What? I think you're drinking a little too much koolaid if you think UNC was one of the toughest teams left. I expect a good game between UConn and Kentucky unlike the first time this season. Just in case you forgot -
http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=303280096
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCIJ06uC-jQ
Nice highlight reel, love the game winner vs Pitt where he broke McGhee's ankles with the step-back.
I doubt UConn will blow out UK like that this time, but I would never bet against Kemba, Lamb and Oriaki right now. Brandon Knight and Harrelson are good, but Lamb and Kemba can literally score at will if they want and have proved it.
VCU, just amazing. Apparently one of the Morris twins felt the need to talk a little smack before the game. Not very smart.
VCU guard Joey Rodriguez counted one of Kansas' vaunted Morris twins — Marcus or Markieff — as one of those many doubters. During a pregame captains meeting with officials, Rodriguez said one of the brothers offered him some parting words: "The run ends here."
"We'll see," Rodriguez shot back.
...
"Probably the best game they played ever," Markieff said. "Probably the best game ever as a school tonight. We let them. We let them beat us."
The funny thing is that Morris is wrong: VCU's best players didn't even have that great of a day, Rodriguez and Burgess only had 9 points and average double digits per game. In VCU's most dominant game that mattered against George Mason during the CAA tourney, they shot 48% FG (24-50) vs 39.6% yesterday, and got to the line 7 more times than yesterday.
http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=310652244
Rodriguez had 13, Burgess 16, and Skeen 21 in that game. Even stranger is that Mason blew them out by 20 earlier in the year. The next game, however, VCU lost to ODU. The key? ODU outrebounded them 46-21 and kept them off the FT line (17 times vs 20+ when they win). Outrebound VCU and don't foul if you want to beat them. Kansas outrebounded them by 10, but shot 15-28 from the FT line and that's the game right there. FSU outrebounded them by 17 but shot 26-71 (36%) FG%. Purdue only outrebounded them by 5, but turned it over 3 more times and were blown out. G-Town outrebounded them by 10 but put them on the line a whopping 39 times. USC didn't outrebound them and had more turnovers, nuff said.
Looking at Butler's key wins: against ODU, they took away ODU's strength of rebounding and won (Butler +1 on the glass). Had ODU gotten its normal +11 rebounds per game, Butler would have lost... but it didn't happen. Against Pitt, they were outrebounded by 10 but were +4 on turnovers in a very tight game because they allowed Pitt to shoot an ungodly 57% FG and 55% 3pt. Wisc, they outrebounded them by 7. Against Florida, they outrebounded them by +3. In Butler's other losses, they either lose if they're outrebounded and/or minus on turnovers.
All in all, I have to give the edge to Butler since I'm pretty sure they will outrebound VCU which is present in all of VCU's losses. They will need every one of those extra rebounds to score in the paint because Butler is not a great 3pt shooting team. If it comes down to 3pt shooting, the edge has to go to VCU which has always been how they neutralize getting outrebounded. Nonetheless, it will be a fascinating matchup and probably come down to the wire since both teams have different strengths that neutralize the other.
Butler will have to build a lead early and keep VCU out of striking range with their deadly 3pt shot, that's how Mason and ODU beat them, by staying ahead the entire game and keeping their cushion. If VCU ties it or gets close, then you're in trouble. Once VCU gets the lead for a prolonged amount of time, they seem to get even more confident and the only team to come back on them all year was FSU. Since Butler doesn't have as good a defense, they better make sure they don't let VCU ever get ahead or it's an uphill battle vs that 3point shooting.