*********Official Florida Republican Primary Thread********

[techs]

Will January 29th be 9-11's Dec. 7th?

 

[Pabster]

Well, we can finally agree on something techs.

Here's to hoping 9/11 fades in to the sunset once and for all.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Pabster
Well, we can finally agree on something techs.

Here's to hoping 9/11 fades in to the sunset once and for all.

Yeah, it was insane to think a pro-choice candidate could win the Republican nomination.

 

[nageov3t]

looks like it's a dead heat between Romney and McCain on the R side...

I think if McCain wins Florida, it's a done deal, especially with his high numbers in CA, NY, and NJ (3 of the 4 top delegate Super Tuesday states)... his only competition in those states is Rudy, and his numbers are probably going to tank even further if (when) he loses Florida.

 

[Lemon law]

Given the polls, the Giuliani campaign is now banking all its hopes on those hundreds of thousands in Florida who voted early using write in ballots. But I do agree, if Rudy does not finish first or second in Florida, its difficult to see him staying in the race on the Republican side.

But unless either McCain or Romney sweeps super Tuesday, its still hard to see super Tuesday as being decisive on the Republican side. If Huckabee and Paul stay in and can lock up 25% of the vote between them, its hard to see either McCain or Romney locking up the nomination any time soon.

 

[Lemon law]

Sorry, accidental double post.

 

[RightIsWrong]

I think that Rudy is about to sing his farewell song. I don't think that he will break 17% in FL and will finish a distant third. When/if he does.....there goes the financial support needed to compete in the rest and with very little exposure, he is an afterthought.

As for Huck....Fox News had a couple of people on this AM talking about the Kennedy endorsement of Obama and then switched over to the R primaries and were pondering how long should he (Huck) stay in because they feel his run is DOA.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
I think that Rudy is about to sing his farewell song. I don't think that he will break 17% in FL and will finish a distant third. When/if he does.....there goes the financial support needed to compete in the rest and with very little exposure, he is an afterthought.

As for Huck....Fox News had a couple of people on this AM talking about the Kennedy endorsement of Obama and then switched over to the R primaries and were pondering how long should he (Huck) stay in because they feel his run is DOA.

Didn't McCain only beat Huck by 3 points in South Carolina? And McCain spent something like ten times as much as Huck?
If the media had reported the results for what they were, a spectacular showing by Huck, or if Huck had more money, Huck would be the odds on favorite now.

 

[chowderhead]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Given the polls, the Giuliani campaign is now banking all its hopes on those hundreds of thousands in Florida who voted early using write in ballots. But I do agree, if McCain does not finish first or second in Florida, its difficult to see him staying in the race on the Republican side.

But unless either McCain or Romney sweeps super Tuesday, its still hard to see super Tuesday as being decisive on the Republican side. If Huckabee and Paul stay in and can lock up 25% of the vote between them, its hard to see either McCain or Romney locking up the nomination any time soon.

I think Mayor 9/11 is finished. His early voters actually may prop him up a bit but that comes at the expense of McCain who is probably going after those same moderate Republican voters as Florida is a closed primary. McCain is getting a bit of a boost as popular Governor Crist endorsed him recently as did Sen. Martinez which can help with the Cuban-American vote.

The outlook for McCain is good if he wins Florida (57 delegates winner takes all). NY, NJ and CT can be likely wins. This is important because those three states are winner takes all. That's 180 delegates right there. McCain wins Arizona and Romney wins Massachusetts, Utah and probably most of the west. Huckabee probably wins the South with McCain doing much better there than Romney. McCain and Romney will fight for the midwest. McCain also has an advantage in California.

I even think if Romney wins Florida, McCain still can win though the margins would be closer.

 

[RightIsWrong]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
I think that Rudy is about to sing his farewell song. I don't think that he will break 17% in FL and will finish a distant third. When/if he does.....there goes the financial support needed to compete in the rest and with very little exposure, he is an afterthought.

As for Huck....Fox News had a couple of people on this AM talking about the Kennedy endorsement of Obama and then switched over to the R primaries and were pondering how long should he (Huck) stay in because they feel his run is DOA.

Didn't McCain only beat Huck by 3 points in South Carolina? And McCain spent something like ten times as much as Huck?
If the media had reported the results for what they were, a spectacular showing by Huck, or if Huck had more money, Huck would be the odds on favorite now.

Like I said.....it was Fox News!

I agree with you though. Huck doesn't have the wallet to battle it out over the next few weeks unless he comes through with a monstrous showing in FL.

The press are falling in love with McCain all over again and Romney has deeper personal pockets than anyone else that is campaigning save a last ditch independent run by Bloomberg.

 

[Fern]

I think about all FL is gonna accomplish is defining the Repub primary as a two-person race between McCain & Romney.

Fern

 

[pstylesss]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
I think that Rudy is about to sing his farewell song. I don't think that he will break 17% in FL and will finish a distant third. When/if he does.....there goes the financial support needed to compete in the rest and with very little exposure, he is an afterthought.

As for Huck....Fox News had a couple of people on this AM talking about the Kennedy endorsement of Obama and then switched over to the R primaries and were pondering how long should he (Huck) stay in because they feel his run is DOA.

Didn't McCain only beat Huck by 3 points in South Carolina? And McCain spent something like ten times as much as Huck?
If the media had reported the results for what they were, a spectacular showing by Huck, or if Huck had more money, Huck would be the odds on favorite now.

Yes. Huckabee is doing much better than people are giving him credit for. He has a lot more support than the media is letting on or that people want to admit. He has a very small budget and has made it stretch and work for him... that has to say something about him.

 

[BeauJangles]

Originally posted by: ZeroIQ

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
I think that Rudy is about to sing his farewell song. I don't think that he will break 17% in FL and will finish a distant third. When/if he does.....there goes the financial support needed to compete in the rest and with very little exposure, he is an afterthought.

As for Huck....Fox News had a couple of people on this AM talking about the Kennedy endorsement of Obama and then switched over to the R primaries and were pondering how long should he (Huck) stay in because they feel his run is DOA.

Didn't McCain only beat Huck by 3 points in South Carolina? And McCain spent something like ten times as much as Huck?
If the media had reported the results for what they were, a spectacular showing by Huck, or if Huck had more money, Huck would be the odds on favorite now.

Yes. Huckabee is doing much better than people are giving him credit for. He has a lot more support than the media is letting on or that people want to admit. He has a very small budget and has made it stretch and work for him... that has to say something about him.

He relies on the religious, who agree with his "take back America for Jesus" campaign. Otherwise, I think finding support will be difficult for him.

 

[Pabster]

Originally posted by: ZeroIQ
Yes. Huckabee is doing much better than people are giving him credit for. He has a lot more support than the media is letting on or that people want to admit. He has a very small budget and has made it stretch and work for him... that has to say something about him.

It says there are a lot of religious fanatics out there.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
I think that Rudy is about to sing his farewell song. I don't think that he will break 17% in FL and will finish a distant third. When/if he does.....there goes the financial support needed to compete in the rest and with very little exposure, he is an afterthought.

As for Huck....Fox News had a couple of people on this AM talking about the Kennedy endorsement of Obama and then switched over to the R primaries and were pondering how long should he (Huck) stay in because they feel his run is DOA.

Didn't McCain only beat Huck by 3 points in South Carolina? And McCain spent something like ten times as much as Huck?
If the media had reported the results for what they were, a spectacular showing by Huck, or if Huck had more money, Huck would be the odds on favorite now.

south carolina was a must-win for Huckabee.

if he can't win a southern state with a large evangelical demographic that george bush used to decimate mccain in '00, how can he expect to win anywhere else? he might snag a deep south state or two, but could it really hold up against McCain sweeping the NE and west?

 

[pstylesss]

Originally posted by: BlinderBomber

Originally posted by: ZeroIQ

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
I think that Rudy is about to sing his farewell song. I don't think that he will break 17% in FL and will finish a distant third. When/if he does.....there goes the financial support needed to compete in the rest and with very little exposure, he is an afterthought.

As for Huck....Fox News had a couple of people on this AM talking about the Kennedy endorsement of Obama and then switched over to the R primaries and were pondering how long should he (Huck) stay in because they feel his run is DOA.

Didn't McCain only beat Huck by 3 points in South Carolina? And McCain spent something like ten times as much as Huck?
If the media had reported the results for what they were, a spectacular showing by Huck, or if Huck had more money, Huck would be the odds on favorite now.

Yes. Huckabee is doing much better than people are giving him credit for. He has a lot more support than the media is letting on or that people want to admit. He has a very small budget and has made it stretch and work for him... that has to say something about him.

He relies on the religious, who agree with his "take back America for Jesus" campaign. Otherwise, I think finding support will be difficult for him.

Talking out of your ass? His campaign doesn't even come close to that.

Originally posted by: Pabster

Originally posted by: ZeroIQ
Yes. Huckabee is doing much better than people are giving him credit for. He has a lot more support than the media is letting on or that people want to admit. He has a very small budget and has made it stretch and work for him... that has to say something about him.

It says there are a lot of religious fanatics out there.

God damn Pabster, I've lost a lot of respect for you over the last couple weeks. Have you listened to any of the debates at all, any of his speeches? He isn't just getting the evangelical vote, which isn't a bad thing at all... all republicans rely on the Christian vote and the "fanatics" anyway, so I'm not exactly seeing the problem. He isn't a whacked out Christian fanatic and I know fanatics when I see them.

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: RightIsWrong
I think that Rudy is about to sing his farewell song. I don't think that he will break 17% in FL and will finish a distant third. When/if he does.....there goes the financial support needed to compete in the rest and with very little exposure, he is an afterthought.

As for Huck....Fox News had a couple of people on this AM talking about the Kennedy endorsement of Obama and then switched over to the R primaries and were pondering how long should he (Huck) stay in because they feel his run is DOA.

Didn't McCain only beat Huck by 3 points in South Carolina? And McCain spent something like ten times as much as Huck?
If the media had reported the results for what they were, a spectacular showing by Huck, or if Huck had more money, Huck would be the odds on favorite now.

south carolina was a must-win for Huckabee.

if he can't win a southern state with a large evangelical demographic that george bush used to decimate mccain in '00, how can he expect to win anywhere else? he might snag a deep south state or two, but could it really hold up against McCain sweeping the NE and west?

I don't think Huckabee could pull off a nomination, but I can hope. I would be just as happy with a McCain nomination.

 

[Lemon law]

Lets face the facts, the religious right is a must have for the GOP if they want to win the Presidency. Early on, every candidate save Ron Paul and Giuliani were pandering to be the candidate of the religious right. And Huckabee walked away with RR support by birthright.

Now that the GOP nomination appears down to McCain and Romney, its hard to see the religious right get excited about either. Romney practically reinvented himself to pander to the religious right, but its my gut feeling that the RR will never trust a Morman. And I don't see the RR warming to McCain either.

But unless the GOP can bring the religious right into the general election enthusiastic and in strong support, its hard to see the GOP winning in November. If Huckabee lacks the money to stay in the race, the Huckabee endorsement will be like gold. And right now, its a McCain Huckabee alliance so advantage McCain.

Its also hard to see the leadership of the religious right stay on the sidelines in 08. They are very close to getting control of the Supreme Court and if the dems win, there goes that hope.

 

[nageov3t]

so far it's looking like possibly Yet Another Florida Election Clusterfuck.

Hill seems to have it locked up, but McCain/Douchebag seem to be neck and neck, with voting machine problems already reported in one county.

 

[Farang]

Looks like Romney

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Farang
Looks like Romney

McCain's up by about halfapaul at the moment, but only with 8% reporting.

 

[Farang]

Nevermind I'm an idiot.. I'm actually surprised at Obama's showing considering the huge PR advantage Clinton got by pumping up the primary recently. Call me a spinster, I probably deserve it... but I did expect him to get less than he is here.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: loki8481
so far it's looking like possibly Yet Another Florida Election Clusterfuck.

Hill seems to have it locked up, but McCain/Douchebag seem to be neck and neck, with voting machine problems already reported in one county.

Obama and Edwards didnt step foot in Florida. Clinton did.

Of course shes going to win handily. The Clintons might want Michigan and Florida Delegates seated, but it isnt going to happen.

 

[nageov3t]

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
so far it's looking like possibly Yet Another Florida Election Clusterfuck.

Hill seems to have it locked up, but McCain/Douchebag seem to be neck and neck, with voting machine problems already reported in one county.

Obama didnt step foot in Florida. Clinton did.

Of course shes going to win handily. The Clintons might want Michigan and Florida Delegates seated, but it isnt going to happen.

for sure.

but I wonder if the coverage might somehow blunt Obama's SC win, like her NH win did for his Iowa.

edit: I edited out Edwards... because he's not even worth the fraction of a second it takes to read his name.

 

[Wreckem]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Given the polls, the Giuliani campaign is now banking all its hopes on those hundreds of thousands in Florida who voted early using write in ballots. But I do agree, if Rudy does not finish first or second in Florida, its difficult to see him staying in the race on the Republican side.

But unless either McCain or Romney sweeps super Tuesday, its still hard to see super Tuesday as being decisive on the Republican side. If Huckabee and Paul stay in and can lock up 25% of the vote between them, its hard to see either McCain or Romney locking up the nomination any time soon.

Half of the states on Super Tuesday are winner take all. But you're right, its going to be a wash, McCain will probably have a slight edge over Romney(if he goes on to win tonight which it looks like he will). Im still banking on a brokered convention. There are states McCain will win, and there are states Romney will win, and nothing is going to change that.

 

[Farang]

Originally posted by: loki8481

Originally posted by: Wreckem

Originally posted by: loki8481
so far it's looking like possibly Yet Another Florida Election Clusterfuck.

Hill seems to have it locked up, but McCain/Douchebag seem to be neck and neck, with voting machine problems already reported in one county.

Obama didnt step foot in Florida. Clinton did.

Of course shes going to win handily. The Clintons might want Michigan and Florida Delegates seated, but it isnt going to happen.

for sure.

but I wonder if the coverage might somehow blunt Obama's SC win, like her NH win did for his Iowa.

edit: I edited out Edwards... because he's not even worth the fraction of a second it takes to read his name.

Ask your average voter who won Wyoming. Admittedly this is a bit different.. really it all depends on how much coverage this victory speech of hers is going to get.