The problem is the debate was pure fodder for the talking Head machines.Major opportunity of an event few people actually watch, especially so called undecided and political disengaged voters?
The entire debate format is so disengaged from the actual job as president, it makes me wonder what value these things even have. Especially when the format is zero push back from moderators and no addressing elephants in the room (34 felonies, etc).
Well the news cycle will end tomorrow with SCOTUS immunity ruling. Will be either calls to restart immediately Jan 6 case or Biden to just assassinate all the naysayers.Yes, the cycle this has kicked off is going to be more damaging than the debate itself.
I started thinking it at about 8:15 pm central time. I haven't watched any people on TV talking about it. Biden looked fucking terrible and basically confirmed the number one attack against him. Further he did nothing to capitalize on one of the few major opportunities he has to change minds.
Ah ok so now you admit that in the past changed their mind about Trump (when people also claimed Trumpers would never change their mind) but NOW they don’t anymore?He recovered the switchers from previous non-voters. The people that care any hook being crazy loon already stepped away from him in the last 8 years. No one that was planning on voting for trump Thursday morning is going to see his performance on Thursday night and change their minds.
They are most likely going to say he has some sort of immunity that falls far short of what he claims and then will kick it back to the lower courts for more consideration so it’s not resolved before the election.Well the news cycle will end tomorrow with SCOTUS immunity ruling. Will be either calls to restart immediately Jan 6 case or Biden to just assassinate all the naysayers.
Well the news cycle will end tomorrow with SCOTUS immunity ruling. Will be either calls to restart immediately Jan 6 case or Biden to just assassinate all the naysayers.
That's largely my point: the people that talk about the debate, that clearly have a vested interest in ensuring Trump isn't elected, could have chosen different framing. They need to stop acting like these are normal times as if both candidates parties are equally legitimate and have a shared interest in our country. They could have focused on the nonstop lies and question evasion of Trump, or continue to hammer on his felony convictions and pending felony cases, the conservative judicial SCOTUS appointments [that a Republican administration would propagate] that should be resigning because of corruption...The problem is the debate was pure fodder for the talking Head machines.
The interwebs are where most people form their opinions.
You don't need to watch the debate. You just need to go somewhere where they will tell you what you should think about it.
They are most likely going to say he has some sort of immunity that falls far short of what he claims and then will kick it back to the lower courts for more consideration so it’s not resolved before the election.
Can they provide some granularity? Can the president whip up a mob that just happens to kill his opponent?Obviously the president cannot just kill us but he may perhaps have a lower level immunity that allows him to wind up a mob and set it on the legislature. Something like that.
Fair enough. Sure more people aware of debate blunder than this SCOTUS decision. But repercussions far greater for the latterFWIW I've heard no normal people talking about this in real life. Not that anybody but the somewhat insane (namely people like us) willfully wants to think about the November election rerun in June.
Nate Silver said it a long time ago, DJT has a high floor and a low ceiling. And with the rigged Electoral College, he just needs to get about 49% of the total "popular vote," picking up a few swing states and he wins.He got MORE votes in 2020 than 2016. You can deny it all you want, but his poll numbers don't move no matter how much more crazy shit he's done. The people that support trump don't care what he says, or they he is convicted, or that he stole and gave away classified information.
I've given it a lot of thought and maybe Comeback Joe surprises us once again and pulls off an "upset" in November. Or maybe we replace him at the top of the ticket and manage to squeak out a win (I am extremely hesitant about Harris and Newsom, and I'm a Californian who supports both). BUT it's pure insanity to suggest DJT also failed the debate. We know he lied his ass off, but his performance was good enough by his wonky standards.I started thinking it at about 8:15 pm central time. I haven't watched any people on TV talking about it. Biden looked fucking terrible and basically confirmed the number one attack against him. Further he did nothing to capitalize on one of the few major opportunities he has to change minds.
But we’re looking at results. With the exception of winning back the house, all election results favouring Dems since 2018.* And at some point, polls do have predictive power and we're getting closer to that point.
BUT it's pure insanity to suggest DJT also failed the debate. We know he lied his ass off, but his performance was good enough by his wonky standards.
Yeah, 55 million people is just a few people. Let me know what other opportunities Biden will have between now and the election to get 55 million people to watch him.Major opportunity of an event few people actually watch, especially so called undecided and political disengaged voters?
The entire debate format is so disengaged from the actual job as president, it makes me wonder what value these things even have. Especially when the format is zero push back from moderators and no addressing elephants in the room (34 felonies, etc).
Nate Silver said it a long time ago, DJT has a high floor and a low ceiling. And with the rigged Electoral College, he just needs to get about 49% of the total "popular vote," picking up a few swing states and he wins.
What's mind-boggling is the rehabilitation of DJT over the past 2 years. Right after J6, he was dead to even the establishment GOP; and he was still considered a has-been for basically all of 2021. Even entering the GOP primary, nobody really knew that the voters would rally around him so decisively. (Remember when Ron De Santis was polling in the 30s or 40s or whatever it was at his peak?) I guess you could say pundits thought GOP voters could be reasonable folks and repudiate Trump, but we learned that Trumpism had completed a takeover of the GOP.
In a rational world, the ringleader of J6 should not only be toxic waste but he would be in prison for a very long time. We're in a really fucked up timeline where cultists and rubes have the collective power to ruin this country.
I've given it a lot of thought and maybe Comeback Joe surprises us once again and pulls off an "upset" in November. Or maybe we replace him at the top of the ticket and manage to squeak out a win (I am extremely hesitant about Harris and Newsom, and I'm a Californian who supports both). BUT it's pure insanity to suggest DJT also failed the debate. We know he lied his ass off, but his performance was good enough by his wonky standards.
With 4 months to go, I think Biden is the underdog. I think people are fooling themselves by repeating, "polls don't have predictive power this far out." That may be the case, but Biden's job approval rating hasn't budged in 2 years even as the national economy has outperformed all of its peers.* Now I don't think it's hopeless but it's sheer insanity that a few folks here have recently (pre-debate) claimed they expect Biden to trounce DJT in November. WTF do they even base that on?
* And at some point, polls do have predictive power and we're getting closer to that point.
I said that anyone that gives a shit about trump being a lying asshole has already changed their minds. Do you really think the people that stuck with him through the first 30,000 public lies, COVID, Jan 6th, felony convictions, and being caught with classified data are all of a sudden decide "man Trump said a bunch of BS at the debate, I guess I'm done with him."Ah ok so now you admit that in the past changed their mind about Trump (when people also claimed Trumpers would never change their mind) but NOW they don’t anymore?
Yeah, 55 million people is just a few people. Let me know what other opportunities Biden will have between now and the election to get 55 million people to watch him.
So when will be his next opportunity to reach that many people?Is 51 million people a lot of people in the abstract? Sure. On a relative basis to other 1st presidential debates it's the weakest since 2000 Bush-Gore though. If you adjust for voting age population basis it looks even worse.
So when will be his next opportunity to reach that many people?
Yes, yes, yes but . . . let's not forget just how incredibly BAD the optics on Biden in front on ~50 million people.By doing media now till November. Debates themselves just do not historically move a lot of people and Americas interest in this one was really low by contemporary standards.
Yes, yes, yes but . . . let's not forget just how incredibly BAD the optics on Biden in front on ~50 million people.
Not those people, no. Sadly, each side was hunting for the tiny segment in the 50 million who watched*, who for reasons I can't begin to fathom, remain open to voting for either, or can be steered away from staying home or voting 3rd party.If those people weren't convinced by a coup.. do you think Biden can really sell himself to them?
Past performance is not a predictor of future results.But we’re looking at results. With the exception of winning back the house, all election results favouring Dems since 2018.
Fair points, but it's unclear if 2020 is a good guide to this election. By all accounts, the electorate wants neither of the two candidates so turnout should be lower.
- Based on 2020 the more Trump rally’s his base the more turnout the Dems get.
- A small percentage of independent and conservative voters who voted for Trump previously will not vote for a convicted felon now.
- Overturning Roe will pull female support from Trump that he had and turnout women who didn’t vote last election.
- Dems have been out performing special elections since Roe was overturned.
Past performance is not a predictor of future results.
Fair points, but it's unclear if 2020 is a good guide to this election. By all accounts, the electorate wants neither of the two candidates so turnout should be lower.
Exactly 4 years ago, Joe Biden was +9.6 in the polling aggregate. Would you rather have that or his current situation, even if some of the polling subgroups look peculiar? Up until the debate, I thought we're looking at somewhat of a coin flip and that alone should be concerning. The fact that the future of our democracy depends on some (tens of) thousands of people coming to their senses in just five states is very sobering.