Pennsylvania: McCain's Last, Best Hope

[jpeyton]

Is this the Obamercial effect, or something else? Obama gained or held onto leads in almost every national tracker today, especially with Gallup where both models have him gaining commanding leads (+8 traditional, +9 expanded).

There is some tightening on the state level, but not where you expect. Polls from CO, NH, IA, NM, and OH show solid leads. PA has tightened to a high single digit lead (+8), and NC is still close.

The state of the race today is simple: Obama has a hardened firewall to 270, and a lot of gravy states on top of that. The *close* states at this point are ones that nobody thought McCain would be defending in the final few days.

Text

Is Pennsylvania John McCain's last, best hope?

Perhaps it is. But that speaks as much to McCain's problems elsewhere on the map as any success he has had in the Keystone State. Pennsylvania does seem to be narrowing a bit: the Muhlenberg / Morning Call tracker is now down to "only" a 10-point lead for Senator Obama, while a Strategic Vision poll puts the race at O +5. Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year, so our model treats that result as the equivalent of a +7 or a +8. Nevertheless, with little progress being made elsewhere, McCain will take what he can get.

Indeed, unlike other recent days, there is no good news for McCain in the national tracking polls. McCain gained a point in the Rasmussen tracker; the other seven all moved toward Obama, although by mere fractions of a point in the cases of Zogby and IBD/TIPP.

McCain?s most severe problems, however, remain at the state level:

Graph

As we alluded to this morning, the numbers from PPP out of Colorado and New Mexico, which used very large, list-based samples, are awful news for McCain in states where majorities of the electorate have already voted. Contrary to Rick Davis?s assertions, there is absolutely no reason to conclude that McCain is competitive in Iowa, and there is a slew of evidence that Obama is on track to win New Hampshire, even if the UNH Tracking Poll is now coming a bit off its outlier-ish numbers. Ohio is another big problem for McCain. Except for the Strategic Vision poll, everything else we?ve added to the database over the past several days shows Obama with leads ranging from 3 points to 16 (though the latter result, from Ohio University, looks very much like an outlier). In North Carolina, which seemed to be tightening last week, Obama now appears to be holding on to a very small lead, and much of that state has voted too.

So given this morass, Pennsylvania seems to be the one thing that McCain has to hang his hat on. But he remains very unlikely to win it, and even if he does, Obama has any number of firewall states that could preserve a victory for him. McCain?s win percentage is down to 2.8 percent, his lowest number of the year.

 

[Blackjack200]

McCain has to win PA to have any kind of prayer. If the results come in heavy Obama we can all go to bed early.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Blackjack200
McCain has to win PA to have any kind of prayer. If the results come in heavy Obama we can all go to bed early.

I've had PA for Obama since June

More like watch Florida. McCain needs Florida.

Another one to watch is Indiana. If it manages to go blue McCain is done.

 

[Lemon law]

Can we all get a life, an electoral vote in one State ain't worth more than an a electoral vote in another State. Greedy Obama is a gunning for every State, and if the GOP does not prevail in almost every red State GWB carried in 2000 and 2004, why should we be having this discussion about one specific State. To put in a basketball analogy, the big dog will eat. The big dog may not eat it all, all we are doing is talking about
is if Obama will eat it all. But no way or no how will he eat nothing. Bottom line, McCain is toast unless he defends it all.

 

[ProfJohn]

Do the math.

If McCain losses Colorado and Virginia then he HAS to win PA to win the whole thing. Which is why he is spending time and money in the state.

McCain could pull out a victory in VA based on its history as a red state, but Colorado seems to be a lost cause.

 

[senseamp]

Is PA more Republican than CO and VA tho? Seems like he'd be better off fighting for those.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: senseamp
Is PA more Republican than CO and VA tho? Seems like he'd be better off fighting for those.

The problem for McCain is a massive portion of the voters in Colorado already have voted at this point using absentee ballots or the early voting in person option.

The number was officially recorded as 42.9 percent of "active voters" as of Wednesday, but that number has grown in the last couple days and the number does not include mail in ballots which have been sent out but not received and recorded by the election offices yet. (Once the ballot is in the mail it doesn't matter if you later change your mind its counted as marked on the ballot period.)

The existing polling also strongly suggests Obama has a huge lead among the early voters in Colorado, and this is simply a group McCain can do nothing about at this point. (At least with regards to those who have already voted.)
http://coloradoindependent.com...-voters-tied-with-rest

Pennsylvania only allows absentee ballots with a valid reason given, and otherwise lacks any early voting options making turning things around there more viable in general due to this specific detail.

The basic problem with McCain focusing on Virginia is he can win there but still loses if he loses both Pennsylvania and Colorado. If Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa, (rather safe for Obama at this point) Colorado, and New Mexico (rather safe for Obama) Obama has enough electoral votes to win even if he loses Virginia and all the other non-Kerry states. In fact even leaving New Mexico out, still bring Obama up to enough electoral votes for a tie, which realistically means Obama wins when the vote goes to the new US House of Representatives voted in this election.

McCain still is paying some attention to Virginia though, especially because there are scenarios such as Obama winning Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada in which even if McCain pulls off a stunning comeback in Pennsylvania he still loses. (I view such a situation as unlikely, but something that only moves the numbers from current polls in that one state could cause such a situation.)

 

[JJChicken]

Originally posted by: jpeyton
Is this the Obamercial effect, or something else? Obama gained or held onto leads in almost every national tracker today, especially with Gallup where both models have him gaining commanding leads (+8 traditional, +9 expanded).

There is some tightening on the state level, but not where you expect. Polls from CO, NH, IA, NM, and OH show solid leads. PA has tightened to a high single digit lead (+8), and NC is still close.

The state of the race today is simple: Obama has a hardened firewall to 270, and a lot of gravy states on top of that. The *close* states at this point are ones that nobody thought McCain would be defending in the final few days.

Text

Is Pennsylvania John McCain's last, best hope?

Perhaps it is. But that speaks as much to McCain's problems elsewhere on the map as any success he has had in the Keystone State. Pennsylvania does seem to be narrowing a bit: the Muhlenberg / Morning Call tracker is now down to "only" a 10-point lead for Senator Obama, while a Strategic Vision poll puts the race at O +5. Strategic Vision has had a Republican lean and some very erratic polling in Pennsylvania all year, so our model treats that result as the equivalent of a +7 or a +8. Nevertheless, with little progress being made elsewhere, McCain will take what he can get.

Indeed, unlike other recent days, there is no good news for McCain in the national tracking polls. McCain gained a point in the Rasmussen tracker; the other seven all moved toward Obama, although by mere fractions of a point in the cases of Zogby and IBD/TIPP.

McCain?s most severe problems, however, remain at the state level:

Graph

As we alluded to this morning, the numbers from PPP out of Colorado and New Mexico, which used very large, list-based samples, are awful news for McCain in states where majorities of the electorate have already voted. Contrary to Rick Davis?s assertions, there is absolutely no reason to conclude that McCain is competitive in Iowa, and there is a slew of evidence that Obama is on track to win New Hampshire, even if the UNH Tracking Poll is now coming a bit off its outlier-ish numbers. Ohio is another big problem for McCain. Except for the Strategic Vision poll, everything else we?ve added to the database over the past several days shows Obama with leads ranging from 3 points to 16 (though the latter result, from Ohio University, looks very much like an outlier). In North Carolina, which seemed to be tightening last week, Obama now appears to be holding on to a very small lead, and much of that state has voted too.

So given this morass, Pennsylvania seems to be the one thing that McCain has to hang his hat on. But he remains very unlikely to win it, and even if he does, Obama has any number of firewall states that could preserve a victory for him. McCain?s win percentage is down to 2.8 percent, his lowest number of the year.

PA is not at +5-10 state for Obama, the race is close to tied and Axelrod said he's losing sleep over the state. If he can win PA, he WILL win the election because it would indicate that he got over the race barrier/or the barrier wasn't too big to begin with

 

[Lemon law]

I love the smell of GOP desperation in the morning. Tic Tic Tic, in only three days, most of America goes to the polls.

 

[techs]

I believe the Obama camp feels it has done all it can in many of the battleground states that were identified early. The reason Obama is going into some of the states that have recently shifted more towards being competitive is not to actually win them, though of course he hopes to, but to build up a greater percentage of the vote.

I think Obama wants to get over 50 percent of the national vote to legitimize his victory.

 

[T2T III]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I love the smell of GOP desperation in the morning. Tic Tic Tic, in only three days, most of America goes to the polls.

Me too. I've got to thank Governor Bill Richardson yesterday for indicating on on the radio that Obama will only be giving tax breaks to those who make $120K a year, and below. I don't know the specifics as this is all developing. However, this is down from the $150K that Biden was last quoted as. Has the Democratic party ever thought about getting together in a huddle and discussing what they're really all going to say in regards to the tax cuts?

I'm sure over these next few days, a lot of Americans will wake up to the smoke and mirrors that Obama/Biden have been using all along.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: T2T III

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I love the smell of GOP desperation in the morning. Tic Tic Tic, in only three days, most of America goes to the polls.

Me too. I've got to thank Governor Bill Richardson yesterday for indicating on on the radio that Obama will only be giving tax breaks to those who make $120K a year, and below. I don't know the specifics as this is all developing. However, this is down from the $150K that Biden was last quoted as. Has the Democratic party ever thought about getting together in a huddle and discussing what they're really all going to say in regards to the tax cuts?

I'm sure over these next few days, a lot of Americans will wake up to the smoke and mirrors that Obama/Biden have been using all along.

Good, still a whole lot better than the stab in the face your heroes have done to us.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: T2T III

Originally posted by: Lemon law
I love the smell of GOP desperation in the morning. Tic Tic Tic, in only three days, most of America goes to the polls.

Me too. I've got to thank Governor Bill Richardson yesterday for indicating on on the radio that Obama will only be giving tax breaks to those who make $120K a year, and below. I don't know the specifics as this is all developing. However, this is down from the $150K that Biden was last quoted as. Has the Democratic party ever thought about getting together in a huddle and discussing what they're really all going to say in regards to the tax cuts?

I'm sure over these next few days, a lot of Americans will wake up to the smoke and mirrors that Obama/Biden have been using all along.

Don't be so sure. It's been 8 years of your fvcking monkey in office and millions of Americans still deny themselves that truth. Why do you expect that in a few short days they can suddenly become capable of learning?

 

[T2T III]

Originally posted by: Skoorb]

Don't be so sure. It's been 8 years of your fvcking monkey in office and millions of Americans still deny themselves that truth. Why do you expect that in a few short days they can suddenly become capable of learning?

[/quote]

Skoorb, I don't want to attack you, but if you can't vote, why are you so critical of our politics here in the U.S.? I love America. I love my freedom. The only time I've ever felt like someone bent me over the fence was when I was in Canada (many times, I might add). Their tax system (GST + PST) making a combined tax of approximately 15% on purchases seems just plain wrong.

Now, if they could just get rid of the cold and those silly taxes, Canada would be a damn fine place to live.

 

[Moonbeam]

Originally posted by: T2T III

Originally posted by: Skoorb]

Don't be so sure. It's been 8 years of your fvcking monkey in office and millions of Americans still deny themselves that truth. Why do you expect that in a few short days they can suddenly become capable of learning?

Skoorb, I don't want to attack you, but if you can't vote, why are you so critical of our politics here in the U.S.? I love America. I love my freedom. The only time I've ever felt like someone bent me over the fence was when I was in Canada (many times, I might add). Their tax system (GST + PST) making a combined tax of approximately 15% on purchases seems just plain wrong.

Now, if they could just get rid of the cold and those silly taxes, Canada would be a damn fine place to live.[/quote]

You love America and that's the problem. Skoorb didn't grow up being told what loving America means. He wasn't turned in to a brainwashed brain dead freedom spouting patriot who with one hand waves a flag and with the other smears shit all over the rest of the world to fuel his profligate lust for more and more goods to buy, to bring the American Way at the point of a gun, that does in fact fill its lakes with toxins and the air of the planet with CO2. You are a lover, all right, the lover that is blind. Humorous how you tell him about Canada and dismiss what he says to you.

We have had 8 years of a fvcking, American-loving monkey in office and he is destroying America like a life loving malignant cancer.

The love of a fanatic is hate.

 

[little elvis]

Originally posted by: T2T III
Skoorb, I don't want to attack you, but if you can't vote, why are you so critical of our politics here in the U.S.? I love America. I love my freedom. The only time I've ever felt like someone bent me over the fence was when I was in Canada (many times, I might add). Their tax system (GST + PST) making a combined tax of approximately 15% on purchases seems just plain wrong.

Now, if they could just get rid of the cold and those silly taxes, Canada would be a damn fine place to live.

I pay 5% sales tax and I live in Canada.... please don't make assumptions that all Provinces have the same tax structure, just like different States have different tax structures.