer SFH over a TH, and TH greatly over condo.
I feel very safe in saying that the real world has tradeoffs, and everyone is going to have different personal preferences. Some people might favor walk ability, or proximity to nightlife, or vast yards, or reduced maintenance, and then we factor in price and commute times into this equation, and presto... Why not just let the market cater to the those different preferences instead of government fiat dictating a single construction type?
 
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