Pakistan is in danger of collapse within months

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
Link 1

Link 2

Much has been posted already, but these two sources indicate a rapidly deteriorating situation in Pakistan. The first warns of a coming collapse of Pakistan within months.

The second link reports Indian Army movements into Kashmir and warns of a possible cross border incursion into Pakistan.

Scroll down to the April 11 update for details in the second link.

In any case, Pakistan is in grave danger from internal elements pulling it apart. I cannot say if Pakistan will in fact collapse over the next few months, but do think that this summers coming offensive by the Taliban, and how Pakistan handles, it will be key to the countries survival.

All bets are off if India does invade even on a temporary basis or if Peshwar falls to the Taliban.

 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,227
36
91
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Isn't think like "New video from Bin Laden says major attack planned"?

Pakistan is always in danger of collapse, or at least has been for a while now.
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....
I hope so, too. If we're able to mention it here I can safely assume somebody who is privy to real intel has thought about it.

Anyway, I am reading the first article. Not really pleasant stuff.
 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Isn't think like "New video from Bin Laden says major attack planned"?

Pakistan is always in danger of collapse, or at least has been for a while now.
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....
I hope so, too. If we're able to mention it here I can safely assume somebody who is privy to real intel has thought about it.

Anyway, I am reading the first article. Not really pleasant stuff.

Pakistan has certainly seen its share of problems, but it seems to me the current problems are a threat to the core of the state itself. I don;t see either the civilian government or the military able to effectively counteract the Taliban/AQ threat. The willingness to cede districts and provinces to the Taliban in the hopes of some "peace" indicate a weakness that will only be exploited by the radical Islamic elements within Pakistan.
 

Kadarin

Lifer
Nov 23, 2001
44,303
15
81
Originally posted by: dphantom
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Isn't think like "New video from Bin Laden says major attack planned"?

Pakistan is always in danger of collapse, or at least has been for a while now.
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....
I hope so, too. If we're able to mention it here I can safely assume somebody who is privy to real intel has thought about it.

Anyway, I am reading the first article. Not really pleasant stuff.

Pakistan has certainly seen its share of problems, but it seems to me the current problems are a threat to the core of the state itself. I don;t see either the civilian government or the military able to effectively counteract the Taliban/AQ threat. The willingness to cede districts and provinces to the Taliban in the hopes of some "peace" indicate a weakness that will only be exploited by the radical Islamic elements within Pakistan.

As a history lesson, it's worth noting that the policy of appeasement did not work so well for the allies prior to WWII.
 

IamDavid

Diamond Member
Sep 13, 2000
5,888
10
81
So where are all the Pervez Musharraf haters now? Everyone wanted him gone or dead. Now looking back he was the only person who could do what he did.
 

5150Joker

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2002
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www.techinferno.com
So called experts have been predicting the demise of Pakistan since it's inception. The Taliban are not interested in taking over the entire country nor are they capable of doing it. If the Pakistani military establishment felt truly threatened, they'd just go to the northwest and flatten it. Fact of the matter is, this is likely just another way for Pakistan's corrupt government and military to extract aid money out of the West. Threaten the West with the imminent demise of the government and the possibility of nukes and major weaponry in terrorists hands = billions in aid.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
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Originally posted by: OCguy
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....

That's going to be far far harder than you imagine. Pakistan will assume that there will be a grab for their nukes, and they are going to move them around at the last possible minute making any current intel useless. It's going to be a bitch to find them.
 

tvarad

Golden Member
Jun 25, 2001
1,130
0
0
Originally posted by: IamDavid
So where are all the Pervez Musharraf haters now? Everyone wanted him gone or dead. Now looking back he was the only person who could do what he did.

Ah yes, Prophet Musharaff. The p*mp was playing both sides of the Afghan divide, encouraging the Taliban to continue their murderous ways while playing the great Pakistan begging game i Washington with finesse. And the idiots in Washington kept winking at this charade because they were too busy fighting the Iraq fire.
 

FaaR

Golden Member
Dec 28, 2007
1,056
412
136
Originally posted by: Hayabusa Riderthey are going to move them around at the last possible minute making any current intel useless. It's going to be a bitch to find them.
I believe that's what you have spy satellites for... The nukes would be travelling on trucks or similar, which could be tracked.

Anyway, even if you're right, if the nukes are on the move and more or less unfindable by US special forces, it would mean they would be "unfindable" by any islamic crazies as well. So...mission accomplished, from a certain point of view anyway.

What would be far more unfortunate than nukes on the move in trucks or whatnot, would be nukes on the move in ballistic orbits, launched towards India out of spite or retaliation.

Regardless if the Pakistani gov't falls, one would assume the army would defend their nukes against any islamic crazies trying to seize them with GREAT vigor. How well-known is it where the missile silos are located anyway?

As for any new Bin Laden videos - what will this be, the eleventh Bin Laden we've seen so far since the guy went AWOL back in oh-three? Face it people, he's not videotaping, he's...he's past on. This Laden is no more. He has ceased to be, he has expired and gone to meet his maker. He is a stiff. Bereft of life he rests in peace, if you hadn't kept him in the spotlight he'd be pushing up the daisies. He's off the boil. He's curled up his tootsies, he's shuffled off this mortal coil. He's run down the curtain to join the bleeding choir invisible! He fking snuffed it. Vis-a-vis the metabolic processes he's had his lot. All statements to the effect that this Laden is still a going concern are from now on inoperative. This is an Ex-Laden!

 

dphantom

Diamond Member
Jan 14, 2005
4,763
327
126
Originally posted by: FaaR
Originally posted by: Hayabusa Riderthey are going to move them around at the last possible minute making any current intel useless. It's going to be a bitch to find them.
I believe that's what you have spy satellites for... The nukes would be travelling on trucks or similar, which could be tracked.



It's not as easy as you make it out to be to find and track truck based mobile missiles or especially just the warheads. We had a b!tch of a time finding the USSR mobile ICBM's and could not find Iraqi SCUDS in the first Gulf War with any certainty.

I would suspect there is some tracking protocol in place, but once anything is on the move, it becomes very difficult to track.
 

Aimster

Lifer
Jan 5, 2003
16,129
2
0
Originally posted by: OCguy
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....

Yes like we know where they are.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
46,880
34,834
136
If Pakistan does collapse I'd definitely endorse any and all military actions required to secure or destroy the Pakistani nuclear arsenal in it's entirety.

Given the US's ties to the country I'm sure there are a few people we could entice into revealing their locations.
 

tvarad

Golden Member
Jun 25, 2001
1,130
0
0
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: OCguy
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....

Yes like we know where they are.

At the end of the day, the Pakistanis are rank cowards. From the days of Alexander, every two-bit invader that set sights on India used them as doormats. Nothing has changed in the last few decades when they've either retreated or surrendered outright in every fight that, btw, was started by them.

It took one phone call from Colin Powell for them to do a 180 degree turn and throw the Taliban under the bus. If the West took the war on terror seriously and placed the Pakistani military's nuclear options on the table in the worst-case scenario, they will do the same to their nukes.
 

5150Joker

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2002
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0
71
www.techinferno.com
Originally posted by: tvarad
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: OCguy
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....

Yes like we know where they are.

At the end of the day, the Pakistanis are rank cowards. From the days of Alexander, every two-bit invader that set sights on India used them as doormats. Nothing has changed in the last few decades when they've either retreated or surrendered outright in every fight that, btw, was started by them.

It took one phone call from Colin Powell for them to do a 180 degree turn and throw the Taliban under the bus. If the West took the war on terror seriously and placed the Pakistani military's nuclear options on the table in the worst-case scenario, they will do the same to their nukes.


You speak as if Pakistan existed back in the times of Alexander or the Mughals. It was all India (aka your people) that were invaded time and again and made into virtual slaves. You guys recently gained your freedom in the late 1940s so I wouldn't be so smug if I were you.
 

Aberforth

Golden Member
Oct 12, 2006
1,707
1
0
Originally posted by: K1052
If Pakistan does collapse I'd definitely endorse any and all military actions required to secure or destroy the Pakistani nuclear arsenal in it's entirety.

Given the US's ties to the country I'm sure there are a few people we could entice into revealing their locations.

lol...when rebels take over- there won't be military action because they have the control of nukes. I think NATO or UN should force nuclear disarmament before anything serious happens to that country.

Edit: I predicted this would happen but everyone in this forum thought it was unlikely. US violated it's own policies, you shouldn't negotiate with terrorists or give them safe haven, you deal with them or get rid of them.
 

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,568
3
0
Originally posted by: FaaR
Originally posted by: Hayabusa Riderthey are going to move them around at the last possible minute making any current intel useless. It's going to be a bitch to find them.
I believe that's what you have spy satellites for... The nukes would be travelling on trucks or similar, which could be tracked.

Anyway, even if you're right, if the nukes are on the move and more or less unfindable by US special forces, it would mean they would be "unfindable" by any islamic crazies as well. So...mission accomplished, from a certain point of view anyway.

What would be far more unfortunate than nukes on the move in trucks or whatnot, would be nukes on the move in ballistic orbits, launched towards India out of spite or retaliation.

Regardless if the Pakistani gov't falls, one would assume the army would defend their nukes against any islamic crazies trying to seize them with GREAT vigor. How well-known is it where the missile silos are located anyway?

As for any new Bin Laden videos - what will this be, the eleventh Bin Laden we've seen so far since the guy went AWOL back in oh-three? Face it people, he's not videotaping, he's...he's past on. This Laden is no more. He has ceased to be, he has expired and gone to meet his maker. He is a stiff. Bereft of life he rests in peace, if you hadn't kept him in the spotlight he'd be pushing up the daisies. He's off the boil. He's curled up his tootsies, he's shuffled off this mortal coil. He's run down the curtain to join the bleeding choir invisible! He fking snuffed it. Vis-a-vis the metabolic processes he's had his lot. All statements to the effect that this Laden is still a going concern are from now on inoperative. This is an Ex-Laden!


If the Pakistani gov falls, it probably means the higher levels of military leadership have also fallen. Besides, you're forgetting that a good bit of the Pakistani military is extremely corrupt. The crazies only have to get their hands on one nuclear warhead to potentially kill millions.
 

rchiu

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2002
3,846
0
0
Originally posted by: 5150Joker
So called experts have been predicting the demise of Pakistan since it's inception. The Taliban are not interested in taking over the entire country nor are they capable of doing it. If the Pakistani military establishment felt truly threatened, they'd just go to the northwest and flatten it. Fact of the matter is, this is likely just another way for Pakistan's corrupt government and military to extract aid money out of the West. Threaten the West with the imminent demise of the government and the possibility of nukes and major weaponry in terrorists hands = billions in aid.

Exactly. Well, almost. The civilian government in Pakistan is weak as hell and they have no contorl over anything. I wouldn't be surprised if the current goverment "collapse" and some other party/politicians take over. In the end, the real power is in Pakistan military, and they have plenty of fire power to deal with Taliban. They just choose not to so they can keep getting money from the west.
 

Hacp

Lifer
Jun 8, 2005
13,923
2
81
Originally posted by: OCguy
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....

You mean the Iranians?

Pakistan's been a disaster ever since Obama took office.
 

irishScott

Lifer
Oct 10, 2006
21,568
3
0
Originally posted by: Hacp
Originally posted by: OCguy
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....

You mean the Iranians?

Pakistan's been a disaster ever since Obama took office.

Obviously it's all Obama's fault. :roll: And do the Iranians even have elite special forces? (at least to most Western countries' standards of "elite")
 

StageLeft

No Lifer
Sep 29, 2000
70,150
5
0
Originally posted by: Hacp
Originally posted by: OCguy
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....

You mean the Iranians?

Pakistan's been a disaster ever since Obama took office.
Pakistan has been a disaster for more than two months.
At the end of the day, the Pakistanis are rank cowards.
Surely any policy should not be based on the assumption that Pakistanis are cowards.
 

tvarad

Golden Member
Jun 25, 2001
1,130
0
0
The fundamental problem with Pakistan is that it is an extremely feudal country. What passes off for democracy is basically a feudal catfight between the Bhutto/Zardari clan and the Punjabis who dominate the army. There has never been a genuine attempt to re-distribute land, wealth and power as has happened in India since independence with the result that the fissures have been growing wider and wider. Genuine grievances have been ruthlessly suppressed with the result that extremism has taken over. The Islamic nutcases were nurtured by the army to further their own ends viz. unsettle India and maintain their influence in Afghanistan and now have turned into a hydra-headed monster that threatens to swallow Pakistan itself.

Where do you start cutting this Gordian knot? It's certainly not through the simplistic notions prevalent in Washington that throwing more money and arms at the problem will make it go away. If history is anything to go by, it will be swallowed by the rapacious army setup that just doesn't want any change to the status-quo which benefits them.

The real solution is to force the feudal elite, whether it is the Zardaris or the Punjabi dominated army, to make meaningful changes in the polity so that genuine democracy can take root. And I certainly don't think the Americans are going to do it any time soon. But the problem has to be faced sooner or later and the way things are going in Pakistan, it will be through some catastrophic event that the world will grow the "b*lls" necessary to tackle the Pakistani problem. I certainly hope that this event does not involve nukes.
 

feralkid

Lifer
Jan 28, 2002
16,577
4,659
136
Originally posted by: OCguy
Hopefully our special forces, along with other elite special forces, are ready to sieze the nukes if this happens.

I believe they are....

I believe you are...talking out of your ass.
 

tvarad

Golden Member
Jun 25, 2001
1,130
0
0
Here's an article that reinforces what I have said in my last post. The current president Zardari is one such wealthy landlords himself. I think the world had better start preparing for a Taliban/Al-Qaeda nexus with nukes, because the Pakistani military establishment is going to get the feet cut from underneath it:

The New York Times (April 16, 2009)

Taliban Exploit Class Rifts to Gain Ground in Pakistan

PESHAWAR, Pakistan ? The Taliban have advanced deeper into Pakistan by engineering a class revolt that exploits profound fissures between a small group of wealthy landlords and their landless tenants, according to government officials and analysts here.

The strategy cleared a path to power for the Taliban in the Swat Valley, where the government allowed Islamic law to be imposed this week, and it carries broad dangers for the rest of Pakistan, particularly the militants? main goal, the populous heartland of Punjab Province.

In Swat, accounts from those who have fled now make clear that the Taliban seized control by pushing out about four dozen landlords who held the most power.

To do so, the militants organized peasants into armed gangs that became their shock troops, the residents, government officials and analysts said.

The approach allowed the Taliban to offer economic spoils to people frustrated with lax and corrupt government even as the militants imposed a strict form of Islam through terror and intimidation.

?This was a bloody revolution in Swat,? said a senior Pakistani official who oversees Swat, speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation by the Taliban. ?I wouldn?t be surprised if it sweeps the established order of Pakistan.?

The Taliban?s ability to exploit class divisions adds a new dimension to the insurgency and is raising alarm about the risks to Pakistan, which remains largely feudal.

Unlike India after independence in 1947, Pakistan maintained a narrow landed upper class that kept its vast holdings while its workers remained subservient, the officials and analysts said. Successive Pakistani governments have since failed to provide land reform and even the most basic forms of education and health care. Avenues to advancement for the vast majority of rural poor do not exist.

Analysts and other government officials warn that the strategy executed in Swat is easily transferable to Punjab, saying that the province, where militant groups are already showing strength, is ripe for the same social upheavals that have convulsed Swat and the tribal areas.

Mahboob Mahmood, a Pakistani-American lawyer and former classmate of President Obama?s, said, ?The people of Pakistan are psychologically ready for a revolution.?

Sunni militancy is taking advantage of deep class divisions that have long festered in Pakistan, he said. ?The militants, for their part, are promising more than just proscriptions on music and schooling,? he said. ?They are also promising Islamic justice, effective government and economic redistribution.?

The Taliban strategy in Swat, an area of 1.3 million people with fertile orchards, vast plots of timber and valuable emerald mines, unfolded in stages over five years, analysts said.

The momentum of the insurgency built in the past two years, when the Taliban, reinforced by seasoned fighters from the tribal areas with links to Al Qaeda, fought the Pakistani Army to a standstill, said a Pakistani intelligence agent who works in the Swat region.

The insurgents struck at any competing point of power: landlords and elected leaders ? who were usually the same people ? and an underpaid and unmotivated police force, said Khadim Hussain, a linguistics and communications professor at Bahria University in Islamabad, the capital.

At the same time, the Taliban exploited the resentments of the landless tenants, particularly the fact that they had many unresolved cases against their bosses in a slow-moving and corrupt justice system, Mr. Hussain and residents who fled the area said.

Their grievances were stoked by a young militant, Maulana Fazlullah, who set up an FM radio station in 2004 to appeal to the disenfranchised. The broadcasts featured easy-to-understand examples using goats, cows, milk and grass. By 2006, Mr. Fazlullah had formed a ragtag force of landless peasants armed by the Taliban, said Mr. Hussain and former residents of Swat.

At first, the pressure on the landlords was subtle. One landowner was pressed to take his son out of an English-speaking school offensive to the Taliban. Others were forced to make donations to the Taliban.

Then, in late 2007, Shujaat Ali Khan, the richest of the landowners, his brothers and his son, Jamal Nasir, the mayor of Swat, became targets.

After Shujaat Ali Khan, a senior politician in the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, narrowly missed being killed by a roadside bomb, he fled to London. A brother, Fateh Ali Mohammed, a former senator, left, too, and now lives in Islamabad. Mr. Nasir also fled.

Later, the Taliban published a ?most wanted? list of 43 prominent names, said Muhammad Sher Khan, a landlord who is a politician with the Pakistan Peoples Party, and whose name was on the list. All those named were ordered to present themselves to the Taliban courts or risk being killed, he said. ?When you know that they will hang and kill you, how will you dare go back there?? Mr. Khan, hiding in Punjab, said in a telephone interview. ?Being on the list meant ?Don?t come back to Swat.? ?

One of the main enforcers of the new order was Ibn-e-Amin, a Taliban commander from the same area as the landowners, called Matta. The fact that Mr. Amin came from Matta, and knew who was who there, put even more pressure on the landowners, Mr. Hussain said.

According to Pakistani news reports, Mr. Amin was arrested in August 2004 on suspicion of having links to Al Qaeda and was released in November 2006. Another Pakistani intelligence agent said Mr. Amin often visited a madrasa in North Waziristan, the stronghold of Al Qaeda in the tribal areas, where he apparently received guidance.

Each time the landlords fled, their tenants were rewarded. They were encouraged to cut down the orchard trees and sell the wood for their own profit, the former residents said. Or they were told to pay the rent to the Taliban instead of their now absentee bosses.

Two dormant emerald mines have reopened under Taliban control. The militants have announced that they will receive one-third of the revenues.

Since the Taliban fought the military to a truce in Swat in February, the militants have deepened their approach and made clear who is in charge.

When provincial bureaucrats visit Mingora, Swat?s capital, they must now follow the Taliban?s orders and sit on the floor, surrounded by Taliban bearing weapons, and in some cases wearing suicide bomber vests, the senior provincial official said.

In many areas of Swat the Taliban have demanded that each family give up one son for training as a Taliban fighter, said Mohammad Amad, executive director of a nongovernmental group, the Initiative for Development and Empowerment Axis.

A landlord who fled with his family last year said he received a chilling message last week. His tenants called him in Peshawar, the capital of North-West Frontier Province, which includes Swat, to tell him his huge house was being demolished, he said in an interview here.

The most crushing news was about his finances. He had sold his fruit crop in advance, though at a quarter of last year?s price. But even that smaller yield would not be his, his tenants said, relaying the Taliban message. The buyer had been ordered to give the money to the Taliban instead.
 

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
349
126
Originally posted by: tvarad
Here's an article that reinforces what I have said in my last post. The current president Zardari is one such wealthy landlords himself. I think the world had better start preparing for a Taliban/Al-Qaeda nexus with nukes, because the Pakistani military establishment is going to get the feet cut from underneath it:

The New York Times (April 16, 2009)

Taliban Exploit Class Rifts to Gain Ground in Pakistan

PESHAWAR, Pakistan ? The Taliban have advanced deeper into Pakistan by engineering a class revolt that exploits profound fissures between a small group of wealthy landlords and their landless tenants, according to government officials and analysts here.

The right seems to fail to understand one of the side benefits of economic justice, reducing the ability for conflict, the recruiting of the poor in an unjust system.

It was long observed that communism appealed to people who wanted to eat and had little ability to do so because of abusive concentrations of wealth and power.

Competition often brings out good things, and the cold war inspired the US from putting a man on the moon to shifting to stronger support for third-world nations' rights.

Even today, the communist Chinese government has in effect told the people they will be able to receive economic gains in exchange for not demanding political rights.

John Kennedy's words may well apply directly to the situation in Pakistan:

If a free society cannot help the many who are poor,
it cannot save the few who are rich.
John F. Kennedy 1-20-1963

He faced the same sort of thing in Vietnam, where he was unable to get the ruling class to reform and reduce its abuses of the masses, and it fell.

Sadly, the other side had the stronger moral case in an important way - their rejection of foreign occupation and control.

Those who make peaceful revolutions impossible
will make violent revolutions inevitable.
John Kennedy

It's harder and harder for oppressed people to have revolutions, with the advances in military technology. Some day, it'll likely be completely impossible, allowing tyranny.

In the meantime, injustice opens the door for the monsters of the Taliban to have willing followers.

The basic need for social and economic justice hasn't changed. Unfortunately, the tendency for socieites to have ruling elites hasn't changed, either.

If we'd choose policies that support economic and social justice, not only would be be doing the right thing, we'd reduce the risk of revolution.
 
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