For what its worth, MS may be falling victim to its massive sales numbers here. They just passed 25 million consoles. Even if they had the industry average 3% failure rate, you're still talking 750k bad consoles. People don't go on boards to discuss how long their system lived - they go on boards to complain about the ones that died.
Now, Falcons are estimated around 10%, *and that's not good for sure*, but the odds are you will still be okay. And, if not, who cares? Keep your HD, buy a arcade for 200 bucks, ebay your warranty repaired 360 when it comes back. Very little out of pocket - and you got to have fun in the meantime.
I wanted Jasper like all of you guys do - but in the end what I REALLY wanted to do was play some games. IF my system dies, Jasper will more then likely be out and I probably won't have to go crazy looking at Lot numbers to make sure I got one.