oh no you didn't....

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
70,226
28,931
136
A site that requires the reader to stare at an ad for 15 secs before moving to content? Forget that.
 

ShadowOfMyself

Diamond Member
Jun 22, 2006
4,227
2
0
The birthday one... Dafuq? How does that make any sense?

If you have 23 people and there are 365 possible birthdays, how can the chance of two people sharing a birthday be 50%? When I was in school I always had 20+ people classes and there was NEVER anyone with the same birthday as me, and from what I remember no one had the same birthday to begin with

Sounds like bullshit to me
 

Rakehellion

Lifer
Jan 15, 2013
12,181
35
91
The birthday one... Dafuq? How does that make any sense?

If you have 23 people and there are 365 possible birthdays, how can the chance of two people sharing a birthday be 50%? When I was in school I always had 20+ people classes and there was NEVER anyone with the same birthday as me, and from what I remember no one had the same birthday to begin with

Sounds like bullshit to me

Anecdotal evidence is not math.
 

rcpratt

Lifer
Jul 2, 2009
10,433
110
116
The birthday one... Dafuq? How does that make any sense?

If you have 23 people and there are 365 possible birthdays, how can the chance of two people sharing a birthday be 50%? When I was in school I always had 20+ people classes and there was NEVER anyone with the same birthday as me, and from what I remember no one had the same birthday to begin with

Sounds like bullshit to me

Didn't click the link, but I'm sure it means 50% chance of the entire class having one or more "birthday pair."
 

Jeeebus

Diamond Member
Aug 29, 2006
9,179
897
126
I find the Monty Hall 'Problem' fairly idiotic, so I stopped reading beyond there. Anyone who argues the chances of winning are greater than 50/50 once the other doors are revealed needs to be punched in the prostate.
 

Rakehellion

Lifer
Jan 15, 2013
12,181
35
91
No idea, but it was amusing. ^_^







Is the simplest, clearest explanation.

KT

That's wrong. Your odds were 1/3, until you were shown the door with the goat.

If you do the problem in reverse with two doors, one with a car and one with a goat, your odds are 50%. If they show you another goat, your odds are still 50%. It only works by confusing the problem.

Once you're shown the undesirable doors, they're eliminated from the equation, thus it's irrelevant how many there were.
 

EliteRetard

Diamond Member
Mar 6, 2006
6,490
1,021
136
The birthday one... Dafuq? How does that make any sense?

If you have 23 people and there are 365 possible birthdays, how can the chance of two people sharing a birthday be 50%? When I was in school I always had 20+ people classes and there was NEVER anyone with the same birthday as me, and from what I remember no one had the same birthday to begin with

Sounds like bullshit to me

You're probably thinking 365 options in a hat and everybody picking one...in which case the chances are zero that anybody will have the same. But if they pick one and then put their result back in the bag the chances are greater that somebody will indeed pick one that was already picked the more people you have picking.
 

Pheran

Diamond Member
Apr 26, 2001
5,740
35
91
Yeah. I think that's wrong and it only works by confusing the question.

If you have two doors, your odds can never be greater or worse than 50%. Just like if there were only two doors to begin with.

I find the Monty Hall 'Problem' fairly idiotic, so I stopped reading beyond there. Anyone who argues the chances of winning are greater than 50/50 once the other doors are revealed needs to be punched in the prostate.

Both of you are failing at math. This is why this problem is controversial - because the correct answer is counterintuitive.
 

kranky

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
21,017
147
106
That's wrong. Your odds were 1/3, until you were shown the door with the goat.

If you do the problem in reverse with two doors, one with a car and one with a goat, your odds are 50%. If they show you another goat, your odds are still 50%. It only works by confusing the problem.

Once you're shown the undesirable doors, they're eliminated from the equation, thus it's irrelevant how many there were.

How about if you pick one of the doors, and I get the other two?
Now we show you one of my doors is a goat (which, of course, one of my doors had to be, so this changes nothing.)
If it's 50/50 like you say, then your odds of winning would be the same whether you switch or not. So you don't get to switch.
Do you think we'll both win half the time, or will I win twice as often?
 

Jeeebus

Diamond Member
Aug 29, 2006
9,179
897
126
Both of you are failing at math. This is why this problem is controversial - because the correct answer is counterintuitive.

The thought of me traveling to Pittsburgh to hit you is counterintuitive. Please do me a solid and punch yourself in the prostate.
 

Pheran

Diamond Member
Apr 26, 2001
5,740
35
91
That's wrong. Your odds were 1/3, until you were shown the door with the goat.

If you do the problem in reverse with two doors, one with a car and one with a goat, your odds are 50%. If they show you another goat, your odds are still 50%. It only works by confusing the problem.

Once you're shown the undesirable doors, they're eliminated from the equation, thus it's irrelevant how many there were.

Wrong. Look at the following slide that has 50 doors, then see if you still feel the same way.
 

Pheran

Diamond Member
Apr 26, 2001
5,740
35
91
The thought of me traveling to Pittsburgh to hit you is counterintuitive. Please do me a solid and punch yourself in the prostate.

You can hate on me all you like, it won't change the right answer. Both of you should take a look at the 50 door example, but I'll put it in text.

There are 50 doors, behind them are 49 goats and 1 new car. You choose one door, then I open 48 doors with goats, leaving one unopened door. You still want to keep that first door you chose, which has a 2% chance of being the correct door?
 

Jeeebus

Diamond Member
Aug 29, 2006
9,179
897
126
You can hate on me all you like, it won't change the right answer. Both of you should take a look at the 50 door example, but I'll put it in text.

There are 50 doors, behind them are 49 goats and 1 new car. You choose one door, then I open 48 doors with goats, leaving one unopened door. You still want to keep that first door you chose, which has a 2% chance of being the correct door?

Yes.

And it doesn't matter if we're doing this 1,000 times, my answer is always going to be yes and my chance of winning is always going to be 50%.

There could be 10,000 options and the odds would always be the same. Because every time we do this exercise, you're going to show me 9,998 doors that are goats. Meaning no matter which door I pick, it's going to come down to my door or one other door.

Your logic is flawed, and your underarms smell too.
 
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