Poker Question - About Odds

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: Abel007
Don't forget to calculate what the other people are holding. They could all have hearts too! Then your odds drop significantly.

Hope you're joking since there is no way to know what your opponents are holding (especially the ones who folded).

 

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: Adaman

Originally posted by: TCPpacket
a quick way to estimate your % of winning the hand goes like this. take the # of outs you have and multiply by 4 on the turn or 2 on the river and that will give you rough estimate.

I don't quite get it... could someone give an example of this? I'd like to know it.

Sure take the original flush example. The OP is holding two and the board has two so there are 9 remaining. Assuming he has not over cards to a pair, then the OP has only 9 outs.

Since the turn card hasn't come, there is ~ 4X9% chance of pulling his card.
Once the turn card is displayed, there is ~ 2X9% chance of pulling his card.

 

[z42]

The most important thing to remember is to read your opponents. Don't get too caught up in the etiquette, though you should know the basic rules about raising, betting, etc. Try to learn them, but don't let them distract you from the most important thing which is the players.

If you are going to be playing low stakes ($200 buy in or less) the players will be terrible and will be giving away their hands left and right. Make sure you pay attention to the people playing the hands where you fold. If the really old guy that folds all the time raises you, you're going to lose 99/100 times. If the crazy guy who plays every hand raises you, you will have to call with a much wider range of hands.

Don't get me wrong, knowing proper etiquette is important, but knowing the players is where the $$ is.

 

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: z42
The most important thing to remember is to read your opponents. Don't get too caught up in the etiquette, though you should know the basic rules about raising, betting, etc. Try to learn them, but don't let them distract you from the most important thing which is the players.

If you are going to be playing low stakes ($200 buy in or less) the players will be terrible and will be giving away their hands left and right. Make sure you pay attention to the people playing the hands where you fold. If the really old guy that folds all the time raises you, you're going to lose 99/100 times. If the crazy guy who plays every hand raises you, you will have to call with a much wider range of hands.

Don't get me wrong, knowing proper etiquette is important, but knowing the players is where the $$ is.

100% agree. All these odds are worthless if pulling your card still results in you having the second best hand.

 

[Sparke]

Might be worth it to spend a few bucks on one or two of Phil Gordon's poker books. He's an obsessive compulsive when it comes to odds.

 

[purbeast0]

Originally posted by: Garet Jax

Originally posted by: purbeast0
Why is the first number in the fraction changing from the turn to the river? that doesn't make sense unless the turn WAS a heart.

Remember you are calculating the odds of not making your flush so on the turn there are 9 hearts remaining. On the river there are still 9 hearts since you couldn't have pulled it.

The number on the denominator has been reduced since a card was drawn for the turn.

Yes you are just siding with me heh.

He calculates the odds as 9/47 * 8/46. one would think its 9/46.

 

[Garet Jax]

Originally posted by: purbeast0
Yes you are just siding with me heh.

He calculates the odds as 9/47 * 8/46. one would think its 9/46.

You are right - I missed that.

 

[purbeast0]

Originally posted by: Garet Jax

Originally posted by: z42
The most important thing to remember is to read your opponents. Don't get too caught up in the etiquette, though you should know the basic rules about raising, betting, etc. Try to learn them, but don't let them distract you from the most important thing which is the players.

If you are going to be playing low stakes ($200 buy in or less) the players will be terrible and will be giving away their hands left and right. Make sure you pay attention to the people playing the hands where you fold. If the really old guy that folds all the time raises you, you're going to lose 99/100 times. If the crazy guy who plays every hand raises you, you will have to call with a much wider range of hands.

Don't get me wrong, knowing proper etiquette is important, but knowing the players is where the $$ is.

100% agree. All these odds are worthless if pulling your card still results in you having the second best hand.

Yah I know exatly what you mean heh, cause there is always that guy when playing with my friends and stuff. Since we play with such low stakes people don't care as much.

heh and you hit it right on the head, I'm going with $200 to gamble with.

 

[Viper GTS]

Apparently you guys missed this part:

Originally posted by: Viper GTS

If you wanted to calculate the odds of a four flush on the river...

That's why the numerator changed in my second example.

Viper GTS