eia short term outlook
"EIA?s Outlook is for prices to remain firm through the rest of 2003, or at least until autumn, when OECD oil inventories may rebuild above observed 5-year lows. Once inventories have been rebuilt, WTI oil prices may slide gradually to $26 per barrel during 2004, as Iraqi oil exports return to near pre-war levels"
this is just one reason, not the only reason. but clearly building up inventories has an effect on prices.
eia this week in petroleum
"Even if spot gasoline prices don?t rise substantially from where they were last week (and already we?ve seen a huge spike in gasoline prices around the Los Angeles area due to refinery and pipeline problems earlier this week)"
"In all three years, the high prices earlier in the season encouraged increased refinery production of gasoline, which helped push gasoline prices back to levels seen before the early season price surge. However, in both 2000 and 2001, refinery production of gasoline dropped by late summer as refiners began to shift their yields towards making more distillate fuel. Additionally, in 2001, crude inputs into refineries dropped in late summer, thus making the reduction in gasoline production more dramatic. But this year, gasoline refinery production has remained relatively strong, with historically strong gasoline demand putting pressure on prices. With the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil above $30 per barrel recently, higher gasoline prices would likely be necessary to encourage refiners to process more crude oil. Therefore, any further increase in retail gasoline prices could encourage even more gasoline production and ultimately lead to lower gasoline prices down the road. But this may not occur until after the end of the summer season."
simple supply and demand