Poker question about odds

[KingNothing]

Playing on party poker and a guy just lost $50. Someone went all-in preflop with A-K suited, and he called with pocket 7's. Now he's arguing that he had a 50-50 chance of winning that pot and I'm saying it's less than that.

Anyone know who's right?

 

[Kipper]

You are because you won.

 

[mchammer187]

you are a slight favorite but it is going to be close to 50 percent

i think if you had 22 he would be favorite

basically the number sitations where the board double pairs and he wins with a kicker say 33 and 44 flop

are the only things that matter with 77 there are less of them than 22

if you had QQ you would be around 54% if you had 22 you would be at 46% i'm not sure those numbers are exact though

at 77 you are probably a 51-52% favorite

 

[Ns1]

pocket's had a slightly better chance of winning

should be like 54% vs 46% (pulling those numbers out of my ass)

but in a heads up situation pocket's are favored.

now, if you had the AK, you'd be at an advantage to have gone all in than to have called all in.

 

[SLU MD]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=88037
pokenum -h as ks - 7c 7s
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks 809660 47.28 895267 52.28 7377 0.43 0.475
7s 7c 895267 52.28 809660 47.28 7377 0.43 0.525

basically 50/50. ballsy call by you.

SLU M.D.

 

[TheLonelyPhoenix]

Unless it was a heads-up game, that was a dumb move. Definitely not 50-50.

Edit: Actually, considering he was the one short-stacked, that would have been a dumb move heads-up too.

 

[Azurik]

Pokerwannabes

He was saying it was 50/50 heads up after the fact, which was correct given only two people played in that hand.

As for The LonelyPhoenix saying going all-in with pockets heads-up a dumb move, I want to play you Being short-stacked with that situation, you are slightly favored, and with pocket 7's, you don't want the other person in the game catching a higher card.

 

[KingNothing]

First, I wasn't involved in this hand, only watching. The guy with A-K went all in for $50 against a player with ~$150. The $150 player called with pocket 7's and lost to a pair of kings.

It's surprising to me that it's considered a 50-50 situation, I certainly wouldn't call a $50 bet with pocket 7's pre-flop.

 

[TheLonelyPhoenix]

Originally posted by: Azurik
Pokerwannabes

He was saying it was 50/50 heads up after the fact, which was correct given only two people played in that hand.

As for The LonelyPhoenix saying going all-in with pockets heads-up a dumb move, I want to play you Being short-stacked with that situation, you are slightly favored, and with pocket 7's, you don't want the other person in the game catching a higher card.

Explain to me how being short-stacked and going all-in with a mid pocket pair is a good idea.

 

[dafatha00]

Originally posted by: KingNothing
First, I wasn't involved in this hand, only watching. The guy with A-K went all in for $50 against a player with ~$150. The $150 player called with pocket 7's and lost to a pair of kings.

It's surprising to me that it's considered a 50-50 situation, I certainly wouldn't call a $50 bet with pocket 7's pre-flop.

It's very much so a 50-50 situation. Pocket 7s is slightly better. AK still needs another Ace or King to make his pair.

 

[KingNothing]

Also, this wasn't a tournament, this was live play. I could understand this a little more in a tournament, I guess.

 

[TheLonelyPhoenix]

Originally posted by: KingNothing
First, I wasn't involved in this hand, only watching. The guy with A-K went all in for $50 against a player with ~$150. The $150 player called with pocket 7's and lost to a pair of kings.

It's surprising to me that it's considered a 50-50 situation, I certainly wouldn't call a $50 bet with pocket 7's pre-flop.

As far as odds go in a heads-up game, its about 50-50... tke AK has more outs but can also get his hand cracked if he doesn't catch anything. The pocket 7s are more solid on their own, but you have less chance of strengthing your hand by catching trips.

That said, when your stack is a fraction of the other guy's in a heads-up game, playing 50-50 hands gets you nowhere.

 

[KingNothing]

Originally posted by: dafatha00

Originally posted by: KingNothing
First, I wasn't involved in this hand, only watching. The guy with A-K went all in for $50 against a player with ~$150. The $150 player called with pocket 7's and lost to a pair of kings.

It's surprising to me that it's considered a 50-50 situation, I certainly wouldn't call a $50 bet with pocket 7's pre-flop.

It's very much so a 50-50 situation. Pocket 7s is slightly better. AK still needs another Ace or King to make his pair.

See I view that as having 6 outs against a hand with 2 outs. Plus it was suited, so there's the flush possibility as well. Straight too, I guess. With pocket 7's, there are much fewer possibilities for catching something that improves your hand.

Not that I would bet $50 with A-K, or call $50 with A-K, or pocket 7's either. I would expect someone who goes all in for $50 at a $50 NL table to have A-K, honestly. Doesn't mean I'd call with pocket 7's.

 

[mchammer187]

Originally posted by: KingNothing

Originally posted by: dafatha00

Originally posted by: KingNothing
First, I wasn't involved in this hand, only watching. The guy with A-K went all in for $50 against a player with ~$150. The $150 player called with pocket 7's and lost to a pair of kings.

It's surprising to me that it's considered a 50-50 situation, I certainly wouldn't call a $50 bet with pocket 7's pre-flop.

It's very much so a 50-50 situation. Pocket 7s is slightly better. AK still needs another Ace or King to make his pair.

See I view that as having 8 outs against a hand with two outs. Plus it was suited, so there's the flush possibility as well.

Not that I would be $50 with A-K, or call $50 with A-K, or pocket 7's either. I would expect someone who goes all in for $50 at a $50 NL table to have A-K, honestly. Doesn't mean I'd call with pocket 7's.

there are no outs if you are winning the hand
you only need outs if you are losing the hand

 

[KingNothing]

Originally posted by: mchammer187

Originally posted by: KingNothing

Originally posted by: dafatha00

Originally posted by: KingNothing
First, I wasn't involved in this hand, only watching. The guy with A-K went all in for $50 against a player with ~$150. The $150 player called with pocket 7's and lost to a pair of kings.

It's surprising to me that it's considered a 50-50 situation, I certainly wouldn't call a $50 bet with pocket 7's pre-flop.

It's very much so a 50-50 situation. Pocket 7s is slightly better. AK still needs another Ace or King to make his pair.

See I view that as having 8 outs against a hand with two outs. Plus it was suited, so there's the flush possibility as well.

Not that I would be $50 with A-K, or call $50 with A-K, or pocket 7's either. I would expect someone who goes all in for $50 at a $50 NL table to have A-K, honestly. Doesn't mean I'd call with pocket 7's.

there are no outs if you are winning the hand
you only need outs if you are losing the hand

Semantics.

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: KingNothing

Originally posted by: dafatha00

Originally posted by: KingNothing
First, I wasn't involved in this hand, only watching. The guy with A-K went all in for $50 against a player with ~$150. The $150 player called with pocket 7's and lost to a pair of kings.

It's surprising to me that it's considered a 50-50 situation, I certainly wouldn't call a $50 bet with pocket 7's pre-flop.

It's very much so a 50-50 situation. Pocket 7s is slightly better. AK still needs another Ace or King to make his pair.

See I view that as having 6 outs against a hand with 2 outs. Plus it was suited, so there's the flush possibility as well. Straight too, I guess. With pocket 7's, there are much fewer possibilities for catching something that improves your hand.

Not that I would bet $50 with A-K, or call $50 with A-K, or pocket 7's either. I would expect someone who goes all in for $50 at a $50 NL table to have A-K, honestly. Doesn't mean I'd call with pocket 7's.

the AK still needs to make a hand. the 7's don't.

 

[95SS]

Bad call by the player with the 77. At best, he's a coin flip to win, and there's a good chance he's a 4:1 dog, with the opponent having an overpair. I know he won that hand, but that wasn't a good play preflop. If the situations were reversed, it would be a good play to push in with 77 on the short stack, for an opponent to call, they would have to have a big pair.

 

[HonkeyDonk]

Originally posted by: KingNothing

Originally posted by: mchammer187

Originally posted by: KingNothing

Originally posted by: dafatha00

Originally posted by: KingNothing
First, I wasn't involved in this hand, only watching. The guy with A-K went all in for $50 against a player with ~$150. The $150 player called with pocket 7's and lost to a pair of kings.

It's surprising to me that it's considered a 50-50 situation, I certainly wouldn't call a $50 bet with pocket 7's pre-flop.

It's very much so a 50-50 situation. Pocket 7s is slightly better. AK still needs another Ace or King to make his pair.

See I view that as having 8 outs against a hand with two outs. Plus it was suited, so there's the flush possibility as well.

Not that I would be $50 with A-K, or call $50 with A-K, or pocket 7's either. I would expect someone who goes all in for $50 at a $50 NL table to have A-K, honestly. Doesn't mean I'd call with pocket 7's.

there are no outs if you are winning the hand
you only need outs if you are losing the hand

Semantics.

lol...awesome.

 

[paulee]

Just another tip for the hand.. AK is a great hand to have, because when it hits, it's guaranteed top pair with top kicker.

That said, AK is typically NOT a preflop all-in hand, on a live table. Instead, depending on position, get some money in the pot and see a flop. If you miss, you aren't pot committed like you might have been with QQ or KK.

Going head to head, if I was forced to play, I would take 22 over AK.

 

[mchammer187]

Originally posted by: KingNothing

Originally posted by: mchammer187

Originally posted by: KingNothing

Originally posted by: dafatha00

Originally posted by: KingNothing
First, I wasn't involved in this hand, only watching. The guy with A-K went all in for $50 against a player with ~$150. The $150 player called with pocket 7's and lost to a pair of kings.

It's surprising to me that it's considered a 50-50 situation, I certainly wouldn't call a $50 bet with pocket 7's pre-flop.

It's very much so a 50-50 situation. Pocket 7s is slightly better. AK still needs another Ace or King to make his pair.

See I view that as having 8 outs against a hand with two outs. Plus it was suited, so there's the flush possibility as well.

Not that I would be $50 with A-K, or call $50 with A-K, or pocket 7's either. I would expect someone who goes all in for $50 at a $50 NL table to have A-K, honestly. Doesn't mean I'd call with pocket 7's.

there are no outs if you are winning the hand
you only need outs if you are losing the hand

Semantics.

no

77 can with with 0 of its so called "outs" hitting

 

[Kyteland]

http://www.wizardofodds.com/holdem/holdem-2players.html

Cards Win Lose Draw Return Probability Additive Probability
K/A suited - 66.22% 32.13% 1.65% 34.09% 0.30% 3.47%
Pair of 7's - 65.73% 33.25% 1.02% 32.47% 0.45% 3.92%

More odds stuff: http://www.wizardofodds.com/holdem

 

[TheLonelyPhoenix]

Originally posted by: Kyteland
http://www.wizardofodds.com/holdem/holdem-2players.html

Cards Win Lose Draw Return Probability Additive Probability
K/A suited - 66.22% 32.13% 1.65% 34.09% 0.30% 3.47%
Pair of 7's - 65.73% 33.25% 1.02% 32.47% 0.45% 3.92%

More odds stuff: http://www.wizardofodds.com/holdem

Cool site.

 

[mugs]

I don' t know much about poker, so all of the terminology you're using is pretty much meaningless to me. But it seems to me that you're all comparing the odds of the guy with 77 beating a AK, when the guy with the 77 didn't know the other guy had AK until after he lost. Don't you want to figure how many possible hands could beat a 77 vs. how many hands the 77 would beat?

Edit: If I'm interpreting Kyteland's table correctly, he has the right answer. The guy had a 65% chance of winning well better than 50-50. The AK's probability of winning isn't really relevant.

 

[mchammer187]

Originally posted by: mugs
I don' t know much about poker, so all of the terminology you're using is pretty much meaningless to me. But it seems to me that you're all comparing the odds of the guy with 77 beating a AK, when the guy with the 77 didn't know the other guy had AK until after he lost. Don't you want to figure how many possible hands could beat a 77 vs. how many hands the 77 would beat?

only need to know two things

2 overcards against a lower pair means a close to 50-50 shot

a pair higher than 77 has a 4-1 shot of beating the pocket 7's

if anyone is going to call with less than that they are extremely dumb

 

[torpid]

How many people were dealt to in the hand? Was it just two people? If so then I don't think anyone made a big mistake. If there were 10 people and 8 folded, I think that the pocket 7's call was risky. But it depends on the strategy of the players. If the AK guy tends to overbet, the call was ok. Otherwise it is risky.