Poker Question - About Odds

[purbeast0]

I'm going to a casino tonight and playing poker in a casino for my first time. I've been reading up on some odds and stuff and trying to get more sense of how to play statistically. Currently I only play with friends every now and then and we play low blinds (.25/.50) and just rather have a good time than win a lot of money.

So i'm a little confused as to this situation. Say you have a heart flush draw on the flop. That means the chance of getting a heart card on the turn is 9/45 = 20%. However the chances of getting it on the turn OR flop is about 35% (according to a site I saw). That's the # I am just not understanding. I know it's basic statistics but I just cannot remember it. I know if you miss it on the turn, the chances of it on the river are 9/44 which is slightly better than getting it on the turn. However I still cannot come up with that 35% number that I read on another site.

Also when googling about odds, it seems like they all copied and pasted their explanations of the odds. I am still kind of confused as to Bet odds and stuff as well. I am understanding that Pot odds are basically how much you have to bet vs. how much is already in the pot (if there is $50 in the pot, and you have to pay $5 to see the next card, pot odds are 1/10). And if I'm not mistaken, Bet odds are basically your Outs odds. vs your Pot Odds. So if you have a 1/3 chance of hitting your outs, and you have pot odds of say 1/9, then your bet odds are 3 to 1, which you would want to play.

Any explanation of what I have right/wrong would be appreciated. Again, I tried googling this stuff but me not understanding the first part of my post is kind of making me not understand the rest of it. Heh it's frustrating too cause I'm a math guy

Also any tips for a first time casino poker player would be appreciated! I know I'll feel a little intimidated already but I think that'll wear off quickly.

 

[purbeast0]

i know some of you play cards!

 

[PoloShirt]

Don't get too worried about the odds.

Just play tight and slightly aggressive and take advantage of the drunks. You'll clean up.

DON'T BET STUPID, PLAY SMART THE ENTIRE TIME OR YOU'LL LEAVE WITH AN EMPTY WALLET.

 

[Viper GTS]

Sometimes in odds it's easier to figure out the odds of it NOT happening than it happening.

Assuming a flush draw on the flop, you've seen 5 of 52 cards and 4 of 13 of your suit.

The odds of NOT getting your flush are:

(38/47)*(37/46) = 0.65

Thus your odds of making it are 0.35, or 35%.

Viper GTS

 

[Garet Jax]

It is easier to see it this way.

The odds of getting the heart flush are equal to (1-the odds of not getting it). Therefore,

you have two cards and there are 3 exposed so there are 47 remaining cards (don't count the cards you can't see). In addition, there are 9 remaining hearts in the deck.

So to miss a heart you must pull 38/47 and 37/46 whichs equals 38*37/ 47*46 = 0.6503.......

So 1-(.6503) ~ 0.35

You reverse the odds so you can get the AND relationship and multiple the odds out.

 

[TCPpacket]

a quick way to estimate your % of winning the hand goes like this. take the # of outs you have and multiply by 4 on the turn or 2 on the river and that will give you rough estimate.

 

[purbeast0]

Originally posted by: Viper GTS
Sometimes in odds it's easier to figure out the odds of it NOT happening than it happening.

Assuming a flush draw on the flop, you've seen 5 of 52 cards and 4 of 13 of your suit.

The odds of NOT getting your flush are:

(38/47)*(37/46) = 0.65

Thus your odds of making it are 0.35, or 35%.

Viper GTS

Oh crap! You just solved my problem though. I was counting the 2 cards in the other players hands when doing my math, which was my error.

9/47 * 9/46 ~= 35%

Prior I was doing 9/45/ and 9/44, and when multiplying them i wasn't getting 35 ... makes sense now, thanks!

 

[purbeast0]

Originally posted by: TCPpacket
a quick way to estimate your % of winning the hand goes like this. take the # of outs you have and multiply by 4 on the turn or 2 on the river and that will give you rough estimate.

wow great tipe! :thumbsup:

that's definitely something I will remember tonight.

 

[Viper GTS]

Originally posted by: purbeast0

Originally posted by: Viper GTS
Sometimes in odds it's easier to figure out the odds of it NOT happening than it happening.

Assuming a flush draw on the flop, you've seen 5 of 52 cards and 4 of 13 of your suit.

The odds of NOT getting your flush are:

(38/47)*(37/46) = 0.65

Thus your odds of making it are 0.35, or 35%.

Viper GTS

Oh crap! You just solved my problem though. I was counting the 2 cards in the other players hands when doing my math, which was my error.

9/47 * 9/46 ~= 35%

Prior I was doing 9/45/ and 9/44, and when multiplying them i wasn't getting 35 ... makes sense now, thanks!

Your error is more than that, you can't figure it that way. If you wanted to calculate the odds of a four flush on the river you could use (9/47)*(8/46) but that's not what you're looking for.

1 - the odds of it not happening is the correct way to calculate it.

Viper GTS

 

[Suspicious-Teach8788]

Originally posted by: purbeast0

Originally posted by: TCPpacket
a quick way to estimate your % of winning the hand goes like this. take the # of outs you have and multiply by 4 on the turn or 2 on the river and that will give you rough estimate.

wow great tipe! :thumbsup:

that's definitely something I will remember tonight.

This is the quickest way and you should use it. Everytime I bring this up to my friend who think he's pro, he's like "YOU CAN'T JUST USE ODDS." Well duh. Because obviously if yuo're even using these calculations, you're drawing, meaning you're already putting your opponent on a better hand.

Thus half the skill comes in whether you can read correctly or not. If you're drawing then this is an excellent method.

If you play with the odds (favorable) then in the LONG RUN you will make money. Sure you will lose money here and there, but in the long run you will be positive in money.

 

[purbeast0]

Originally posted by: Viper GTS

Originally posted by: purbeast0

Originally posted by: Viper GTS
Sometimes in odds it's easier to figure out the odds of it NOT happening than it happening.

Assuming a flush draw on the flop, you've seen 5 of 52 cards and 4 of 13 of your suit.

The odds of NOT getting your flush are:

(38/47)*(37/46) = 0.65

Thus your odds of making it are 0.35, or 35%.

Viper GTS

Oh crap! You just solved my problem though. I was counting the 2 cards in the other players hands when doing my math, which was my error.

9/47 * 9/46 ~= 35%

Prior I was doing 9/45/ and 9/44, and when multiplying them i wasn't getting 35 ... makes sense now, thanks!

Your error is more than that, you can't figure it that way. If you wanted to calculate the odds of a four flush on the river you could use (9/47)*(8/46) but that's not what you're looking for.

1 - the odds of it not happening is the correct way to calculate it.

Viper GTS

Why is the first number in the fraction changing from the turn to the river? that doesn't make sense unless the turn WAS a heart.

 

[Yossarian]

check out www.twoplustwo.com, they have a forum for brick & mortar casinos with a good FAQ. important stuff is to keep track of the pot size, announce a raise so you don't accidentally string bet, and don't be a calling station

oh yeah, physically protect your hand at all times. put a chip or something on your cards especially if you're sitting right next to the dealer so he doesn't muck them on you.

 

[JEDI]

Originally posted by: purbeast0
I'm going to a casino tonight and playing poker in a casino for my first time. I've been reading up on some odds and stuff and trying to get more sense of how to play statistically. Currently I only play with friends every now and then and we play low blinds (.25/.50) and just rather have a good time than win a lot of money.

So i'm a little confused as to this situation. Say you have a heart flush draw on the flop. That means the chance of getting a heart card on the turn is 9/45 = 20%. However the chances of getting it on the turn OR flop is about 35% (according to a site I saw). That's the # I am just not understanding. I know it's basic statistics but I just cannot remember it. I know if you miss it on the turn, the chances of it on the river are 9/44 which is slightly better than getting it on the turn. However I still cannot come up with that 35% number that I read on another site.

Also when googling about odds, it seems like they all copied and pasted their explanations of the odds. I am still kind of confused as to Bet odds and stuff as well. I am understanding that Pot odds are basically how much you have to bet vs. how much is already in the pot (if there is $50 in the pot, and you have to pay $5 to see the next card, pot odds are 1/10). And if I'm not mistaken, Bet odds are basically your Outs odds. vs your Pot Odds. So if you have a 1/3 chance of hitting your outs, and you have pot odds of say 1/9, then your bet odds are 3 to 1, which you would want to play.

Any explanation of what I have right/wrong would be appreciated. Again, I tried googling this stuff but me not understanding the first part of my post is kind of making me not understand the rest of it. Heh it's frustrating too cause I'm a math guy

Also any tips for a first time casino poker player would be appreciated! I know I'll feel a little intimidated already but I think that'll wear off quickly.

all in with:
Any Ace
Any 2 suited face cards
any pair

 

[Lorax]

if you are going to play in a casino, be prepared to meet some of the most annoying people in the world. i've played live 5+ times and each time there was at least one person at my table that i wanted to strangle, or at least take a large pot off of.

that said you will meet some very nice and funny people as well. but watch out for the annoying ones.

 

[purbeast0]

Originally posted by: Lorax
if you are going to play in a casino, be prepared to meet some of the most annoying people in the world. i've played live 5+ times and each time there was at least one person at my table that i wanted to strangle, or at least take a large pot off of.

that said you will meet some very nice and funny people as well. but watch out for the annoying ones.

Yah it's kind of weird cause im so used to playign with my friends and brother, and we always just BS the whole time. But since we are goin to a casino, im not sure if we all wanna sit together or not heh, cause i dont wanna take a good amount of $$ from a friend or my bro!

 

[Abel007]

Don't forget to calculate what the other people are holding. They could all have hearts too! Then your odds drop significantly.

 

[fitzov]

This seems to be a pretty good site for odds:

http://www.compatiblepoker.com/Poker+Odds+Table.cms.htm

 

[fustercluck]

Originally posted by: TCPpacket
a quick way to estimate your % of winning the hand goes like this. take the # of outs you have and multiply by 4 on the turn or 2 on the river and that will give you rough estimate.

I don't quite get it... could someone give an example of this? I'd like to know it.

 

[Fiat1]

Play CRAPS a lot more fun and better odds

 

[purbeast0]

Originally posted by: Adaman

Originally posted by: TCPpacket
a quick way to estimate your % of winning the hand goes like this. take the # of outs you have and multiply by 4 on the turn or 2 on the river and that will give you rough estimate.

I don't quite get it... could someone give an example of this? I'd like to know it.

use the example we used above in here.

Real Odds:
on a 4 card heart flush draw on the flop, there is a possible 9 hearts left out of the 47 cards left. So the chances you will get it on the turn OR river are 9/47 * 9/46 ~= 35%.

on a 4 card heart flush draw on the flop, you have 9 outs to make it. 9 * 4 = 36% ... pretty close to 35%.

so you miss and only have the river left.

9/46 ~= 19%

9 * 2 = 18%

pretty good and quick.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: Adaman

Originally posted by: TCPpacket
a quick way to estimate your % of winning the hand goes like this. take the # of outs you have and multiply by 4 on the turn or 2 on the river and that will give you rough estimate.

I don't quite get it... could someone give an example of this? I'd like to know it.

YGPM

 

[Garet Jax]

There are really only two sets of odds to consider. The third would mean that you have to be able to accurately read your opponent. Suffice it to say if you don't think pulling your card (in this case the flush) will give you the best hand, then you have to fold immediately.

The other two are a little easier to calculate.

You have pot odds - it is the relationship between what you have to pay to call (or raise) and the size of the pot. So if the pot is $50 and you have to pay $10, then you will only need a 20% chance to win the pot to call.

Implied Odds are more difficult because they are affected by how your opponent plays. They are effectively the amount of money you think you can get out of your opponent if you hit your hand divided by the amount you have to pay to stay in the hand.

For example, let's say there is $50 in the pot, your opponent bets $50. You are holding a set (a pair in your hand and one matching card on the board), but you are pretty sure your opponent has a flush). Pot odds alone would not warrant a call since there are 3 cards on the board and only 7 cards remaining to pair the board, but if your opponent has $300 in his stack and you believe he will call an all in bet if you hit your full house or 4 of a kind, then it makes sense to call since you are only paying $50 to win $400 ($300 stack + $100 pot).

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: Abel007
Don't forget to calculate what the other people are holding. They could all have hearts too! Then your odds drop significantly.

There is no way to do this. You can only calculate your odds based on the number of known cards (your hole cards and the flop)

 

[anxi80]

ty purbeast0. i wrote up an explanation but thought to myself, better refresh to see if someone beat me to it and you explained a lot better than i could have. just hope no one asks to explain bep.

 

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: purbeast0
Why is the first number in the fraction changing from the turn to the river? that doesn't make sense unless the turn WAS a heart.

Remember you are calculating the odds of not making your flush so on the turn there are 9 hearts remaining. On the river there are still 9 hearts since you couldn't have pulled it.

The number on the denominator has been reduced since a card was drawn for the turn.