oh no you didn't....

[blackdogdeek]

For the monty hall problem, think about it like this. We'll use the 50 door example.

So you pick 1 door, 49 remain. Instead of Monty opening up 48 wrong doors, he just goes, "look, I'll trade you my 49 doors for you 1 door. If the car is in any of the 49 doors, you get to keep it." Would you accept his offer? Of course right? Because 49/50 is better than 1/50.

Well that is essentially what is going on even if Monty opens up the doors.

What is boils down to is that you are TRADING your 1 door for his 49 doors (or 2 doors in the original problem).

I like this explanation, too.

 

[phucheneh]

Did anyone ever mention to Whatsisface McIllogical back there that the person who reveals all the losers knows where the winner is?

That's all that really needs to be said. You picked [for instance] one in a million. Odds...1:1,000,000. Some guy looks to see if you won. If you didn't (999,999:1,000,000), he sets the winner aside and reveals all the losers (999,999 tickets plus whoever taught you math).

Nothing else is needed to grasp this. I wonder is this dude is actually that girl from the Dawkins debate.

 

[zinfamous]

Did anyone ever mention to Whatsisface McIllogical back there that the person who reveals all the losers knows where the winner is?

Countless times.

It's how abject denial and, to that end, conspiracy theories work--ignore or toss out all of the relevant data that is crucial to the subject, and, more importantly, rejects the denier's argument.

 

[Ichinisan]

I didn't read the explanation thoroughly, but just from glancing at the Venn diagrams, it seems the key lies in the fact that the only two choices are "Accountant" or "Accountant and Plumber" rather than "Accountant" or "Plumber." Something about the the set of "Accountant and Plumber" being smaller than the set of "Accountant" because it is a subset.

This seems kinda dumb because it deals with the problem strictly mathematically, and doesn't deal with the (highly relevant, IMO) real-world context.

Where does the accountant role even come in? Are we talking about his profession? ...or just the activity of accounting?

Why can't accountant-plumbers be a subset of plumbers? I'll have to look at it again when I get home.

 

[Ichinisan]

Six is merely saying that if your only two options are that a person is an

Accountant
Accountant AND a Plumber

that the first option is more likely. The first option includes ALL accountants, the second includes ONLY accountants that are also plumbers.

From what I understand, they simply said: "Is he more likely to be an accountant, or a plumber?" I don't know why there was any suggestion that he's an accountant by profession. I don't know why accountant-plumbers are assumed to be a subset of accountants, but not a subset of plumbers.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Rakehellion, here is the actual breakdown of the Monty Hall Problem. Note the 1/3 winners when standing pat and 2/3 winners when switching.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

The birthday one's stupid. I have 40+ employees and none of them have the same birthday. I've interviewed people with my same birthday though.

That's why it's a probability and not a certainty. 40+ people fall into an 85% or so range of sharing a birthday; fairly high odds, but not a guarantee. The only way to guarantee a shared birthday is to have 367 people (to account for a February 29th birthday).

 

[JujuFish]

From what I understand, they simply said: "Is he more likely to be an accountant, or a plumber?" I don't know why there was any suggestion that he's an accountant by profession. I don't know why accountant-plumbers are assumed to be a subset of accountants, but not a subset of plumbers.

No, that wasn't the question, which is why you're probably not getting it. The question was, "Is he more likely to be an accountant or both an accountant and a plumber?" Since the latter is a subset of the former, he is more likely to be the former.

 

[Ichinisan]

No, that wasn't the question, which is why you're probably not getting it. The question was, "Is he more likely to be an accountant or both an accountant and a plumber?" Since the latter is a subset of the former, he is more likely to be the former.

I follow you. I'll read the slides again.

 

[maziwanka]

The thought of me traveling to Pittsburgh to hit you is counterintuitive. Please do me a solid and punch yourself in the prostate.

wow. the math is correct in the problem

 

[maziwanka]

I like this explanation, too.

same here. neat way to look at it

 

[Schfifty Five]

I like this explanation, too.

same here. neat way to look at it

:thumbsup: