I think the picture that shows the three possible outcomes should be sufficient.
And so on until you're left with two tickets. You aren't at one in a million if all other other tickets have been voided.
I refuse to look at the remaining problems.
It took me a day, but I'm actually starting to process this. My mind is blown.
I refuse to look at the remaining problems.
Are you going to punch yourself in the prostate?
Did you try the simulator?
Are you going to punch yourself in the prostate?
Did you try the simulator?
There's a prostate punching simulator?
Wow I didn't know the Monty Hall problem was controversial. I also didn't know it was called the Monty Hall problem.
It makes perfect sense.
I already stubbed my toe to a newly discovered shade of purple yesterday. I've suffered enough.
^Idiots who think they're right.
I don't get fact # 6 at all. The plumber is an accountant simply because he accepts money as payment for parts used and services rendered?
I'm pretty sure it has to be trolling. I have seen grown adults unable to understand this problem though.
To me the issue with the original version of the problem has always been one of psychology. There's actually a fairly large chance that you picked the right door (1/3) and you're going to feel 'dumb' if you switch and lose, even though it was the correct way to play.
Most of us don't get repeated chances to play dominant strategy games like this for high stakes. You don't get two-thirds of a new car for playing properly. You either get the car, or you don't.
I didn't read the explanation thoroughly, but just from glancing at the Venn diagrams, it seems the key lies in the fact that the only two choices are "Accountant" or "Accountant and Plumber" rather than "Accountant" or "Plumber." Something about the the set of "Accountant and Plumber" being smaller than the set of "Accountant" because it is a subset.
This seems kinda dumb because it deals with the problem strictly mathematically, and doesn't deal with the (highly relevant, IMO) real-world context.
Same concept applies. Even though your odds were one in a million, you know that was a farce.
You know for a fact that:
John Smith on Cherry street didn't win. That makes your odds go up.
Your lotto pool at the office didn't win. That makes your odds go up even more.
Jenny who prayed to Jesus for the winning numbers didn't win. That makes your odds go up.
And so on until you're left with two tickets. You aren't at one in a million if all other other tickets have been voided.
I don't get fact # 6 at all. The plumber is an accountant simply because he accepts money as payment for parts used and services rendered?
think about it this way: before the tickets are removed from the other pot, you switch your picked ticket with one in the pot, then all the losers are removed from that pot, save the one potential winning ticket.
A site that requires the reader to stare at an ad for 15 secs before moving to content? Forget that.
It's critical to remember the person removing the losers KNOWS which ones are losers, and both the player and the host know there are that many losers in the pile. So removing the losers does not change the odds of the INITIAL choice. The host knows which one is the winner - this is key. The ones that were removed are not chosen at random!
I don't get fact # 6 at all. The plumber is an accountant simply because he accepts money as payment for parts used and services rendered?