My ex is a forecaster and sent me this:
RECON reports moments ago indicate pressure deepened to 930 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 131 knots (151 miles per hour) in the northeast quadrant!
These reports are indicative of a drop in pressure of a rate of one millibar per hour since late yesterday after rapid deepening during the day and early evening. This makes Dennis a solid Category FOUR hurricane and is currently stronger than Ivan when he made landfall very close to the same area.
The area of intense winds of hurricane force of 74 miles per hour and beyond is relatively small extending perhaps forty nautical miles from the center however the tropical storm force winds of 39 mph to 73 mph extend well outwards to perhaps 235 nautical miles. This is a very large but tightly wound storm. The buoy 115 miles southeast of Pensacola is reporting a sustained wind of 52 miles per hour with gusts to 58 miles per hour and 32 foot seas - combined wave height and swells.
The thermal gradient from the center of the eye to the outer limit of the eyewall is now 12 degrees centigrade which is about as high as seen in these storms. The storm is just about to move over water that is a bit cooler than what it?s been over in the past twelve hours. Additionally, in the last two hours the stepped infrared and water vapour imagery has revealed a slightly less symmetrical shape of the CDO and primary convective outflow shield. I do expect the storm's intensification rate will slow and level off during the next few hour and stay at a more steady state. The upper TROF and closed cold core low over the northwestern Gulf has been drifting very slightly toward the southeast. This can be observed in the water vapour imagery with drier air following in behind the storm more from the southwest than the west however the outflow from the storm is simultaneously becoming more pronounced now toward the northwest. There is a bit of a fujiwara effect at play here and I fully expect the storm to turn more towards the northwest within the next four hour and I expect landfall will still be very near Mobile by around 1700 today. This is in total agreement with the landfall projections by virtually every model except UKMET which shows a landfall just east of Pensacola. The Mobile landfall is also exactly where the latest 06Z GFS run places it as well.
A storm surge to 15 FEET can be expected near and just east of the landfall point (eye). Maximum wave heights of around 40 feet. Over open ocean waters maximum wave heights will reach well over 60 feet close to the northeast side of the eyewall. If the storm comes ashore along the western edge of Mobile Bay, storm surge heights of up to 20 feet are possible in some areas of the bay!
This is the strongest hurricane to affect the region since Camille in 1969.