Realistically, I think Seattle has to play phenomenal on offense to win this game. Even if they play amazing on defense, Denver is going to put up some points. Seattle will have to be able to put up 30+ to win, which they haven't exactly been doing so far.
I agree (not that my opinion counts) that I think Seattle needs to step up the
scoring production a bit. But I don't think it really matter where the scores come from though IMO. The offense has somehow put up 23 points in back to back playoff games against very good defenses. I think things are looking up for the offense, but also think Defense + Special teams could help add in some scoring that, if the offense continues to sputter, could be offset by the other units.
On their offense: True, their offense has looked rough for months; part of that is the defenses they played and part of it is teams are keeping better contain on Wilson--he is great on the run so contain keeps him in the pocket where he does well and can beat the blitz
if given time. What he doesn't do well is being stuck in the pocket with a strong push right up the gut which Seattle is vulnerable to pressure up the middle. Teams have figured this out.
IMO this is the way to slow Seattle's Offense down and is how teams have been doing it for a couple months:
Passing Weaknesses:
- Receivers are smaller and not exceptionally fast.
- OL is susceptible to pressure up the middle (weak Guard play).
- TEs and RBs tend to stay in to block to shore up line play.
- Wilson struggles with heavy pressure between the tackles when the flats are taken as he has no safety nets (e.g. Rice would often use his height for a medium out thrown high/outside to exploit the hole in the zone; a running back great out of the backfield on routes other than wide swing routes).
Passing Strengths:
+ Wilson passing on the run (better passing angles to throw receivers open / time to get open).
+ Wilson running on weak contain.
+ Play action--especially on straight drop backs (vs. bootleg).
+ Wilson in the pocket, especially on blitz plays, if adequate protection, especially up the middle, holds up for enough time to take a proper drop back and step.
People nationally are really mistaken on the last point. Wilson is not a bad pocket passer, even with the blitz. The problem is QB pressures. Wilson was #1 or #2 in QB pressures. Seattle's interior line (guards specifically) are really bad at pass blocking and get driven back often. Wilson does NOT do well with pressure up the middle if the flats are contained (against poor pass cover teams Wilson has done well in the pocket; Seattle receivers struggle a lot against better coverage units). So the strategy for months has been simple:
+ Keep edge contain, even if it means floating a player into the flats. SF did some floating; Arizona did a great job holding a wide edge with only modest pressure to force Wilson to stay in the pocket.
+ Focus your pass rush up the middle. You can push back the Seattle guards preventing Wilson from taking a proper drop back. Force him out of the pockets while keeping the edge/flat players in front of him.
+ Bring a safety down. This helps with the run game. It also fills holes from blitzing linebackers. It also clogs up short passing seems in the middle for short quick passes to nullify the blitz.
+ Play press on Seattle receivers. You don't need to jam them, just play the first 7 yards tight to prevent quick passing routes. They are not big enough to get the high/wide outs Rice would pull down and not fast enough to blow past the safety(s). Zone works fine as long as the quicker routes are substantially clogged.
This has forced Seattle to live off the run and big plays. And that is how they have been scoring TDs: Against NO Lynch had the 30+ as well as the 10+ yard rushing scores, Baldwin had the long catch on third down, etc. Against SF Lynch had the 40+ yard run, Kearse got the long pass on the free play/Wilson audible, and the Baldwin bomb on broken pass rush coverage when Wilson scrambled. But they have not been able to sustain drives well, or be effective in the red zone, as teams have caught on: The Seattle pass blocking interior is poor and Seattle doesn't have the personnel at Receiver to force "honest" coverage. Opponents have been banking on minimizing "explosive plays" and force Seattle to be effective in the run game to sustain long drives. All with the hope they themselves score enough and force Wilson into making mistakes. Of course the Defense has really clamped down on opponent scoring and Wilson, for all his recent troubles, has kept Seattle positive in the Turnover Ratio.
I don't think Seattle's MO works against Denver.
You cannot count on Wilson, in the SB, on having a perfectly clean game. So they need to account for this with extra scoring.
On the defensive end you cannot put it all on Seattle's defense, either. This is a team game and they will need help from the O and special teams because Denver can score, fast and in bunches. They can be down 3 1/2 quarters and then drop 2 quick TDs on you. They are great in the red zone. Seattle's doesn't need to fear Denver but they need to respect their potential and tailor their
offense to be in a position to
support their defense.
Ditto Denver: If Denver goes down 2 touchdowns late and is forced to throw against the LOB, well, good luck with that. If they have hit Manning a handful of times I think late in the game, when it is cold wind, if Denver is forced pass they are playing right into the teeth of the lion.
I hope this game plays up to the build up--not often we get great offenses against great defenses.
Ps- Wilson does need to step up his game, though. The last number of games he has had quite a few near-picks, he been running backwards (!), he has had poor hand offs, fumbling snaps, tried to hand off to the wrong side multiple times, has looked at wide open receivers and froze, has been throwing up medicine balls, made some really un-Wilson like reads & throws, etc. He is still making big plays and mostly taking care of the ball but his play as of late, since the Monday night New Orleans game, has appeared to be, "Just don't screw up" and he seems to be overthinking and making SIMPLE mistakes. I think he feels the pressure of not screw up which Seattle needs to avoid--they need to play to win, not play to not lose. Denver's offense is historically G-R-E-A-T so they need Wilson to cut out the rookie mistakes.
I hope come Monday we aren't all talking about how Wilson fell apart with bad handoffs and fumbled snaps.