He got MORE votes in 2020 than 2016. You can deny it all you want, but his poll numbers don't move no matter how much more crazy shit he's done. The people that support trump don't care what he says, or they he is convicted, or that he stole and gave away classified information.
Nate Silver said it a long time ago, DJT has a high floor and a low ceiling. And with the rigged Electoral College, he just needs to get about 49% of the total "popular vote," picking up a few swing states and he wins.
What's mind-boggling is the rehabilitation of DJT over the past 2 years. Right after J6, he was dead to even the establishment GOP; and he was still considered a has-been for basically all of 2021. Even entering the GOP primary, nobody really
knew that the voters would rally around him so decisively. (Remember when Ron De Santis was polling in the 30s or 40s or whatever it was at his peak?) I guess you could say pundits
thought GOP voters could be reasonable folks and repudiate Trump, but we learned that Trumpism had completed a takeover of the GOP.
In a rational world, the ringleader of J6 should not only be toxic waste but he would be in prison for a very long time. We're in a really fucked up timeline where cultists and rubes have the collective power to ruin this country.
I started thinking it at about 8:15 pm central time. I haven't watched any people on TV talking about it. Biden looked fucking terrible and basically confirmed the number one attack against him. Further he did nothing to capitalize on one of the few major opportunities he has to change minds.
I've given it a lot of thought and maybe
Comeback Joe surprises us once again and pulls off an "upset" in November. Or maybe we replace him at the top of the ticket and manage to squeak out a win (I am extremely hesitant about Harris and Newsom, and I'm a Californian who supports both). BUT it's pure insanity to suggest DJT also failed the debate.
We know he lied his ass off, but his performance was good enough by his
wonky standards.
With 4 months to go, I think Biden is the underdog. I think people are fooling themselves by repeating, "polls don't have predictive power this far out." That may be the case, but Biden's job approval rating hasn't budged in 2 years even as the national economy has outperformed
all of its peers.* Now I don't think it's hopeless but it's sheer insanity that a few folks here have recently (pre-debate) claimed they expect Biden to trounce DJT in November. WTF do they even base that on?
* And at some point, polls
do have predictive power and we're getting closer to that point.