Official NFL 2012 Week 5 thread!

[Arkaign]

I wouldn't be surprised if Tony Romo showed up at some random game and threw some interceptions, even if the Cowboys have a bye week

 

[OILFIELDTRASH]

I wouldn't be surprised if Tony Romo showed up at some random game and threw some interceptions, even if the Cowboys have a bye week

I still haven't found a new NFL team yet. I'm no longer a cowboys fan and haven't been for years. I just enjoy watching the NFL in general and the cowboys are just one of 32 teams.

 

[AstroManLuca]

I still haven't found a new NFL team yet. I'm no longer a cowboys fan and haven't been for years. I just enjoy watching the NFL in general and the cowboys are just one of 32 teams.

Texans, if you're from Texas. They're good, very balanced, good players on both sides of the ball. They have one of the best RBs in the league, a reliable and consistent QB (unlike Romo who will never even go to a Super Bowl, much less win one), and a very tough defense.

 

[AMDZen]

I'm calling AFC West madness

Broncos beat Patriots in Foxborrow
Chiefs beat Ravons at Arrowhead
Saints finally win a game Sunday night against the Chargers

 

[MetalMat]

I still haven't found a new NFL team yet. I'm no longer a cowboys fan and haven't been for years. I just enjoy watching the NFL in general and the cowboys are just one of 32 teams.

I think the Texans is the obvious choice for you. If you want to stick with the NFC then jump on my teams 0-4 wagon this season

 

[MetalMat]

I'm calling AFC West madness

Broncos beat Patriots in Foxborrow
Chiefs beat Ravons at Arrowhead
Saints finally win a game Sunday night against the Chargers

I just can't see the Broncos beating the Patriots after the nightmare playoff game last season. I think it will obviously be closer but I think the Patriots win though I would LOVE to see the Broncos wipe the floor with them.

 

[MetalMat]

Anyone have any faith in Cleveland beating the Giants on the Road to finally get a win? Giants are favored by around 9 points

 

[diesbudt]

And then they proceeded to beat the Saints in the playoffs which lead me to a night of heavy Tequila consumption with friends to drown our sorrows away

Well Lynch did do that amazing 50+ yard run that broke 10+ tackles. That was very impressive.

My friend likes to joke "The bounty on his head wasn't large enough, so they let him go" .

lol

 

[diesbudt]

Anyone have any faith in Cleveland beating the Giants on the Road to finally get a win? Giants are favored by around 9 points

No, I don't see cleveland wining this week. I see them starting out 0-7.

 

[IAteYourMother]

Anyone have any faith in Cleveland beating the Giants on the Road to finally get a win? Giants are favored by around 9 points

I kind of like them against the spread if they're getting 9 points...

 

[IndyColtsFan]

Well, well, well, look who leads the league in "Total QBR":

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

Who is that WAY down the list at #11?

 

[KeithTalent]

Well, well, well, look who leads the league in "Total QBR":

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

Who is that WAY down the list at #11?

Woot!

10 Christian Ponder, MIN

KT

 

[AstroManLuca]

Well, well, well, look who leads the league in "Total QBR":

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

Who is that WAY down the list at #11?

It's interesting to compare Total QBR to Total EPA (expected points added). If you look at total EPA, RGIII is tied for fifth. But his QBR puts him in 11th.

In other words, he puts up points, but a lot of them are in "garbage time" and don't actually help his team win. He's a fantasy football darling and a great, flashy story for E!SPN, but that's about it.

There are similar rankings at AdvancedNFLStats.com that put RGIII in 16th place in win probability added, but again he does well in expected points added (3rd place).

 

[SunnyD]

ESPN's QBR is a joke anyway. It's weighted by some arbitrarily decided "clutch play" metric.

 

[AMDZen]

I just can't see the Broncos beating the Patriots after the nightmare playoff game last season. I think it will obviously be closer but I think the Patriots win though I would LOVE to see the Broncos wipe the floor with them.

Out of those 3 games thats the one you can't see happening because of Tim Tebow? The team is completely different this year, on defense especially with a whole new scheme and d-coordinator.

I'd have a harder time seeing the Saints beating the Chargers or the Chiefs beating Baltimore. Just because NE finally looked like their old selves last week destroying a terrible Buffalo team doesn't mean much. Mario Williams doesn't even play now that he's been paid, our pass rush will scare the living shit out of Brady and that mediocre offense line. If Arizona can get to him and beat them at home, we sure as hell can.

Saints might end up 2-14 frankly and be drafting #1 overall, they have looked like a bottom 1-2 team in the league. Meanwhile the Broncos have only lost 2 games against the 2 best teams in the league, each by less than a touchdown. We are a top 10 team in the league, maybe top 5 and we'll start getting some recognition once we sack Brady 6 times and beat him at home

 

[benzylic]

Interesting and depressing stat about my Chiefs, they have at no point during the season led a game, and have trailed 204 out of 249 game minutes. That's pretty sad going into week 5.

 

[MiniDoom]

Well, well, well, look who leads the league in "Total QBR":

http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr

Who is that WAY down the list at #11?

that's why Luck was rookie player of the month....

 

[AMDZen]

Interesting and depressing stat about my Chiefs, they have at no point during the season led a game, and have trailed 204 out of 249 game minutes. That's pretty sad going into week 5.

Sad stat for a sad team with a terrible coach. As others have already learned, Romeo is a coordinator, not a coach. You should blame management for putting him back in a role he had already proved he couldn't handle.

 

[benzylic]

Interesting and depressing stat about my Chiefs, they have at no point during the season led a game, and have trailed 204 out of 249 game minutes. That's pretty sad going into week 5.

<br />
<br />
Sad stat for a sad team with a terrible coach. As others have already learned, Romeo is a coordinator, not a coach. You should blame management for putting him back in a role he had already proved he couldn't handle.

Completely agree. I think Pioli just wants yesmen though, and romeo fulfills that. The owner also doesn't want to spend any money. 26 million under the cap I believe.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

that's why Luck was rookie player of the month....

Luck couldn't make it to the presentation because he was RUNNING FOR HIS FREAKING LIFE while RG3 got to relax behind his offensive line and rest because of his competent defense.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

ESPN's QBR is a joke anyway. It's weighted by some arbitrarily decided "clutch play" metric.

AdvancedNFLStats.com also has Luck as a top 10 QB while RG3 is way down the list.

 

[MiniDoom]

Luck couldn't make it to the presentation because he was RUNNING FOR HIS FREAKING LIFE while RG3 got to relax behind his offensive line and rest because of his competent defense.

wut? skin o line is injury ridden and defense ranks 29th in the league. keep talking out your ass.

 

[dbk]

AdvancedNFLStats.com also has Luck as a top 10 QB while RG3 is way down the list.

Heard about that website on the local sportsradio this morning. One guy kinda, sorta agreed with it and got shitted on by everyone (obviously).

 

[AstroManLuca]

Heard about that website on the local sportsradio this morning. One guy kinda, sorta agreed with it and got shitted on by everyone (obviously).

The whole point of the website is the guy has broken down all the play-by-play data since 2000 in order to determine the actual probability of winning given a specific situation. He has a win probability calculator that lets you enter in a score differential, down and distance, yard line, and time remaining, and it'll say how likely it is for the team in that situation to win.

It is basically a way to filter out garbage time stats. If a QB enters the 4th quarter with a 35 point deficit and throws three touchdowns to bring the score differential down to 14 before time expires, he won't be given much credit in terms of win probability added. Because being down 35 at the start of the 4th quarter carries a 1% chance of winning and being down 14 with a minute left also carries a 1% chance of winning.

By the same token, a player who makes a crucial 4th down conversion near the end of a close game will be given a lot of WPA points, because he made a meaningful contribution to his team's chances of winning a game. A receiver simply catching a 10 yard pass in the final minute to keep a drive alive helps his team a lot more than a receiver who catches a couple of garbage time TDs in a futile effort.

 

[IndyColtsFan]

wut? skin o line is injury ridden and defense ranks 29th in the league. keep talking out your ass.

So what? The Colts offensive linemen would be second or third stringers on most teams. Your replacement offensive linemen are better than most of our starters.

But hey, keep making your own excuses. Two stats sites have Luck ranked higher.