I'd call it for Kerry. Both of them fumbled through the first third, really pitiful. Then Kerry started coming on strong, and Bush started losing it. Bush really looked bad at that point; it will be worse when the media and Dems package the most damaging clips together. It will be great fodder for aspiring Michael Moores.
Bush finally calmed himself down by the last third of the debate. Kerry continued to do well -- most of the time -- but he missed good opportunities to really hammer some of Bush's distortions and evasions. All in all, it will help Kerry somewhat, but it wasn't a knock-out.