Only people with an IQ of 115 or higher can get this right

[Carson Dyle]

If the ball that you taken -> then goto B.
You took a ball -> already at B.

Theres a big difference in wording.

In the OP, it was stated the ball you took was gold.... so your already at B.
The original paradox eq, says if the ball you took was gold, then... which means you were at A and if you finish req, then goto B.

That is the confusion.

It DOESN'T matter. There is no confusion about the original state of the system and how you got there. There's exactly one step in the process. How can there be any confusion?

 

[paperfist]

Makes no difference. It's worded just fine. It's not misleading and it's not ambiguous.

"You take a gold ball from a box. What is the probability that the next ball will be gold?"

is exactly the same as

"If the ball that you've taken is gold, what is the probability that the next ball will be gold?"

 

[Hitman928]

Makes no difference. It's worded just fine. It's not misleading and it's not ambiguous.

"You take a gold ball from a box. What is the probability that the next ball will be gold?"

is exactly the same as

"If the ball that you've taken is gold, what is the probability that the next ball will be gold?"

snip

If you include the important words from the question, he is correct.

"You randomly choose a ball from the box, the ball is gold. What is the probability that the next ball will be gold?"

is exactly the same as

"You randomly choose a ball from the box, If the ball is gold, what is the probability that the next ball will be gold?"

 

[eton975]

I think a lot of people here do not realise that while you are indeed drawing the 2nd ball from the same box as the first (gold) one...

It is more likely (2/3) that the (gold) ball you chose first was in the first box, and hence there is a 2/3 chance you 'chose the first box'.

Which corresponds directly to a 2/3 chance of drawing a 2nd gold ball.

 

[teejee]

I think a lot of people here do not realise that while you are indeed drawing the 2nd ball from the same box as the first (gold) one...

It is more likely (2/3) that the (gold) ball you chose first was in the first box, and hence there is a 2/3 chance you 'chose the first box'.

Which corresponds directly to a 2/3 chance of drawing a 2nd gold ball.

Well, I think there are just a few people who doesn't realize the fact yet (2/3 is a fact), but those people are really stuborn instead... There seems to be a few flat earth prospects in this thread

 

[SearchMaster]

I think a lot of people here do not realise that while you are indeed drawing the 2nd ball from the same box as the first (gold) one...

It is more likely (2/3) that the (gold) ball you chose first was in the first box, and hence there is a 2/3 chance you 'chose the first box'.

Which corresponds directly to a 2/3 chance of drawing a 2nd gold ball.

Thanks - I haven't read every single comment in the thread but this is the clearest explanation of the answer I've seen.

 

[Cozarkian]

I think a lot of people here do not realise that while you are indeed drawing the 2nd ball from the same box as the first (gold) one...

It is more likely (2/3) that the (gold) ball you chose first was in the first box, and hence there is a 2/3 chance you 'chose the first box'.

Which corresponds directly to a 2/3 chance of drawing a 2nd gold ball.

That's mostly new people joining who answer before reading the thread. The group that is keeping this thread strong are those arguing the question says this:

Pick a box with a gold ball in it. Now pick a gold ball from that box. What are the odds the other ball in that box is gold?

Their rationale is that the question doesn't say if and that negates the condition that the a choice was random.

The error those people are making is one of reading comprehension, not math.

 

[Not So Mild]

When I first read this, I was confident the answer was 50%. I wanted to comment my opinions, but since we were on page 8 and growing fast, I figured I'd keep to myself and all the idiots who thought it was 66% could just continue living in a fantasy.

But I've been thinking about this... All. Week. Long.

I've been dreaming of gold and silver balls. Eating dinner I'd grab one meatball and think "what's the chance this next meatball is really beef?" (spoiler: they are all beef). I'd pull socks out of my drawer and wonder the probability of pulling out a matching sock.

This morning, as I'm sitting at work, trying to figure out an issue with one of our healthcare programs, it all became clear, like the matrix unfolding: it's 66%.

EDIT: The crazy thing is that now I don't even know why I thought at one point it was 50%. Makes no sense to me at all. I wonder how I'll think about this tomorrow.

 

[Hitman928]

When I first read this, I was confident the answer was 50%. I wanted to comment my opinions, but since we were on page 8 and growing fast, I figured I'd keep to myself and all the idiots who thought it was 66% could just continue living in a fantasy.

But I've been thinking about this... All. Week. Long.

I've been dreaming of gold and silver balls. Eating dinner I'd grab one meatball and think "what's the chance this next meatball is really beef?" (spoiler: they are all beef). I'd pull socks out of my drawer and wonder the probability of pulling out a matching sock.

This morning, as I'm sitting at work, trying to figure out an issue with one of our healthcare programs, it all became clear, like the matrix unfolding: it's 66%.

EDIT: The crazy thing is that now I don't even know why I thought at one point it was 50%. Makes no sense to me at all. I wonder how I'll think about this tomorrow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyrYgCvxBUg&feature=youtu.be&t=44

 

[Humpy]

"what's the chance this next meatball is really beef?" (spoiler: they are all beef).

All of the meatballs are beef or each meatball is all beef?

 

[Not So Mild]

All of the meatballs are beef or each meatball is all beef?

2/3

 

[paperfist]

Well, I think there are just a few people who doesn't realize the fact yet (2/3 is a fact), but those people are really stuborn instead... There seems to be a few flat earth prospects in this thread

Are you trying to imply that the world is round and spins on a axis?

How would trees get enough light to grow? Why would people use solar panels?

 

[JujuFish]

All of the meatballs are beef or each meatball is all beef?

Yes.

 

[IronWing]

You have four sheets of paper, labeled A-D. They are in random order. What is the greatest possible number of moves needed to place them in alphabetical order?

 

[snoopy7548]

You have four sheets of paper, labeled A-D. They are in random order. What is the greatest possible number of moves needed to place them in alphabetical order?

Infinity.

 

[mindless1]

It's sad to me that this very simple puzzle needed this much conversation.

 

[mindless1]

Well, I think there are just a few people who doesn't realize the fact yet (2/3 is a fact), but those people are really stuborn instead... There seems to be a few flat earth prospects in this thread

You might be retarded. Anyone who thinks 2/3 is a "fact", doesn't know their head from their arse, let alone what "fact" means.

Do I need to hold your hand like you are a little ignorant baby?

There is no 2/3, once you pick one then there is only 1/2 remaining. You can't count the one you already picked, because it's then off the table. Apparently math, common sense, intelligence, etc is not your forte.

 

[eton975]

You might be retarded. Anyone who thinks 2/3 is a "fact", doesn't know their head from their arse, let alone what "fact" means.

Do I need to hold your hand like you are a little ignorant baby?

There is no 2/3, once you pick one then there is only 1/2 remaining. You can't count the one you already picked, because it's then off the table. Apparently math, common sense, intelligence, etc is not your forte.

Only 1 of two boxes remains. However, it's more likely that the first golden ball you chose was in the first box.

While you did choose a box at random, any time you chose Box 2 but pulled silver the first try, you lost the first go. So only half the time you pulled the first ball in Box 2, was it gold. The other time, your pull was discarded just like if you pulled from Box 3.

Choosing a random box does not mean that you are equally likely to pull your first gold ball from either one.

Any time you pulled something in Box 1, you survived to the second round. While there are only two boxes, and you picked one, it is twice as likely you pulled the first box than the second (and lived to tell the tale).

You are choosing a ball in a box: the fact that you have a gold ball at all makes it more likely you picked it from Box 1. After all, you never go wrong if you randomly chose a ball from box 1 in the first round. If you chose a ball from Box 2 initially, you had a 50% chance of getting gold, and are guaranteed to fail in the second round if you got a gold ball from it initially.

 

[eton975]

As has been said many times on this thread, just because there are two possibilities doesn't necessarily mean that both are equally likely. I either wake up a billionaire tomorrow or I don't, but does anyone here think that it's a 50-50 chance between the two?

 

[Schfifty Five]

Why did this thread die? It brought a lot of entertainment during the day.

 

[BudAshes]

You might be retarded. Anyone who thinks 2/3 is a "fact", doesn't know their head from their arse, let alone what "fact" means.

Do I need to hold your hand like you are a little ignorant baby?

There is no 2/3, once you pick one then there is only 1/2 remaining. You can't count the one you already picked, because it's then off the table. Apparently math, common sense, intelligence, etc is not your forte.

You tell 'em cowboy.

 

[Tweak155]

Why did this thread die? It brought a lot of entertainment during the day.

Probably because unlike a religion thread where there is no absolute proof, when there is absolute proof and people still don't get it, there isn't much else to say.

At least with religion you can put another spin on it and give it another go, but when people argue demonstrable math, there isn't much more (any more?) ignorance to expose.

 

[nakedfrog]

You have four sheets of paper, labeled A-D. They are in random order. What is the greatest possible number of moves needed to place them in alphabetical order?

I never learned to read

 

[IronWing]

I never learned to read

Bummer. I can send you a brochure if you'd like.

 

[IronWing]

Off topic:

I never understood the function of this sign.

If you can't read, what do you need with a library?