Originally posted by: KingNothing
Playing on party poker and a guy just lost $50. Someone went all-in preflop with A-K suited, and he called with pocket 7's. Now he's arguing that he had a 50-50 chance of winning that pot and I'm saying it's less than that.
Anyone know who's right?
Here is my take on the situation.
Here is what we don't know about this hand. (It would be nice to know this info.)
1) We don't know the blinds, so determining whether the AK was short-stacked w/ $50 is impossible to determine. I going to assume he wasn't as I assume the BB was less than $5.
2) We also don't know relative position. For instance did 77 call the all-in w/ players behind him?
Assuming no initial raise or a small raise, AKs is definitely worth a raise or possibly a re-raise. You need to thin out the field with this hand as well as represent a possible high pair for a flop semi-bluff. Going all-in with a drawing hand (a mistake I've made in tournament play before) is not a particularly strong play since you have to consider the hands that will call you. You're best bet are hands you dominate such as AQ and AJ, although getting a call from these hands is pretty unlikely. In addition, AA and KK will automatically call you in this situation, although the chances of running into either hand are pretty slim, especially when holding AK, but it does happen. Usually, your all-in will be enough to take down the very meager pot and when you do get called, usually by mid-pairs and higher, you would be a slight underdog. Personally, I like the idea of a strong raise followed by a semi-bluff on the river if your hand doesn't hit. AK hits near 30% on the flop. Combine that with the chance of a successful semi-bluff (assuming no more than 3 callers) and I believe you have a much more profitable strategy than "AK All-in".
Now calling an All-in w/ a hand as mediocre as 77 is a much worse play unless the All-in is short-stacked or you suspect them of trying to steal your blind. I would guess that making this call puts you in a 4-1 dog situation (up against an over pair) at least half of the time. The other half of the time would probably be split between a coin flip (such as in this example) and an under pair. In addition, if there are callers behind you and you are determined to make this play, it would probably be correct to raise all-in yourself, representing a monster hand. This should make anybody else holding anything less than KK muck their hand. Either way, I see this as a loose call, which over time, will hurt your bankroll.