Intel has a very mature process for the Northwood as well as very high yields, however, there is no guranteed level of overclocking. The best pieces are tested and sorted out to become 2.53s or 2.4s or 2.26s etc. Because Intel has such high yields, most of the 1.8s would qualify for more, but as I said, no guarantees. You may be unlucky and buy a bad overclocker. According to what people say here in the forum, getting around 2.4Ghz with a 1.8a is nearly a no-brainer, 2.5 to 2.6 is likely, more than 2.6 is rare (at least with a reasonable effort and investment).
Your overclocking is also dependant on the other hardware. I was able to get from 2.2 to 2.4 by using a better PSU. So sometimes it is other components, which make the difference.
Nevertheless I believe, that the 1.8a is a very good choice. Very cheap and a very high probability to get at least a 33% oc, with some luck even more. Make a decision, if you want to get to the highest frequencies or if you want to have the most bang for the buck and that is definitely the 1.6 or 1.8.
Cheers
Speedy