Only 31% of Americans want an EV or PHEV. What about you?

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Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
20,614
5,308
136
I haven't actually measured my AC current draw, but it is on a 60-amp circuit. In August it'll easily run over 6 hours a day.

Obviously the grid will have to be improved to accommodate EV demand, especially for large Level 3 demand, but I think it's a bad faith argument when no one says anything about the grid when people are adding central air or building a new neighborhood. Capacity will grow with demand, just like it has for the last 120 years.
I think the issue is more about production, unless that falls under the heading of "the grid". California is into renewables, that's a good thing, but renewables are intermittent, we need storage.
 

Kaido

Elite Member & Kitchen Overlord
Feb 14, 2004
48,516
5,340
136
My current take:

1. I want a 500-mile EV. The Cybertruck gets pretty close at 470 advertised miles with the extra battery. The Lucid Air is advertised at 516 miles of range, but gets 438 in the real world, which is still pretty good.

2. I just got my invitation for the Cybertruck. Right now, only the Founder's Edition is available. The AWD 340-mile range version is $99k & the Cyberbeast is $120k, plus another $16k for the add-on battery pack. 340 advertised miles for $100,000 is not quite what I had in mind when I pre-ordered it lol. Initial range reports are 164 to 204 miles. My current ICE vehicle gets 300 to 400 miles of range & fills up in under 3 minutes from empty (timed it!).

3. I'm not interested in compromises or extremely high price tags. I don't want to play the range anxiety game. EV's aren't where I want them to be quite yet, maybe in a few years...
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,366
7,016
136
The cyber truck seems riddles with lies. Sorry, I meant marketing speak

Why doesn't that surprise me?

100% when I buy my next car it will be a hybrid and most likely a Toyota.

Me too but just getting a pure EV is a disaster in the northern climate.. have to be realistic.. need a car not a brick. Hybrid is the best way to go like you said!

So I'm still going to wait till Toyota or Ford does Plug in Hybrid Sequoia or Expeditions as I don't want to get a massive bill for a dead battery due to a blizzard.

At least with a plug in hybrid.. I could just set it to charge like a battery tender when we get the occasional blizzard and massive temp drops while still enjoying the hybrid during other normal times.
 
Dec 10, 2005
24,363
7,237
136
Me too but just getting a pure EV is a disaster in the northern climate.. have to be realistic.. need a car not a brick. Hybrid is the best way to go like you said!
It's hardly a disaster - it is really just dependent on your personal driving needs, your parking situation, and your general access to vehicles.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,720
34,595
136
More than range anxiety is the battery replacement anxiety for used buyers.

The battery warranty in the BEV I bought used two years ago doesn't expire until 2027. I'm not particularly concerned about pack degradation and if it happens too much they'll swap it.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,791
10,314
136
More than range anxiety is the battery replacement anxiety for used buyers.
Batteries are warranted for 8 years. Some manufacturer's warranties on combustion engines only last 3.

And of course, any combustion engines well be a gamble on the used market too. I would argue moreso - way more moving parts
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
No one talks about the local grid when installing AC or an electric oven, why the concern over it for an EV? My AC uses far more electric than my Bolt and at a higher current draw.

I'm sure they'll be able to upgrade the grid as needed, such as local subdivisions specifically that might be at capacity and tackle them all one by one. The grid as a whole is probably fine it's just that some parts may not be. Not a huge deal.

My only concern is if they do this quickly they will end up jacking up our bills to compensate for it as they will want to pass on the costs to the consumer. Chances are that will mean increasing the delivery charge and the usage rates on top of it.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
Batteries are warranted for 8 years. Some manufacturer's warranties on combustion engines only last 3.

And of course, any combustion engines well be a gamble on the used market too. I would argue moreso - way more moving parts

8 years is not a very long time for something that costs so much though. If buying used that warranty will no longer apply. Ice cars don't cost 10's of thousands to repair, so while it is a gamble it's not as big of a gamble as an EV where you can end up with a 30k+ battery replacement cost, since nobody wants to work on them at a cell level. The cells themselves rarely fail but anything inside can, such as a seal or whatever. with a gas engine they'll fix the engine instead of replacing it.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,822
10,229
136
I'm sure they'll be able to upgrade the grid as needed, such as local subdivisions specifically that might be at capacity and tackle them all one by one. The grid as a whole is probably fine it's just that some parts may not be. Not a huge deal.

My only concern is if they do this quickly they will end up jacking up our bills to compensate for it as they will want to pass on the costs to the consumer. Chances are that will mean increasing the delivery charge and the usage rates on top of it.
Yeah, it'll be like any other time they add demand to the grid. It'll happen gradually enough the grid will be able to keep up (assuming NIMBYs don't stop the upgrades).
 

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,475
1,669
136
8 years is not a very long time for something that costs so much though. If buying used that warranty will no longer apply. Ice cars don't cost 10's of thousands to repair, so while it is a gamble it's not as big of a gamble as an EV where you can end up with a 30k+ battery replacement cost, since nobody wants to work on them at a cell level. The cells themselves rarely fail but anything inside can, such as a seal or whatever. with a gas engine they'll fix the engine instead of replacing it.

EV battery warranties are in general transferable to a new owner if the battery is still within the warranty period.

FYI - This is the cost to replace a battery in a M3 LR, around $16.5k. Not sure how somebody came up with a $30k+ battery replacement. $16.5k is still expensive but it isn't $30K+ expensive.


 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
If buying used it would not be within that period though unless the car is less than 8 years old when bought. Or does it reset when there is a new owner?

16k is a lot of money to be throwing at a car repair. That's more than I've ever paid for a car entirely. I tend to buy in the 10 year old range. Anything newer is still very expensive. The cost to maintain such a car is in the orders of a few thousand a year... including gas and oil changes.
 
Reactions: highland145

Brovane

Diamond Member
Dec 18, 2001
5,475
1,669
136
If buying used it would not be within that period though unless the car is less than 8 years old when bought. Or does it reset when there is a new owner?

16k is a lot of money to be throwing at a car repair. That's more than I've ever paid for a car entirely. I tend to buy in the 10 year old range. Anything newer is still very expensive. The cost to maintain such a car is in the orders of a few thousand a year... including gas and oil changes.

If the car is less than 8-years the battery is warranty transferable. If it isn't then there is no battery warranty.

Yes 16k is a lot of money to put into a 8+ year old used car but it isn't $30k+.
 

Fenixgoon

Lifer
Jun 30, 2003
31,791
10,314
136
If buying used it would not be within that period though unless the car is less than 8 years old when bought. Or does it reset when there is a new owner?

16k is a lot of money to be throwing at a car repair. That's more than I've ever paid for a car entirely. I tend to buy in the 10 year old range. Anything newer is still very expensive. The cost to maintain such a car is in the orders of a few thousand a year... including gas and oil changes.
any new car should require essentially 0 extra maintenance. modern manufacturing quality is leagues ahead of what car manufacturing used to be.


i've literally done nothing but basic maintenance on my current (2017) and previous (2010) cars - oil/filter, spark plugs, air filter.

the transmission was about to blow on my 2010 genesis coupe, but i also non-competitively raced it (autocross), so that's not entirely surprising either. had i driven it purely as a commuter, i have no doubt it would have been fine.

gas and oil changes will exist whether you buy a used or new combustion vehicle. but they will be non-existient for EVs.
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,871
12,349
126
www.anyf.ca
gas and oil changes will exist whether you buy a used or new combustion vehicle. but they will be non-existient for EVs.

That is still very minimal compared to the upfront cost of an EV, and potentially having to change the battery at some point when warranty is out. With a gas car I will never have to worry about any repair ending up costing 16k or more. And that's on the low end, I have seen some invoices that are much higher.

If they can drop the prices, and make the battery packs repairable at a more reasonable price then it might make more sense.
 

Viper GTS

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
38,107
433
136
Here’s the thing you are missing - That invoice is roughly the equivalent of putting a new crate motor in at a dealer. It’s the absolute most expensive way to fix the problem.

The vast majority of EVs sold in the US are still under their original powertrain warranty due to the federally mandated warranty duration. As in-use vehicles age out of this warranty in volume the aftermarket will fill the void just like they do today on ICE vehicles. There’s little money to be made right now in this space, and the place where there is demand already has aftermarket (look at the original Leaf as an example of this).

Almost nobody puts a new motor or transmission into a 100k mile daily driver vehicle, and almost nobody will buy a new battery at a dealer for an equivalent EV. These catastrophic failures are rare in modern ICE vehicles, and are also rare in EVs.

Just like in ICE vehicles an EV that suffers a catastrophically expensive failure will still have value (and realistically, the battery is the only such repair on an EV).

In short, owning used vehicles is a gamble, it always has been. EVs will be no different.

Viper GTS
 

Indus

Lifer
May 11, 2002
10,366
7,016
136
EV battery warranties are in general transferable to a new owner if the battery is still within the warranty period.

FYI - This is the cost to replace a battery in a M3 LR, around $16.5k. Not sure how somebody came up with a $30k+ battery replacement. $16.5k is still expensive but it isn't $30K+ expensive.


View attachment 92661

I think we have to be honest with ourselves..

EV's will be very successful with first time buyers who can get the most out of their purchase and especially with people who don't like to maintain their vehicles!

But just like German/ European cars which do amazingly well for 100k miles and then start breaking all the time and cost more in repairs than the actual cost of the purchase.. EV's will likely head in that direction.


The only solution will be if EV batteries become easily interchangeable by the owners themselves and it's as easy as replacing ICE car batteries x5. (basically like changing RAM)

That'll sell!
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,720
34,595
136
The only solution will be if EV batteries become easily interchangeable by the owners themselves and it's as easy as replacing ICE car batteries x5. (basically like changing RAM)

That'll sell!


I don't really want to mess with the quite heavy high voltage pack myself. If I could have it pulled by a shop and get the cells replaced with newer higher energy density ones in a few years at a reasonable cost I'd consider it.
 

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,822
10,229
136
If buying used it would not be within that period though unless the car is less than 8 years old when bought. Or does it reset when there is a new owner?

16k is a lot of money to be throwing at a car repair. That's more than I've ever paid for a car entirely. I tend to buy in the 10 year old range. Anything newer is still very expensive. The cost to maintain such a car is in the orders of a few thousand a year... including gas and oil changes.

A couple of things. First, there currently is no demand for third party replacement batteries, once the 2023 MY starts running out their warranties there will almost definitely be aftermarket solutions to help bring the price down. Also you can pretty easily check a battery for degradation, where it's very hard to know the internal condition of an engine or transmission.

Modern transmissions also cost nearly 10k installed from a dealer.

That is still very minimal compared to the upfront cost of an EV, and potentially having to change the battery at some point when warranty is out. With a gas car I will never have to worry about any repair ending up costing 16k or more. And that's on the low end, I have seen some invoices that are much higher.

If they can drop the prices, and make the battery packs repairable at a more reasonable price then it might make more sense.
This is most likely coming, but I understand being nervous about it until it does come.
 
Reactions: Ken g6 and Brovane

Zorba

Lifer
Oct 22, 1999
14,822
10,229
136
I think we have to be honest with ourselves..

EV's will be very successful with first time buyers who can get the most out of their purchase and especially with people who don't like to maintain their vehicles!

But just like German/ European cars which do amazingly well for 100k miles and then start breaking all the time and cost more in repairs than the actual cost of the purchase.. EV's will likely head in that direction.


The only solution will be if EV batteries become easily interchangeable by the owners themselves and it's as easy as replacing ICE car batteries x5. (basically like changing RAM)

That'll sell!
Why does it need to be easier to swap than a transmission or engine? Great if it was, but why hold EV to some standard that no ICE could meet?
 

Viper GTS

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
38,107
433
136
Not to mention that user serviceability will dramatically increase pack size and weight per kwh. All the casing, interfacing, additional cooling hardware, etc that would be needed to change from a monolithic traction battery to something that could be swapped by one person (think sub 50 lb chunks) would make the whole thing impossibly complex, expensive, and almost certainly less reliable.

This will never be a reality in anything road legal, it’s appropriate for things like riding lawn mowers and quads.

Viper GTS
 
Reactions: Zorba
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