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Flash Polls vs. Election Results.
Spin is underway, and a variety of polls are suggesting a Kerry victory in the debate last night.
Truth be told, Kerry exceeded expectations, but when it came to substance, he came up short.
The flash polls still suggest Kerry won the debate, which Democrats think makes Kerry suddenly unstoppable. Historically speaking, that's hardly the case. Otherwise, we would have seen President Mondale, President Dukakis, President Perot, and President Gore.
Since 1984, no Republican has won in the flash polls from the first debate, but has won 3 out of 5 of those elections.
Ross Perot beat both Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush in the flash poll with 47%. Michael Dukakis beat George H.W Bush 38-29... don't forget, this is the same debate Dukakis gave an emotionless response when asked if his wife were raped and murdered.
In 1984, Reagan was said to have lost the first debate 54-35.
Reagan (the Republican incumbant) was reelected after winning 49 states.
The Kerry camp thinks they should be celebrating right now. But the flash poll is not the election. We can debate who won the debate until we're blue in the face, but no matter how you slice it, in the end substance still is more important than style, and Bush had the monopoly on substance.