*** Official MLB Postseason thread ***

[BeauJangles]

Originally posted by: Fear No Evil
I'd like to see more teams in the MLB playoffs. Of course you'd probably have to shorten the season to do that. But who the hell needs to play 160 regular season games. Opening up the playoffs will give good teams a chance to win it at least. Its stupid when teams with close to 90 wins can't make the playoffs because people like NYY just buy a team.

This about it this way, if Phily was in the AL East they would have finished in third place and not even been a wildcard. Thats not right.

If the Cardinals played in any other division in the NFL last year, they wouldn't have been in the playoffs either. This sort of whack shit happens all the time in all 3 major sports, but I'll agree that MLB is fucked up. Teams like the '07 Jays should have been in the playoffs, but they weren't because they were in a division with two of the biggest market teams in baseball. It's a crap system and it screws teams that can't spend.

While everyone is harping over a potential salary cap, the league really needs an overhaul of its draft too. Very few superstar players are free agent acquisitions. Most are traded for or drafted (with a high percentage drafted at many positions). That's why MLB needs some sort of spending balance AND needs a dramatic overhaul of the draft. It's bullshit that high-talent players fall to teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, and other high payroll teams simply because they have "signability" issues.

 

[Sinsear]

Dear Yankee Haters:


SUCK IT!!!!!

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: BeauJangles
I'd just like to preface this post by saying that I'm not defending the current MLB system. I've already stated my preference for better revenue sharing. MLB also needs to fix or replace the draft. I think, however, that MLB gets railed on a little unfairly for competitiveness (this is just a feeling, like I said, I haven't really done the numbers).

The top teams are always there, that's a given. I think that's relatively true in other sports too. The NFL has a small number of teams that are consistent in their playoff appearances -- Patriots, Colts, Ravens, Eagles, Steelers come to mind very fast.

There are a host of MLB teams that haven't sniffed the playoffs in years -- Nats / Expos, Reds, KC, Baltimore and many of those teams will continue to struggle because they play in good divisions, but we can say the same of the NFL. There are teams with substantial droughts like Texans, Saints, Browns, Bills. Granted those are shorter than their MLB counterparts, so maybe there is a point to be made there.

Looking at the list of longest championship droughts for both leagues is interesting:
NFL droughts
MLB droughts

Here's what strikes me about that list. First, there are a lot of teams in the NFL that haven't won in a very long time. Second, a lot of those teams have actually been fairly competitive over the last fifteen years. Teams like Arizona, Buffalo, the Eagles, Titans, Chargers have actually been close or made it and lost. That definitely isn't true for the cellar dwellers in MLB.

There's no doubt that MLB needs reforms, however I also wonder how much the smaller playoffs make a difference to chances for smaller money teams.

Sorry for this post becoming so disjointed, I suddenly got very busy. I'm just throwing data out there, curious to here what you have to say.

From Wiki:

Measuring the success of the luxury tax in bringing the benefits of parity has brought mixed results. As a positive, only twice in the past 30 years has a team won the World Series with a $100 million plus payroll: the 2007 Red Sox and 2001 Yankees according to Joe Posnanski's December 2008 SI.com blog, which was addressed by Peter Gammons in a January 2009 espn.com article. In those 30 years, 20 different teams have won World Series titles, compared to 14 different teams winning the NFL Super Bowl, 13 winning the NHL Stanley Cup and nine winning the NBA championship. While a top tier payroll increases the likeliness of making the playoffs, it does not result in teams consistently winning championships.

Others pundits, such as Michael Lewis, author of the bestseller Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game, have argued that using World Series championships as an example of parity may be misleading, and playoff appearances may be a better indicator of relative team strength. The playoff system used in baseball comprises a small number of games compared to success over a long season, and has been described as a "crapshoot" by Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane.

Teams with consistently high payrolls including the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox have secured disproportionately high numbers of playoff berths while teams with low payrolls such as the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays have only made the playoffs once combined over the past decade.

I pretty much agree with this assessment, in fact I came to this conclusion in 2004.

Keep in mind the salary cap in the NFL has only been there for 15 years. The teams who haven't won aren't going to just become great, although the Eagles have definitely climbed to the top. I think any team winning a championship is really just crapshoot like Beane said. The fact that it's incredibly hard to repeat in baseball is proof enough. There is a definite $ to playoff probability, however.

 

[Inspector Jihad]

i can't wait till sunday when the phillies win game 4 and the eagles beat the giants.

 

[Caesar]

Originally posted by: Inspector Jihad
i can't wait till sunday when the phillies win game 4 and the eagles beat the giants.

Amen!

 

[jalaram]

Pedro to pitch Game 2 instead of Hamels.

Cliff Lee to pitch Game 1 was a no-brainer, but this is interesting. Will Pedro pitch like he did against the Dodgers?

 

[BeauJangles]

Originally posted by: jalaram
Pedro to pitch Game 2 instead of Hamels.

Cliff Lee to pitch Game 1 was a no-brainer, but this is interesting. Will Pedro pitch like he did against the Dodgers?

This is a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible move. Pedro is not the same caliber pitcher as Hamels and his supposed decline is nothing but a bit of bad luck. His ERA jumped an entire run over last year, but that's largely due to the fact that last year he was getting lucky on batted balls and this year he has been unlucky. The true Cole Hamels is probably somewhere between this year and last.

In the playoffs he has had a few struggles, but anything can happen over a small sample size. The Phillies need to realize (and realize fast!) that Hamels is their 2nd best pitcher. Starting him in Game 2 guarantees that he will pitch again in the series. This is a very, very bad move and a prime example of a manager trying to over think things.

 

[BeauJangles]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
.. snippity..

Thanks for the quote, it is interesting to think about. Like I've said all along, I don't believe that MLB should stand pat on this issue. You're almost definitely right that over the long haul, NFL teams should rise and fall more consistently than MLB teams. I'm just not always a fan of those who continually insist on fallacies like "every team in the NFL has a chance to win." That simply isn't true and never will be true. Bad teams are bad. Good teams are good. Granted, sometimes crazy shit happens (especially because of the unpredictability of the NFL due to injuries and the small number of games), but it is a complete lie that every team is competitive.

The goal of MLB (and the NFL) should be to make teams competitive over the long-haul. The salary cap has certainly helped in the NFL and MLB should adopt something similar to allow teams like the Royals and the Reds to compete.

 

[The Boston Dangler]

yankees in 6, maybe 5

 

[jalaram]

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
.. snippity..

Thanks for the quote, it is interesting to think about. Like I've said all along, I don't believe that MLB should stand pat on this issue. You're almost definitely right that over the long haul, NFL teams should rise and fall more consistently than MLB teams. I'm just not always a fan of those who continually insist on fallacies like "every team in the NFL has a chance to win." That simply isn't true and never will be true. Bad teams are bad. Good teams are good. Granted, sometimes crazy shit happens (especially because of the unpredictability of the NFL due to injuries and the small number of games), but it is a complete lie that every team is competitive.

The goal of MLB (and the NFL) should be to make teams competitive over the long-haul. The salary cap has certainly helped in the NFL and MLB should adopt something similar to allow teams like the Royals and the Reds to compete.

WSJ Story about loopholes in the NFL salary cap

Obviously, it's not as bad as having no cap, but well run teams will always use/abuse the rules to get a step ahead.

 

[The Boston Dangler]

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
.. snippity..

Thanks for the quote, it is interesting to think about. Like I've said all along, I don't believe that MLB should stand pat on this issue. You're almost definitely right that over the long haul, NFL teams should rise and fall more consistently than MLB teams. I'm just not always a fan of those who continually insist on fallacies like "every team in the NFL has a chance to win." That simply isn't true and never will be true. Bad teams are bad. Good teams are good. Granted, sometimes crazy shit happens (especially because of the unpredictability of the NFL due to injuries and the small number of games), but it is a complete lie that every team is competitive.

The goal of MLB (and the NFL) should be to make teams competitive over the long-haul. The salary cap has certainly helped in the NFL and MLB should adopt something similar to allow teams like the Royals and the Reds to compete.

consider the teams that don't want to win. many teams are constantly in last place because the owners spend as little as possible while pocketing money from revenue sharing. also, players' slaries are just a part of a team's expense. until recently, the arizona cardinals would issue each player the minimum 1 pair of shoes, and didn't have an army of mathematicians, video editors, and others that any winning team employs.

 

[BrownShoes]

Pedro

 

[anxi80]

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: jalaram
Pedro to pitch Game 2 instead of Hamels.

Cliff Lee to pitch Game 1 was a no-brainer, but this is interesting. Will Pedro pitch like he did against the Dodgers?

This is a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible move. Pedro is not the same caliber pitcher as Hamels and his supposed decline is nothing but a bit of bad luck. His ERA jumped an entire run over last year, but that's largely due to the fact that last year he was getting lucky on batted balls and this year he has been unlucky. The true Cole Hamels is probably somewhere between this year and last.

In the playoffs he has had a few struggles, but anything can happen over a small sample size. The Phillies need to realize (and realize fast!) that Hamels is their 2nd best pitcher. Starting him in Game 2 guarantees that he will pitch again in the series. This is a very, very bad move and a prime example of a manager trying to over think things.

i agree. also hamels has already proved himself to be a big game pitcher and wouldnt be rattled by the environment of yankee stadium. pedro's been away for awhile, let him pitch in more comfortable fan-friendly confines of cititzens bank. a few runs get pushed across and out come the "who's your daddy" chants on pedro again.

 

[BlahBlahYouToo]

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: jalaram
Pedro to pitch Game 2 instead of Hamels.

Cliff Lee to pitch Game 1 was a no-brainer, but this is interesting. Will Pedro pitch like he did against the Dodgers?

This is a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible move. Pedro is not the same caliber pitcher as Hamels and his supposed decline is nothing but a bit of bad luck. His ERA jumped an entire run over last year, but that's largely due to the fact that last year he was getting lucky on batted balls and this year he has been unlucky. The true Cole Hamels is probably somewhere between this year and last.

In the playoffs he has had a few struggles, but anything can happen over a small sample size. The Phillies need to realize (and realize fast!) that Hamels is their 2nd best pitcher. Starting him in Game 2 guarantees that he will pitch again in the series. This is a very, very bad move and a prime example of a manager trying to over think things.

pedro didn't have it last season with the mets and he will get pounded in HR friendly yankee stadium.

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: Fear No Evil
The World Series.. brought to you by Pfizer. :roll: What can enough money and enough steroids buy you?

Again, NO interest in watching this as a casual baseball fan.

Thanks for bringing that up twice... do you think anyone here actually cares if YOU have any interest in this series? :laugh:

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: chalmers
And that's why I'm not interested in this series at all. Wow congrats Yankees, you couldn't make the playoffs last year so you spend millions and add a few more sellouts. That's not interesting at all. That type of practice totally ruins sports for me. It's not about competition and fun, it's about buying all the players. So if they lose this World Series are they going to bring in Pujols and Joe Mauer next year?

Pathetic.

Rail against the system, not the team that is playing by the rules. Are you telling me that the Yankees shouldn't spend more money to try and win, so long as their owners deem it a worthy expense?

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
If you look up some of my older posts from around 2003/2004 I showed that payroll pretty much ensures you'll make the playoffs*. From there, it's a flip of the coin.








*Disclaimer: Doesn't apply to the NY Mets. You will never beat the Phillies again, even if you surpass the Yankees in payroll. You may as well just start wearing Phillies gear.

Wow, you're so smart - I can't believe you figured that out all the way back in 2003! Amazing!

 

[jalaram]

MSN/WhatIfSports simulation prediction

According to them:

The computer likes the New York Yankees to defeat the Philadelphia Phillies in six games.

One wrong assumption was Hamels in Game 2.

I do have trouble believing 8-4 for Game 1 with CC and Cliff Lee. Maybe I'm just secretly wishing for a pitcher's duel.

 

[SoulAssassin]

Just got a ticket for game 5!

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: jalaram
Pedro to pitch Game 2 instead of Hamels.

Cliff Lee to pitch Game 1 was a no-brainer, but this is interesting. Will Pedro pitch like he did against the Dodgers?

This is a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible move. Pedro is not the same caliber pitcher as Hamels and his supposed decline is nothing but a bit of bad luck. His ERA jumped an entire run over last year, but that's largely due to the fact that last year he was getting lucky on batted balls and this year he has been unlucky. The true Cole Hamels is probably somewhere between this year and last.

In the playoffs he has had a few struggles, but anything can happen over a small sample size. The Phillies need to realize (and realize fast!) that Hamels is their 2nd best pitcher. Starting him in Game 2 guarantees that he will pitch again in the series. This is a very, very bad move and a prime example of a manager trying to over think things.

I disagree.

1) Hamels is much much better this year at the Home than away, look at his splits. 3.75 at home vs 4.99 on the road. Also, Hamels in 9.2 innings these playoffs = 6.52 ERA. Pedro in 7 innings on the road = 0.00.
2) Pedro has nerves of steel, has pitched in games bigger than this on the road in the postseason, has his velocity (92mph) and bite back on his pitches. The shutdown game at LA was a prime example. He's well rested since he only pitched 1/5 of a season. He's familiar with pitching at NY, Cole isn't.

He's the obvious choice IMO.

 

[RyanPaulShaffer]

Phillies in 5!

The Phillies are the only reason I am even remotely interested in baseball. Without them in the Series, who cares? Oh boy look, the Yankees spent more than half of the league combined (again) to buy other teams' roided up guys. /yawn

When your most hallowed record is held by a notorious cheater, you know your sport is in trouble.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: jman19

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
If you look up some of my older posts from around 2003/2004 I showed that payroll pretty much ensures you'll make the playoffs*. From there, it's a flip of the coin.








*Disclaimer: Doesn't apply to the NY Mets. You will never beat the Phillies again, even if you surpass the Yankees in payroll. You may as well just start wearing Phillies gear.

Wow, you're so smart - I can't believe you figured that out all the way back in 2003! Amazing!

Considering that Billy Beane proposed the same exact theory in the same year I did means that you can suck on deeeeez nuts.

 

[jman19]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: jman19

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
If you look up some of my older posts from around 2003/2004 I showed that payroll pretty much ensures you'll make the playoffs*. From there, it's a flip of the coin.








*Disclaimer: Doesn't apply to the NY Mets. You will never beat the Phillies again, even if you surpass the Yankees in payroll. You may as well just start wearing Phillies gear.

Wow, you're so smart - I can't believe you figured that out all the way back in 2003! Amazing!

Considering that Billy Beane proposed the same exact theory in the same year I did means that you can suck on deeeeez nuts.

You really think that Billy Beane (and no one before him) only realized in 2003 that being able to afford more talent gives you a competitive advantage? :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

My lord you are dumb.

 

[BeauJangles]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: BeauJangles

Originally posted by: jalaram
Pedro to pitch Game 2 instead of Hamels.

Cliff Lee to pitch Game 1 was a no-brainer, but this is interesting. Will Pedro pitch like he did against the Dodgers?

This is a terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible, terrible move. Pedro is not the same caliber pitcher as Hamels and his supposed decline is nothing but a bit of bad luck. His ERA jumped an entire run over last year, but that's largely due to the fact that last year he was getting lucky on batted balls and this year he has been unlucky. The true Cole Hamels is probably somewhere between this year and last.

In the playoffs he has had a few struggles, but anything can happen over a small sample size. The Phillies need to realize (and realize fast!) that Hamels is their 2nd best pitcher. Starting him in Game 2 guarantees that he will pitch again in the series. This is a very, very bad move and a prime example of a manager trying to over think things.

I disagree.

1) Hamels is much much better this year at the Home than away, look at his splits. 3.75 at home vs 4.99 on the road. Also, Hamels in 9.2 innings these playoffs = 6.52 ERA. Pedro in 7 innings on the road = 0.00.
2) Pedro has nerves of steel, has pitched in games bigger than this on the road in the postseason, has his velocity (92mph) and bite back on his pitches. The shutdown game at LA was a prime example. He's well rested since he only pitched 1/5 of a season. He's familiar with pitching at NY, Cole isn't.

He's the obvious choice IMO.

Pedro has given up a huge number of home runs. His HR/FB ratio straight up sucks. With the short porch @ Yankee Stadium, his outing will be short and he'll be knocked out to a chorus of "who's your daddy?" chants.

This is a classic case of a manager riding the hot hand, ignoring a mountain of evidence that Hamels is the better pitcher, and making a catastrophic mistake that could cost his team the World Series. Even looking at Hamels' home/away splits, at WORST he is a lefty Pedro Martinez (2009 edition) and, at best, is a dominant pitcher.

Charlie Manuel's press conference after Game 2 will go something like, "it was a gut feeling to go with Pedro over Hamels." When you need your gut to help your brain make decisions, you probably shouldn't be managing a major-league team

 

[drum]

And here I thought the Indians had no shot to make it to the World Series this year. :|