Poll: Where is this economy/country *really* going?

[Deleted member 4644]

Post in the SECOND poll and comment if you want.

Original poll was from 3/6/08.

Votes were
31%
42%
14%
11%

Votes as of about 10/06/2008 were:

32
43
13
11

 

[blackangst1]

The US will completely crumble. We will be a former shadow of ourselves. The whole country will resemble a refugee camp. And the rich will own everything.

 

[DaveSimmons]

A minor-to-medium hiccup, maybe a bit worse than the dot-bomb since so many people were using their equity as an ATM.

It will sort itself out in 1-4 years without a single gang of aussies in leather roaming the wastes looking for petrol.

 

[JS80]

Remember 1987? It's like that times 100x leverage.

 

[jonks]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104...omy-Getting-Worse.aspx

Gallup Daily: 84% of Americans Say Economy Getting Worse

 

[nullzero]

I voted for social upheaval but I am on the line with disaster it all depends on the american people and their behavior under hard times.

Like I have said before we have the perfect storm for a financial disaster. Here are some of the reasons; Declining USD, Credit Bubble Burst, Housing Bubble Burst, no savings, all time high debt, most costly war ever, and the list goes on.

 

[Deleted member 4644]

Originally posted by: sirjonk
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104...omy-Getting-Worse.aspx

Gallup Daily: 84% of Americans Say Economy Getting Worse

lol, we KNOW the economy is getting worse. The question is if it will become a meltdown.

 

[Fern]

Originally posted by: Deleted member 4644

Originally posted by: sirjonk
http://www.gallup.com/poll/104...omy-Getting-Worse.aspx

Gallup Daily: 84% of Americans Say Economy Getting Worse

lol, we KNOW the economy is getting worse. The question is if it will become a meltdown.

I don't believe it will be a meltdown. I think it's closer to a minor hiccup, maybe a big hiccup.

I'm mostly worried about the price of oil/gas and it's effect on the economy.

A weak dollar doesn't concern me much. It should help with the trade imbalance and drive exports. Last year exports really helped our GDP numbers.

Although I'd like to think it through more thoroughly, it seems to that higher gas prices will have an inflationary effect on the economy.

Inflation tends to increase the cost of new construction, which in turn drives up the value of existing homes. So, in a way higher fuel prices help the home credit/valuation problem.

OTOH, if we experience a recession with increased unemployment we'll likely have reduced demand for new or existing homes. That puts a downward pressure on the value of homes.

The other thing I'd worry about is bad weather reducing crops. That would hurt our trade imbalance (we export a lot of agri-crops) and a further increase in food prices.

Fern

 

[StageLeft]

Either 2 or 3, probably just 2. There are just too many bad things going on for the economy to not get bruised on this one.

 

[GroundedSailor]

I would say somewhere between 2 & 3, closer to 2.

You can't building a house of cards and not expect it (or some part of it) to collapse at some point.

 

[sandorski]

Worst of it will happen this year. 2-3 years of anemic growth, but things will normalize after that.

 

[Sinsear]

The sky is falling; we need to make the government bigger and create massive new social programs to save us.

 

[woodie1]

The US economy has weathered situations like we are currently in and come back stronger. No matter how bad it gets there are good times on the horizon. Right now it is hard to see how far out that horizon is. Biggest problem I see is the Government printing more and more money which reduces its value against the other world currencies.

 

[FoBoT]

i voted minor


but

i am getting a new gun safe for my birthday, then at least 3 guns and a crapload of ammo for them


and more food storage

but i just think its a normal recession, no jimmy carter level crisis yet

 

[Capt Caveman]

Soylent Green

 

[BoomerD]

I think it will be much more than the minor hiccup, but I HOPE it doesn't approach the levels indicated by choices 3 & 4.

 

[GrGr]

Originally posted by: nullzero
I voted for social upheaval but I am on the line with disaster it all depends on the american people and their behavior under hard times.

Like I have said before we have the perfect storm for a financial disaster. Here are some of the reasons; Declining USD, Credit Bubble Burst, Housing Bubble Burst, no savings, all time high debt, most costly war ever, and the list goes on.

I'm with this too. The USD is going to tank big time. There is no stopping it now. And when it does it will take a lot of the world economy with it. The US main export for decades has been the $. That game will soon be over.

The US cannot export both dollars and goods to fix it's trade deficits. As the dollar declines so does earnings for exports, as foreigners pay with ever shrinking dollars. And the US cannot turn the dollar policy around and build up the dollar again when the banking and financial system is so weak or the foreign Sovereign Wealth funds move in big time and buy up large sectors of core US financial systems.

The private banks that are the Fed don't want that to happen so they are playing the hyperinflation tune instead. Bai Bai US Gov dollah.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

I voted for Option #2. I was between #2 and #4 but I think #2 is more likely in the short term with #4 being possible in the future as a result of population explosion and Malthusian biology.

Why is #3 unlikely? Because I don't think that Americans will recognize that the nation has huge problems. They might know that we're in a recession but the government and the media won't call it a depression and folks will blame themselves for being unemployed or underemployed. The government and the media will gush over how wonderful the economy is and call it good and then say that the solution to our employment problems is more and better education. People will obtain college degrees and still be unemployed or underemployed but they'll blame themselves for not being good enough instead of blaming the government for its economic policies (notably those that exposed the nation to global labor arbitrage and mass immigration-driven population explosion). For that reason, I don't think we'll see social upheaval and unrest.

 

[Genx87]

Why do we act like the end of the world when the fed raises rate and our economy slows down? This is just a natural side effect our economic system. Ever 5-8 years of strong economic growth is followed by 1-3 years of a slow down.

 

[manowar821]

Number two has been happening for YEARS.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: Genx87
Why do we act like the end of the world when the fed raises rate and our economy slows down? This is just a natural side effect our economic system. Ever 5-8 years of strong economic growth is followed by 1-3 years of a slow down.

Because they hate themselves and want things to get worse for everybody to make themselves feel better.

 

[cumhail]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: Genx87
Why do we act like the end of the world when the fed raises rate and our economy slows down? This is just a natural side effect our economic system. Ever 5-8 years of strong economic growth is followed by 1-3 years of a slow down.

Because they hate themselves and want things to get worse for everybody to make themselves feel better.

Umm... I believe that's Moonbeam's line.

 

[piasabird]

Just go to a bus stop and see how many cars are parked there. People can not afford to drive to wrok more and more.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: piasabird
Just go to a bus stop and see how many cars are parked there. People can not afford to drive to wrok more and more.

Which is just such a horrible thing.

 

[Genx87]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: piasabird
Just go to a bus stop and see how many cars are parked there. People can not afford to drive to wrok more and more.

Which is just such a horrible thing.

Yeah that is terrible

Hell I would be excited if that happened in Minneapolis. Our public transit system costs a bunch of money and people barely use it.

They recently bragged about having the highest usership since 1984