Official Swine Flu thread.

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Gibsons

Lifer
Aug 14, 2001
12,530
35
91
Originally posted by: DLeRium
So the question is how BAD is it to get this disease in the US compared to the regular flu? I mean is this like the uber flu or will I just feel the same? Is it harder to fight?

No way to know just yet, the data is poor and scarce. It's likely just as contagious as regular flu, the concern is whether it has a higher mortality rate or not. It might, it might not, we just can't tell yet.

It is H1N1, so that makes me think it won't be horrible, but I'm speculating quite a bit.
 
Aug 10, 2001
10,424
2
0
It's 2009, right? There have been influenza outbreaks dating back thousands of years. Yet we're still puzzled by just about everything this virus does. Are we really that stupid?
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
Originally posted by: crazySOB297
Originally posted by: DLeRium
So the question is how BAD is it to get this disease in the US compared to the regular flu? I mean is this like the uber flu or will I just feel the same? Is it harder to fight?

Same, as easy to fight. More than likely less easy to control. Seems like it spreads faster than most.

I wouldn't say it really spreads any faster. Simply, a lot of people get short-term immunity of the common influenza strains, so after flu season, when a lot of people might have come down with the flu, they might still have that immunity, so cases out of season are small. Also, unreported. The flu spreads fast. Ever had a friend have the flu, and next thing you know a lot of people that friend hangs around with, or lives with, or even you, get the flu pretty quick? Influenza as a virus, regardless of strain, spreads fast when you have a species like us that tend to always be in close proximity to others at some point.

The Swine Flu, however, no one has any immunity to. So it's probably going to continue to spread fast, especially as you can catch it, and potentially start passing it on to others, before you even realize you are sick.

The one good thing about this media sensationalism is that it's going to make everyone super aware - they are going to avoid anyone that looks like they might be sick, hell, sneezing is probably going to get people bitching at others. But also, it's going to make everyone start wondering, do I have it? even after the most mild of symptoms, like a scratchy throat or feeling blue. Which means, this bug might be equally as dangerous as the Spanish Flu, but how we react, governments and the population, might prevent this from reaching the same terrible levels.
The pessimist in me is doubting that though. This will probably get ugly.

And, in general, this will probably be like the flu, infection lasting the same, for most individuals.
However, with what has happened in Mexico City (healthy adults dieing), and what had happened with the Spanish Flu (also an Influenza A H1N1 strain), healthy adults were the most susceptible, if they had strong immune systems. For some reason the Spanish Flu caused the immune system to go into crazy overdrive. For those with strong immune systems, this meant the overactive immune system caused serious harm to the body, and could (and did, not in every case mind you) cause death. Those with weaker immune systems, the overdrive ended up still being in levels that the human body could withstand - for the most part... there are always those that don't fit the curve.
 

Gibsons

Lifer
Aug 14, 2001
12,530
35
91
Originally posted by: Random Variable
It's 2009, right? There have been influenza outbreaks dating back thousands of years. Yet we're still puzzled by just about everything this virus does. Are we really that stupid?

We know a ton about what the virus does.

But yes, collectively, we really are that stupid.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
Originally posted by: Gibsons
Originally posted by: DLeRium
So the question is how BAD is it to get this disease in the US compared to the regular flu? I mean is this like the uber flu or will I just feel the same? Is it harder to fight?

No way to know just yet, the data is poor and scarce. It's likely just as contagious as regular flu, the concern is whether it has a higher mortality rate or not. It might, it might not, we just can't tell yet.

It is H1N1, so that makes me think it won't be horrible, but I'm speculating quite a bit.

While I'd enjoy the thought that it won't be horrible, you do know the last H1N1 pandemic was the Spanish Flu, correct?
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
Originally posted by: Random Variable
It's 2009, right? There have been influenza outbreaks dating back thousands of years. Yet we're still puzzled by just about everything this virus does. Are we really that stupid?

....
Yes. Am I the only one who really thinks mankind is far from the level of intelligence most of humanity thinks we have? We do learn, and we do amazing things, but we aren't that smart at all, just highly capable. It's funny though that the smallest things in the world are still our number one enemy, and I imagine they always will be. We can continue to eradicate viruses, and others will just show up for the opportunity. As a complex animal, we have basically the largest population on Earth (small bugs have us outnumbered, but the complexity of our species is what makes us such a juicy target, among many other mammals) - viruses will always rise to the occasion, we are the perfect breeding ground to bump up their numbers. We will never be free of our viral and bacterial enemies.
 

DukeFan21

Senior member
Jan 15, 2002
948
0
0
Originally posted by: TheVrolok
Just had 2 patients transferred out of my ER who were positive for Influenza A, will obviously have to wait for official confirmation on whether it was swine or not. Allentown, PA.

I just opened this thread to say I just saw the first case confirmed in PA (Philly). Although not yet confirmed, I wasn't expecting this to make its way to the Lehigh Valley already (I'm from Whitehall)
 

Gibsons

Lifer
Aug 14, 2001
12,530
35
91
Originally posted by: destrekor
Originally posted by: Gibsons
Originally posted by: DLeRium
So the question is how BAD is it to get this disease in the US compared to the regular flu? I mean is this like the uber flu or will I just feel the same? Is it harder to fight?

No way to know just yet, the data is poor and scarce. It's likely just as contagious as regular flu, the concern is whether it has a higher mortality rate or not. It might, it might not, we just can't tell yet.

It is H1N1, so that makes me think it won't be horrible, but I'm speculating quite a bit.

While I'd enjoy the thought that it won't be horrible, you do know the last H1N1 pandemic was the Spanish Flu, correct?

Exactly. Humans have been under selection for the ability to develop immunity to H1 for quite a while. The very highly susceptible population is dead.

This version of H1 might have something really special to it, but imo that's unlikely. My suspicion is it's just a variant in the same ~18 amino acids on the exterior portion of hemagglutinin that we usually see. But I'm not completely sure as I haven't seen any sequence data.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
67
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9 schools in CT closed tomorrow. Along with sanitization(shakes head at how public buildings have to cater to 1% of the ignorant)
 

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,077
136
Originally posted by: DukeFan21
Originally posted by: TheVrolok
Just had 2 patients transferred out of my ER who were positive for Influenza A, will obviously have to wait for official confirmation on whether it was swine or not. Allentown, PA.

I just opened this thread to say I just saw the first case confirmed in PA (Philly). Although not yet confirmed, I wasn't expecting this to make its way to the Lehigh Valley already (I'm from Whitehall)

We're now up to 4 so far tonight. Again, just Influenza A, no confirmation on whether or not it's swine. I'm sure if we're seeing some so are the other hospitals in the city. So oh well, so much for the Valley.

Interesting to see another AT member from the Valley, and so close over in Whitehall.
 

destrekor

Lifer
Nov 18, 2005
28,799
359
126
Yikes. Franklin County (Ohio) officials earlier stated they had a probable case of Influenza A, awaiting results of tests.

Not sure if this is connected, as the officials didn't identify location or the individual...

Just received an email from the OSU Medical Center (in Franklin County, Ohio - city of Columbus) stating they treated a med center employee, who is a probable case of H1N1. Said to have contracted the virus outside of the workplace.

That might be 2 in Columbus region. OSU is the largest school in the country. Thankfully I'm leaving here tomorrow morning through Sunday night for some ROTC training. Hopefully we don't return to see some post-apocalyptic zombie wasteland.
 

EightySix Four

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2004
5,121
49
91
Remember Spanish Flu only had a mortality rate of 2.2%, it's all about how fast it spreads and how many people it spreads to.
 

Q

Lifer
Jul 21, 2005
12,060
4
81
Some high school here is closed tomorrow or something b/c a group of kids who went on a trip are now sick with flu like symptoms
 

Regs

Lifer
Aug 9, 2002
16,665
21
81
Originally posted by: Gibsons
Originally posted by: Random Variable
It's 2009, right? There have been influenza outbreaks dating back thousands of years. Yet we're still puzzled by just about everything this virus does. Are we really that stupid?

We know a ton about what the virus does.

But yes, collectively, we really are that stupid.

Wait until you hear that Mexico will be manufacturing flu vaccines for us next year =).

Cheap labor....and no...I wish this was a joke.

 
Aug 10, 2001
10,424
2
0
From what I understand the 1918 virus was a pure avian virus that developed the ability to spread from person to person without having to first combine with a human virus. This virus is a hybrid virus, like the other two viruses that caused pandemics last century.
 

Q

Lifer
Jul 21, 2005
12,060
4
81
Originally posted by: Random Variable
From what I understand the 1918 virus was a pure avian virus that developed the ability to spread from person to person without having first to combine with a human virus. This virus is a hybrid virus, like the two other pandemics last century.

huh
 

EightySix Four

Diamond Member
Jul 17, 2004
5,121
49
91
Originally posted by: Random Variable
From what I understand the 1918 virus was a pure avian virus that developed the ability to spread from person to person without having to first combine with a human virus. This virus is a hybrid virus, like the other two viruses that caused pandemics last century.

"Researchers working separately at the Scripps Institute in La Jolla, California and at Britain's Medical Research Council discover that the 1918 virus may have jumped directly from birds to humans rather than going from birds to pigs and then infecting humans. They say it explains why the 1918 strain was so deadly, since human immune systems aren't prepared for viruses coming directly from birds."

It's an interesting theory, but:

"Using lung tissue taken 79 years earlier during the autopsy of a U.S. Army private who died of the 1918 flu, scientists at the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology analyze the 1918 virus and conclude that it is a unique virus but is related to the "swine flu." According to one researcher: "The hemagglutinin gene matches closest to swine influenza viruses, showing that this virus came into humans from pigs."
 

SmoochyTX

Lifer
Apr 19, 2003
13,618
0
0
From the local news - Female high school student in Houston, TX area (lives in Fort Bend county but goes to school in Harris county) was diagnosed with it today. The school she goes to has been closed temporarily. She was never serious enough to have been admitted to hospital. There are a possible 30 others that could be diagnosed due to her.

We're all going to die!!!!! jk

Link
 

Goosemaster

Lifer
Apr 10, 2001
48,777
3
81

Live from mexico - health minister says Federal government closed from the 1st to the 5th of may

Threat level raised to level 5


140 pending diagnosies to be released tomorrow.
 

Eureka

Diamond Member
Sep 6, 2005
3,822
1
81
I thought they stopped treating the swine flu so seriously. You don't even hear about it in the news anymore.
 
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