On the budget, Obama has Republicans cornered

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senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Good luck with that. GOP is going to be blamed for the shutdown, unless they come out and repudiate the tea partiers calling for it. Trying to split the difference is not going to work. And if you think it will be forgotten by 2012, this is just a preview of much bigger 2012 budget battles.
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Though I don't think a shut down would be the worse thing in the world, it really isn't worth 30 billion in cuts.

I would suggest the republicans take the 30 billion and at the same time suggest to the democrats to offer more cuts to avert a shutdown.

If the shutdown was over something more meaningful I would support it but it really isn't worth 1% of the budget. Just make a deal already, someone, for gods sake. Lets just end this charade.
Probably the smartest thing for the Republicans would be to drop the riders, pass the budget the Democrats failed to pass, and hit hard with the 2012 budget. Both Obama and Reid have vowed to veto and kill respectively any attempt to pass yet another continuing resolution, which indicates they probably have favorable internal polling on their ability to successfully blame the Republicans for a government shut-down. Also, the more time the Republicans spend on fixing the Democrats' failures, the less time the Pubbies have to make their own.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
If they fold after the shutdown starts with the country watching, they lose the tea partiers and leverage for 2012 budget too. If they don't fold, they'll lose independents who really don't want government shut down over planned parenthood timing. They are sort of cornered.

Reading about 95 shutdown:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_government_shutdown_of_1995

On November 13, major players on both sides, including Vice President Al Gore, Dick Armey, and Bob Dole, met once more to try resolving the budget. In response to a discussion on Medicare, Clinton writes:[1]
“ Armey replied gruffly that if I didn't give in to them, they would shut the government down and my presidency would be over. I shot back, saying I would never allow their budget to become law, "even if I drop to 5 percent in the polls. If you want your budget, you'll have to get someone else to sit in this chair!" Not surprisingly, we didn't make a deal.
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
-snip
What I *really* wonder about is how in-line "Tea Party thinking" is to "Republican thinking". I think the Tea Party has Boehner by the short hairs.

Boehner has a problem.

I don't see how he can put forth a budget that doesn't have at least a mojority of Repubs voting for it. IDK how big the block of TEA Party and 'big cutters' are, but he can't merely put to gether a coalition of moderate Dems & Repubs to get something passed. IMO, if he doesn't get a majority of his own party to go along he risks being removed as Speaker

If the TEA Party and 'big cutter' block is big enough we may well see a prolonged standoff on this. And likely one again for the upcoming budget.

I don't see how those new Congresspersons elected as TEA Party candidates can possibly vote for anything but steep cuts. Otherwise, they'll never win reelection.

Irresistable force say "hello" to immovable object.

Fern
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
-snip-
And if you think it will be forgotten by 2012, this is just a preview of much bigger 2012 budget battles.

That's just one other good reason this shutdown will be forgotten.

We're looking at an even bigger fight over the next budget due in a few months and the one next year before the election. But that's alo a reason Boehner might just get something done for this past due budget. Even if unacceptable to the TEA Party and 'bid cutters' they can really hit the next two budgets.

Fern
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
That's just one other good reason this shutdown will be forgotten.

We're looking at an even bigger fight over the next budget due in a few months and the one next year before the election. But that's alo a reason Boehner might just get something done for this past due budget. Even if unacceptable to the TEA Party and 'bid cutters' they can really hit the next two budgets.

Fern

Hit with what? If GOP folds now, what leverage do they have? Whatever big cuts they are dreaming of, Obama is just going to say: "Or else what, you are going to shut down the government? Go ahead, we've seen this movie."
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Hit with what? If GOP folds now, what leverage do they have? Whatever big cuts they are dreaming of, Obama is just going to say: "Or else what, you are going to shut down the government? Go ahead, we've seen this movie."

Hit with what?

If I were Boehner I'd seriously think about bundling the current bill with the proposed budget for the year begining Sept 1. Obama should have forwarded his 9/1 budget to the House back in Feb, that ball's in their court now too.

Just blow this current issue right out of the water with a newer bigger bill cutting even more.

Fern
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
Hit with what?

If I were Boehner I'd seriously think about bundling the current bill with the proposed budget for the year begining Sept 1. Obama should have forwarded his 9/1 budget to the House back in Feb, that ball's in their court now too.

Just blow this current issue right out of the water with a newer bigger bill cutting even more.

Fern

And if Obama vetoes it, then what? Shutdown the government?
 

manimal

Lifer
Mar 30, 2007
13,560
8
0
I think if a bill reached Obama's desk by tomorrow night he would sign in, no question in my mind.

If a clean bill was passed with the 34 billion in cuts with no writers by the senate he has already stated it would get signed...


Obama and the senate has to protect planned parenthood since the middle AND base would throw a tea party style hissifit-warranted IMHO-



The public remembered eye of newt grandstanding talking about shutting it down long after the Clinton election.. CNN and the other news stations at the time replayed those scenes OVER AND OVER for months....have you seen pence and the tea party caucus chanting?

Those scenes are priceless....


Lastly Obama will be seen in a very moderate light since he can honestly say he ceded ALL of their initial requests and made a very concerted effort to compromise....the moving goal post makes the republicans look very bad...
 

Modelworks

Lifer
Feb 22, 2007
16,240
7
76
It is going to be a very bad week next week if they shut down. I live near a lot of large military bases and the marines here are more than pissed off at the idea that they will not get paid but congress will. One guy said the idea that his wife and kids would not be able to buy groceries or pay bills while politicians eat prime rib was enough to make a marine want to start shooting. I'm sure he was joking or at least I hope he was.
 

manimal

Lifer
Mar 30, 2007
13,560
8
0
It is going to be a very bad week next week if they shut down. I live near a lot of large military bases and the marines here are more than pissed off at the idea that they will not get paid but congress will. One guy said the idea that his wife and kids would not be able to buy groceries or pay bills while politicians eat prime rib was enough to make a marine want to start shooting. I'm sure he was joking or at least I hope he was.

the inevitable TV interviews of the affected will add to the outrage...



One big problem here in Boner.....he looks like a good fall guy...
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
The irony is delicious. Tea Partiers and Birthers hold the Repub's fate in the next election in ways they can't even comprehend...

Reminds me of the scene in Blazing Saddles where the black sheriff holds a gun to his own head... It worked in the movie, so let's see how it works in real life.
 

wuliheron

Diamond Member
Feb 8, 2011
3,536
0
0
The irony is delicious. Tea Partiers and Birthers hold the Repub's fate in the next election in ways they can't even comprehend...

Reminds me of the scene in Blazing Saddles where the black sheriff holds a gun to his own head... It worked in the movie, so let's see how it works in real life.


With any luck the gun will go off accidentally.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,195
126
I think if a bill reached Obama's desk by tomorrow night he would sign in, no question in my mind.

I was talking about the big cuts GOP would put in 2012 bill, not the 2011 budget. On 2011, yeah, if they sent him a clean bill $34B, no riders, he would sign it. Of course then GOP will have some explaining to do to the tea-partiers and pro-lifers. Also, it would show weakness for 2012 budget. If GOP is not willing to force and stick through a shutdown now, they don't have much leverage for the 2012 budget either.
 

etrigan420

Golden Member
Oct 30, 2007
1,723
1
71
Boehner has a problem.
...
Irresistable force say "hello" to immovable object.

Fern

Yup.

Him being "Old Guard", I would imagine he's almost giddy with the proposed $30B+ in cuts, as he can't remember a time when the Dem's have conceded as much, only to be sent back with a "nope" from the Tea Party contingent.

I see one of 2 scenarios:

1. Obama (and by extension, the Democrats) caves.

2. Boehner gets to the point where he realizes that what's on the table is as good as it could possibly get and rally's the base Repubs to go with it.

I *really* don't see the Tea Party caving on this.

What irks me is that this is all over *discretionary spending*!!! GRRRRRR!

It's like a bad YouTube loop of the Allen Iverson "practice" news conference...

Meanwhile you have hard working (some times), tax paying (as far as the government knows) government workers and military folk stuck in the middle.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
For anybody ho missed it, Repubs speak with forked tongue wrt fiscal responsibility. They insisted on extending ~$70B/yr in what were supposedly temporary tax breaks to the top 2%, and now want to make up half the difference taking it out of the hides of everybody else.

And their base laps it up the way a dog laps up antifreeze...
 

manimal

Lifer
Mar 30, 2007
13,560
8
0
For anybody ho missed it, Repubs speak with forked tongue wrt fiscal responsibility. They insisted on extending ~$70B/yr in what were supposedly temporary tax breaks to the top 2%, and now want to make up half the difference taking it out of the hides of everybody else.

And their base laps it up the way a dog laps up antifreeze...

that 70 Billion saved Millions of small business jobs from being outsourced and saved the economy from looking like Cleveland in the late 70s....



besides poor people have it so good in this country, why would they need prenatal care or milk or food for their young children...food and prosperity trickles down !
 

Xellos2099

Platinum Member
Mar 8, 2005
2,277
13
81
If a clean bill was passed with the 34 billion in cuts with no writers by the senate he has already stated it would get signed...


Obama and the senate has to protect planned parenthood since the middle AND base would throw a tea party style hissifit-warranted IMHO-



The public remembered eye of newt grandstanding talking about shutting it down long after the Clinton election.. CNN and the other news stations at the time replayed those scenes OVER AND OVER for months....have you seen pence and the tea party caucus chanting?

Those scenes are priceless....


Lastly Obama will be seen in a very moderate light since he can honestly say he ceded ALL of their initial requests and made a very concerted effort to compromise....the moving goal post makes the republicans look very bad...

What is with the obsession with planned parenthood? Just annul the damn thing, it is doing NOTHING but waste money. Face it.... people will have sex no matter of what planned parenthood say....

I guess i am twisted in term of political view, I am all for abortion but I also hate the so call planned parenthood. Guess I am neither a democrat or republican.
 
Last edited:

Patranus

Diamond Member
Apr 15, 2007
9,280
0
0
What is with the obsession with planned parenthood? Just annul the damn thing, it is doing NOTHING but waste money. Face it.... people will have sex no matter of what planned parenthood say....

You are right, what is the obsession by the left to fund planned parenthood with federal money?

If it is such a good service, states and individuals can contribute monies to fund its operation.
 

zsdersw

Lifer
Oct 29, 2003
10,560
2
0
Though I don't think a shut down would be the worse thing in the world, it really isn't worth 30 billion in cuts.

I would suggest the republicans take the 30 billion and at the same time suggest to the democrats to offer more cuts to avert a shutdown.

If the shutdown was over something more meaningful I would support it but it really isn't worth 1% of the budget. Just make a deal already, someone, for gods sake. Lets just end this charade.

Aw, come on now.. surely you knew that's really what this is all about: theater.
 

Vette73

Lifer
Jul 5, 2000
21,503
8
0
that 70 Billion saved Millions of small business jobs from being outsourced and saved the economy from looking like Cleveland in the late 70s....



besides poor people have it so good in this country, why would they need prenatal care or milk or food for their young children...food and prosperity trickles down !


BS. That line was debunked a long time ago. Try to keep up.
 
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