People migrating from blue to red suberbs...because its more affordable

[alcoholbob]

now spend some time wondering why these blue state places are more expensive.

Coastal areas have limited space, strict zoning laws, and there's a strong preference to build premium housing because rich people from 3rd world countries like to park their money in expensive real estate and can outbid the locals?

 

[ch33zw1z]

This isnt a new thing. I can get 2x the land and house for less money....but I really dont wanna live in the bible belt.

hopefully others can handle it...and go there and vote blue

 

[Starbuck1975]

why are the housing prices "inflated"? The rest of your post is derp express.

Watch the big short. The rest of my post is reality.

 

[fskimospy]

Watch the big short. The rest of my post is reality.

Wait, you’re claiming high real estate prices on the coasts are due to widespread mortgage fraud? The collapse of lending standards was the primary cause of the housing crisis you reference.

Isn’t the more likely answer that these are the areas with lots of good, high paying jobs that haven’t built nearly enough housing for decades?

 

[Mai72]

Yes, people are moving from blue to red states. We are currently experiencing an exodus of people leaving NJ for cheaper pastures.

But... Here is the issue. Those red states are going to be expensive to live in soon enough. People are going to demand better schools, More options for their disabled children. More services. Etc.. Nothing wrong with that, but in the end someone has to pay for it. And, it's the taxpayers. Enjoy the low taxes for now my red state brother. It ain't going to last.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Wait, you’re claiming high real estate prices on the coasts are due to widespread mortgage fraud? The collapse of lending standards was the primary cause of the housing crisis you reference.

Isn’t the more likely answer that these are the areas with lots of good, high paying jobs that haven’t built nearly enough housing for decades?

I moved to CA in the early 2000s for a decent paying job. I was always taught that to buy a house, you save 20% and never exceed 40% of your income for housing payments.

I watched as my middle class Boomer coworkers around me, already established in their homes since the 70s and 80s, used their homes like ATMs while others used exotic financing to get into homes they could not afford. Prices kept climbing up up up, until the charade ended. I was hoping for a correction, but instead the government bailed out the banks. I actually wrote Feinstein, Boxer and Pelosi, and got nicely written letters from their staffers dismissively explaining why the government needed to protect their wall street investor buddies.

And after the crash, the investor class, dirty foreign money and the HGTV flipper wannabees swooped in and sucked up all the inventory.

None of this has anything to do with jobs. I was smart and got the hell out. The salaries and median incomes didn't measurably change to justify the prices. Sure, you have some people killing it in tech, but not enough to justify housing being removed from basic economic fundamentals.

I think it is hilarious that coastal liberals believe they legislated climate and geography into existence.

What I am starting to see is that automation is also starting to change the dynamic. Why spend $200k on a coder in NY or Boston or Silicon Valley when I can get a comparably skilled coder in Atlanta or Austin or St Louis or Raleigh. Thanks to automation, talent is just a web conference away, and also getting commoditized.

Also, it is healthy for people to question what their taxes are going to. When it was a nice tax write off, people don't engage. I see a lot of angry people now starting to engage and question how local government is spending their tax dollars.

 

[fskimospy]

I moved to CA in the early 2000s for a decent paying job. I was always taught that to buy a house, you save 20% and never exceed 40% of your income for housing payments.

I watched as my middle class Boomer coworkers around me, already established in their homes since the 70s and 80s, used their homes like ATMs while others used exotic financing to get into homes they could not afford. Prices kept climbing up up up, until the charade ended. I was hoping for a correction, but instead the government bailed out the banks. I actually wrote Feinstein, Boxer and Pelosi, and got nicely written letters from their staffers explaining nicely why the government needed to protect their wall street investor buddies.

Well they were very right that those bailouts were necessary. It’s why we only suffered a serious recession instead of a second Great Depression.

As for ‘exotic financing to get homes they couldn’t afford’ what you are referring to is ‘fraud’.

And after the crash, the investor class, dirty foreign money and the HGTV flipper wannabees swooped in and sucked up all the inventory.

What’s your factual basis for this?

None of this has anything to do with jobs. I was smart and got the hell out. The salaries and median incomes didn't measurably change to justify the prices. Sure, you have some people killing it in tech, but not enough to justify housing being removed from basic economic fundamentals.

Demand vastly exceeds supply. The answer is to build more houses.

I think it is hilarious that coastal liberals believe they legislated climate and geography into existence.

Now you’re just letting anger and bitterness cloud your thinking.

What I am starting to see is that automation is also starting to change the dynamic. Why spend $200k on a coder in NY or Boston or Silicon Valley when I can get a comparably skilled coder in Atlanta or Austin or St Louis or Raleigh. Thanks to automation, talent is just a web conference away, and also getting commoditized.

Not so far. In fact, some banks tried moving out of NYC after the crash to save money using the exact arguments you are. Guess what? They are moving back because they couldn’t attract talent.

Also, it is healthy for people to question what their taxes are going to. When it was a nice tax write off, people don't engage. I see a lot of angry people now starting to engage and question how local government is spending their tax dollars.

It’s always good for people to question where their tax dollars are going. For example those increased taxes people in coastal states are paying is so that the heirs of millionaires don’t pay tax on their inheritance. It’s smart to question which political party and which ideology thinks that’s a good idea and act accordingly.

 

[Starbuck1975]

Well they were very right that those bailouts were necessary. It’s why we only suffered a serious recession instead of a second Great Depression.

And the architects of the crisis laughed all the way to the bank, with not one bank facing any serious repercussions for what was at best folly and at worst criminal.

As for ‘exotic financing to get homes they couldn’t afford’ what you are referring to is ‘fraud’.

Those fly by night mortgage companies gave anyone with a pulse a mortgage and no one did anything to stop it because real estate gave a momentary illusion of economic stability. Maybe we would benefit from a nice depression.

What’s your factual basis for this?

Articles in the NY Times and LA Times, although the Dr Housing Bubble blog is a must read if you honestly want the factual basis for this.

Demand vastly exceeds supply. The answer is to build more houses.

Just not in my beach city/gentrified neighborhood/white collar suburb/back yard

Now you’re just letting anger and bitterness cloud your thinking.

I call it for what it is

Not so far. In fact, some banks tried moving out of NYC after the crash to save money using the exact arguments you are. Guess what? They are moving back because they couldn’t attract talent.

Maybe there are different truths for different industries. I am starting to see a real shift in the sense that there is not a huge performance differential between "top talent" and kids coming out of "lesser" schools. If anything, the kids coming out of "lesser" schools have a stronger work ethic and a lower sense of entitlement.

 

[Moonbeam]

Demand vastly exceeds supply. The answer is to build more houses.

Well if we are going to play that game then know that those with the means to the supply will want to keep the demand right where it is. I am planning to sell when my properties are worth ten times what they are today, but that's not going to happen if I have to wait ten minutes at the corner for the light to change after an hour getting though a hundred yards crowded with thousands of people. In your desire to meet demand, you meet it by turning what is demanded into shit so nobody will demand it. That is the fate of a competitive system, to be eaten by rats. And only rats win. What will be your solution when the earth is covered in skyscrapers and air is a thousand dollars a bottle. It is inevitable that the plague of demand move to Red States. Time to learn how to raise chickens. I suggest you buy your place in the sunny country now before inflation prices you out of the market. They ain't making anymore land. And if you are anything like the yuppie plague on the land, you will also demand your chickens be free ranged.

 

[Greenman]

The housing bubble was driven by the "stated income" loan. No docs, no proof of income, nothing. I know a fellow who had a stay at home wife, 4 kids, and a car payment. He made $17 an hour and purchased a $350k condo with a 20/80 reverse amortization loan, and not a single dollar out of his pocket. His plan was to sell in five years when he actually had to start paying down the loans. The market blew up after 4 years. He walked away and actually came out ahead because he paid below market rent for four years.

 

[JSt0rm]

And the architects of the crisis laughed all the way to the bank, with not one bank facing any serious repercussions for what was at best folly and at worst criminal.


Those fly by night mortgage companies gave anyone with a pulse a mortgage and no one did anything to stop it because real estate gave a momentary illusion of economic stability. Maybe we would benefit from a nice depression.


Articles in the NY Times and LA Times, although the Dr Housing Bubble blog is a must read if you honestly want the factual basis for this.


Just not in my beach city/gentrified neighborhood/white collar suburb/back yard


I call it for what it is


Maybe there are different truths for different industries. I am starting to see a real shift in the sense that there is not a huge performance differential between "top talent" and kids coming out of "lesser" schools. If anything, the kids coming out of "lesser" schools have a stronger work ethic and a lower sense of entitlement.

you are all over the place.

 

[yllus]

I live in a blue state deep in Clinton country, and I've enjoyed hearing the water cooler conversations now that the upper middle class may take a tax hit. Some are starting to ponder relocation. Still others, rather than lament not being able to deduct their state and local taxes, are actually starting to question why those taxes are so high to begin with. When those taxes provided a nice little deduction cushion, no reason to question them. Now, people may actually question what those taxes actually pay for.

HAHAHA okay sir I believe you've simply misposted, you meant to put this in r/ThatHappened. I place your post as slightly less believable than this gem:

 

[snoopy7548]

HAHAHA okay sir I believe you've simply misposted, you meant to put this in r/ThatHappened. I place your post as slightly less believable than this gem:

Nice story. Reminds me of this...

 

[woolfe9998]

It's happening, and it's only going to accelerate with Republicans targeting blue states for higher taxes. I think it's going to be good for the country in terms of distribution of talent, and it's going to be great for the Democrats nationally. Think of techies leaving CA and moving to NC, TX, CO, VA, etc. They aren't going to become Republicans with GOP attacking words "science" and "evidence."

Absolutely. Electorally, the biggest problem dems have right now is too much excess pop situated in certain states like CA and NY which hurts them with the electoral college. Better for dems if some of those people move to red areas and start turning them blue.

 

[woolfe9998]

Wait, you’re claiming high real estate prices on the coasts are due to widespread mortgage fraud? The collapse of lending standards was the primary cause of the housing crisis you reference.

Isn’t the more likely answer that these are the areas with lots of good, high paying jobs that haven’t built nearly enough housing for decades?

It's not a question of likelihood. It's a fact. I live here in the bay area. You can't build a friggin house anywhere around here. The local policies, officials and citizen reaction are all anti-growth, all the time.

 

[Starbuck1975]

you are all over the place.

@fskimospy cherry picked and I responded to the cherries

 

[Starbuck1975]

HAHAHA okay sir I believe you've simply misposted, you meant to put this in r/ThatHappened. I place your post as slightly less believable than this gem:

Believe what you want.

 

[JSt0rm]

Believe what you want.

thats all you do.

 

[cytg111]

Nice story. Reminds me of this...

You know, from a game mechanics point of view, if he dont act he wont know if he is A or B.
Always define your hand.

 

[Starbuck1975]

thats all you do.

Merry christmas!

 

[greatnoob]

thats all you do.

Like a typical Trumptard, he isn't capable of self reflection lol

 

[fskimospy]

And the architects of the crisis laughed all the way to the bank, with not one bank facing any serious repercussions for what was at best folly and at worst criminal.

Sounds like we should have utilized the criminal code more then, not decided to have a worldwide economic depression to teach them a lesson.

Those fly by night mortgage companies gave anyone with a pulse a mortgage and no one did anything to stop it because real estate gave a momentary illusion of economic stability. Maybe we would benefit from a nice depression.

No, we would not. If you think the infliction of mass human suffering on millions of people who had nothing to do with this crisis is the correct answer I have no idea what to say.

Articles in the NY Times and LA Times, although the Dr Housing Bubble blog is a must read if you honestly want the factual basis for this.

I would like the factual basis from you. If you think you have facts that support this please link them.

Just not in my beach city/gentrified neighborhood/white collar suburb/back yard

I call it for what it is

Exactly! Now we're back to the whole 'not building enough housing' thing, which was my point from the beginning. Good to see you've come around. You aren't 'calling it like it is' though when you rant about coastal liberals thinking they invented climate, you're clearly angry and bitter about the whole thing and you're letting it cloud your thinking. Best to dispense with that nonsense.

Maybe there are different truths for different industries. I am starting to see a real shift in the sense that there is not a huge performance differential between "top talent" and kids coming out of "lesser" schools. If anything, the kids coming out of "lesser" schools have a stronger work ethic and a lower sense of entitlement.

'Starting to see' this where and how, and what data backs this up?

 

[PricklyPete]

It's happening, and it's only going to accelerate with Republicans targeting blue states for higher taxes. I think it's going to be good for the country in terms of distribution of talent, and it's going to be great for the Democrats nationally. Think of techies leaving CA and moving to NC, TX, CO, VA, etc. They aren't going to become Republicans with GOP attacking words "science" and "evidence."

Really has already happened in CO. Even conservative strongholds like Colorado Springs is turning blue as places like Denver get prohibitively expensive. I don’t see Cory Gardner getting a second term.

 

[vi edit]

So to get this thread back on track, I think the real important thing to look at is specific demographics. Age and do they have kids being the big ones. Lots of retiree's packing up from expensive coastal or major urban areas and moving to cheaper places. Texas, Florida, Arizona and Las Vegas are the big targets there. You have people moving from California, IL and the PNW to those areas. If they are retirees then they aren't putting kids into the school system. No additional kids coming in means the schools aren't stressed with more enrollment. No increase in enrollment means no need to build more schools, pay more teachers, run more buses, ect. You aren't raising property taxes to compensate for those re-locations.

I'd like to see more data on the migratory patterns of the 50+ age group vs the 30 and under. Who's going where?

 

[K1052]

Many regional/state urban hubs even in the reddest states are growing, getting filled up with younger more liberal people. Have a decent college or two, some employment base to build on and a modicum of infrastructure and they appear. Some places more slowly than others but it's happening. Places like VA and CO seem to be on the forefront of that trend and the balance of political power has shifted or is in the active process of doing so. A fascinating possibility is that the Republican tax bill could dramatically accelerate this trend, file that under "unintended consequences" I guess.