AtenRa called it early. Have a couple of senior military commanders set up some very junior underlings for a big fall. Senior commanders get pardoned, junior underlings get executed, Islamicists purge all non-Islamicists from government, education, etc. Oh, and I owe Justoh an apology. Sorry, dude - you were right, I was wrong.
We need to firewall the Islamic nations before they introduce the world to the glories of the seventh century. None are salvageable, and our efforts to make them civilized just make it worse. No one in, no one out, except for verifiable Christians, atheists, and Hindus trying to get the hell out of, well, hell for good. No trade with them, no travel to them, no relationship with them, period. It will take a major international effort, an Apollo or World War II-level effort to wean ourselves from oil. That's the only way we avoid World War III.
The Saudis are probably our safest Islamic ally, mainly because they have a very large, very wealthy, and generally speaking very un-Islamic royal family. They depend on our weapons to keep them safe from their Islamic citizens AND on our military strength to keep them safe from their Islamic neighbors. So I don't think we need to fear that blowing up in our faces unless we do a Carter or some similarly major league stupidity and help Saudi Arabia go fundamentalist Islamic. However, because we need them as much as they need us, they are free to export Wahhabism (and general radical Islam) to the world, including to us. So even if that relationship never blows up in our faces, it's a slow stab in the back.I believe Saudi Arabia is the biggest buyer of our military hardware. It is said that this is more important to America now than the oil. I am totally convinced that arming the Saudis with our latest and greatest killing machines will never ever blow up in our faces. How could it?
The Saudis are probably our safest Islamic ally, mainly because they have a very large, very wealthy, and generally speaking very un-Islamic royal family. They depend on our weapons to keep them safe from their Islamic citizens AND on our military strength to keep them safe from their Islamic neighbors. So I don't think we need to fear that blowing up in our faces unless we do a Carter or some similarly major league stupidity and help Saudi Arabia go fundamentalist Islamic. However, because we need them as much as they need us, they are free to export Wahhabism (and general radical Islam) to the world, including to us. So even if that relationship never blows up in our faces, it's a slow stab in the back.
I think you may be right about the Saudis being our largest customer. It was Egypt, but I don't think they like us quite as much lately. lol
I believe Saudi Arabia is the biggest buyer of our military hardware. It is said that this is more important to America now than the oil. I am totally convinced that arming the Saudis with our latest and greatest killing machines will never ever blow up in our faces. How could it?
Just no. The House of Saud is the font of Wahhabi Islam. The Sauds have been attached to the Wahhabi movement since it came on the scene in the early 1800s. The Sauds fund the schools that crank out the nutjobs. Without the support of the House of Saud, the Wahhabi movement would be preaching its insane version of Islam to no one but sand fleas.The Saudis are probably our safest Islamic ally, mainly because they have a very large, very wealthy, and generally speaking very un-Islamic royal family.
Just no. The House of Saud is the font of Wahhabi Islam. The Sauds have been attached to the Wahhabi movement since it came on the scene in the early 1800s. The Sauds fund the schools that crank out the nutjobs. Without the support of the House of Saud, the Wahhabi movement would be preaching its insane version of Islam to no one but sand fleas.
OK, good questions.
First of all, let me introduce myself, who "Oric" is. I am almost 50 years old, have worked in important positions in corporate, most of my alumni and coworkers are in important positions including the government. I live in Turkey, travel abroad for business and leisure, I speak 5 languages and 3 of them fluent enough to read from source media.
Therefore i am not feeding myself from traditional mass media, I have enough network to "hear" who has done what. I am a frequent reader of P&N and as you may have noticed I don't write a lot, unless I can give some contribution.
About the US involvement and hard facts to prove it :
First of all, if you believe that there can be easily traceable evidence in international politics and manipulation, you are seriously mistaken. Nothing in the politics are 0 & 1's there are numerous shades of gray and switching of loyalties and pacts. Most of them are inaccessible for years after the event.
We have solid proof of American involvement in the 1980 coup, the famous "Our boys did it"
http://www.thefullwiki.org/1980_Turkish_coup_d'état. It is only common sense that US would like to control Turkey in way possible because it is too important for US Strategic interests for Turkey to drift on her own.
What we can incur without solid evidence, for 2016 attempt, is the clues that we can easily see :
(a) The coup was a genuine one, since 15th of July all the Political Parties have called for big rallies against the coup, condemning the FETO (Fetullah Terror Organization) as the mastermind behind the attempt. Erdogan did not have any popularity in the opposition before the attempt so any evidence otherwise would have been reflected in the opposition's statements
(b) As a member of NATO and a long standing candidate for EU, Turkey has a good record of free elections and a working democracy. Any elected government should receive what kind of a first response from the West ("self appointed Democracy & HR watcher of the globe")
- We condemn the treacherous attempt
- We support Turkish democracy and government
- Can we be of any assistance guys ?
What did come out ? (In the western media + official statements that were quiet hasty and late)
- Did Erdogan plan this coup ?
- Oh they are taking out the Generals that were our friends
- Are our A-Bombs safe in Turkey ?
- Are they torturing the coup attempters ?
etc.
Seldom I have come across articles that went deep into the story of what was happening in Turkey and little sympathy towards Turkish people who dared to stand in front of the tanks and firing soldiers (260 civilians died in 6 hours)
So, when one thinks "Why does a failed coup attempt in Turkey is portrayed as a fascist Islamist government's victory", using simple logic tells us either the Western States and Media are incredibly naive or they were very symphatetic to the coup attempt
(c) The perpatrators : Most of the generals and high ranks in the coup had long careers in NATO assignments, there are a lot of questions behind this coincidence. It is no secret that Turkish politics are a balance in between pro-USA and pro-Eurasian. This is not a religious vs secular divide, this is more on the long term stance of the country.
(d) Fetullah Gulen : This old cleric is living in the USA, his organization has opened schools around 100 countries and seems to support a light version of Sharia. His organization started during the cold war and was supported by CIA to penetrate into Africa and Asia with a different (non Western/Christian) face. His schools were closed and banned in some countries because of this hidden cause. His pupil has infiltrated almost all governmental structures in Turkey and ousted any other citizen/personell not belonging to their movement. Although his involvement was known for decades, the conservative governments always regarded well educated guys from his movement as an asset. Until they lost total control. His residence in an ally country is a good clue about the forces behind him. We know that rules and regulations are minor nuicance if he wasn't a pawn for the State of America
About Obama : No US President has a 100% say over the run of the state politics, Gulen movement is at least 45 years old, he had to choose among the options presented to him, I assume.
Thx.
That's true. My point was that the Saudi royal family tends to spend a lot of time in Paris, Brazil, etc. drinking and partying. Sponsoring the Wahhabi movement is their way of keeping the fanatics at less than critical mass. That's why I said that while it probably won't blow up in our faces unless we do something stupid, it's a slow stab in the back. While we can count on the Saudis more than any other Islamic government, the price for that is their export of Wahabism.Just no. The House of Saud is the font of Wahhabi Islam. The Sauds have been attached to the Wahhabi movement since it came on the scene in the early 1800s. The Sauds fund the schools that crank out the nutjobs. Without the support of the House of Saud, the Wahhabi movement would be preaching its insane version of Islam to no one but sand fleas.
On a purely side note, it would be interesting to know if they carried through with their proposed reforms after Khafji. Their supposed elite National Guard mechanized brigade displayed a disturbing tendency to stay in their V150's rather than deploy in the attack, and their well-equipped armored forced didn't deploy at all, leaving the attack (and defense) to the very enthusiastic Qataris in their utterly crap AMX-30 tanks.I wouldn't be so quick to see the Sa'udis as a homogeneous entity. They have factions within government just like we do. And like it or not the ulema and the Royal family often do not see eye to eye. Add into that the constant flux of dozens of princes and influential families all jockeying for power and influence. It's not as absolute of a monarchy in some ways as you might think.
That's not to say they don't have hardcore Wahabi nutjobs, they do, but that's just one of the reasons they're sketchy. World class corruption and nepotism factor into it as well, which equals risk for allies due to their tendency to disgruntle the populace.
Have to say I disagree on your take with the hypothetical absence on the Sa'udis. Islamic fundies travel, it's an integral facet of jihad. Also, Qatar is right next door. I'm sure there are some al-Thanis who wouldn't mind taking over things from some of their like-minded cousins. They're not exactly strapped for cash these days.
As of right now, I'll have to agree with possum simply because they have been purchasing American gear that few others can afford, and in quantity. Personally I think their military, particularly the Air Force, gets a bad rep due to the nepotism I mentioned earlier, but they also have some experienced talent there as well. They're no IDF, but they're not useless either. Just ask the Houthi.
That's true. My point was that the Saudi royal family tends to spend a lot of time in Paris, Brazil, etc. drinking and partying. Sponsoring the Wahhabi movement is their way of keeping the fanatics at less than critical mass. That's why I said that while it probably won't blow up in our faces unless we do something stupid, it's a slow stab in the back. While we can count on the Saudis more than any other Islamic government, the price for that is their export of Wahabism.
Interesting fact I want to share with you. Like 80 years ago in Europe, some guy - a great speaker btw - got elected by the general populace and began shutting down the media. He then orchestrated a purge and eliminated all of his enemies. He also blamed a bunch of people in the process, which turned messy. Let me tell you though, the people LOVED him. Oh my gosh did they ever love him. He had huge banners, big displays, and had everyone wearing these crisp uniforms. Interesting stuff.
I guess you Turks never heard of him though. He spoke German.
For the past decade, the US intelligence agencies operating in Turkey have worked closely with the increasingly influential parallel government of Fethullah Gulen. Their approach to power was, until recently, a permeationist strategy, of covertly taking over political, economic, administrative, judicial, media, military and cultural positions gradually without resort to elections or military coups. They adopted flexible tactics, supporting and shedding different allies to eliminate rivals.
In 2010 in support of Erdogan, they played a major role in arresting and purging 300 Kemalist – military officials. Subsequently the Gulenists moved to prosecute and weaken the Erdogan regime via revelations of family corruption uncovered by their intelligence officials and publicized by its mass media outlets.
The Gulenists shared several important policies with Washington which favored “the convergence” that led up to the July 15, 2016 coup.
The Gulenists backed US-Israeli policies in the Middle East; opposed the ‘independent’ and erratic power projections of Erdogan; favored pro-Western free market policies; accepted US relations with the Kurds; rejected any accommodation with the Russians.
In other words, the Gulenists were far more reliable, dependent and subject to the dictates of EU-NATO-US policy throughout the Middle East than the Erdogan regime.
Erdogan was aware of the growing power of the Gulenists and their growing links to Washington. Erdogan moved decisively and successfully, to pre-empt the Gulenist power grab by forcing a premature coup.
Erdogan Power Bloc Defeats Gulenist Presence
The Gulenists were a powerful force in the Turkish state and civil society. They had a strong presence in the civil bureaucracy; among sectors of the military, the mass media and educational installations; and among technocrats in the financial agencies. Yet they were defeated in less than twenty-four hours, because Erdogan had several undeniable strengths.
First and foremost, Erdogan was an unmatched political leader with a strategy to retain power and a powerful active mass popular base. The Gulenists had nothing comparable.
Erdogan had a superior intelligence and military command which infiltrated and undermined the Gulenists who were totally unprepared for a violent confrontation.
The Gulenists ‘permeationist’ strategy was unprepared and totally incapable of seizing power and mobilizing ‘the street’.
They lacked the cadres and organized grass roots support which Erdogan had built from the bottom-up over the previous two decades.
Erdogan’s insider and outside Islamic-Nationalist strategy was far superior to the Gulenist insider-pro-US liberal strategy.
US Miscalculations in the Coup
The Gulenists depended on US support, which totally miscalculated the relations of power and misread Erdogan’s capacity to preempt the coup.
The major flaw among the US advisers was their ignorance of the Turkish political equation: they underestimated Erdogan’s overwhelming party, electoral and mass support. The CIA overestimated the Gulenists support in their institutional elite structures and underestimated their political isolation in Turkish society.
Moreover, the US military had no sense of the specifications of Turkish political culture – the general popular opposition to a military-bureaucratic takeover. They failed to recognize that the anti-coup forces included political parties and social movements critical of Erdogan.
The US strategists based the coup on their misreading of the military coups in Egypt, Libya, Iraq and Yemen which ousted nationalist and Islamic civilian regimes.
Erdogan was not vulnerable in the same way as President Mohamed Morsi (June 30, 2012 – July 3, 2013) was in Egypt – he controlled intelligence, military and mass supporters.
The US-Gulenists military intelligence strategy was unplanned, uncoordinated and precipitous – Erdogan’s counter-coup forced their hand and struck decisive, sweeping blows that demoralized the entire Gulenist super-structure. Thousands of supporters fell like clay pigeons.
The US was put on the defensive – the rapid dissolution of their followers forced them to disown their allies and fall back on general, unconvincing ‘humanitarian’ and ‘security’ criticisms of Erdogan. Their claims that the Erdogan purge would weaken the fight against ISIS had no influence in Turkey. Washington’s charges that the arrests were ‘mistreating and abusing’ prisoners had no impact.
The key political fact is that the US backed an uprising which had taken up arms and killed Erdogan loyalist military personel and innocent unarmed civilians opposed to the coup undermined Washington’s feeble protests.
In the end the US even refused refugee status and abandoned their Gulenist General’s to Erdogan’s fate. Only Fethullah Gulen himself was protected from extradition by his State Department handlers.
Consequences of the US-Gulen Coup
Washington’s failure to bring down Erdogan could have enormous repercussions throughout the Middle East, Western Europe and the United States.
Erdogan ordered seven thousand troops to encircle the strategic NATO airbase in Incirlik, Turkey, an act of intimidation threatening to undermine NATO’s major nuclear facility and operational base against Syria, Iraq and Russia.
Turkish intelligence and cabinet officials have called into question ongoing political alliances, openly accusing the US military of treason for its role in the coup.
Erdogan has moved to reconcile relations with Russia and has distanced his ties with the European Union.
If Turkey downgrades its ties with NATO, the US would lose its strategic ally on the Southern flank of Russia and undermine its capacity to dominate Syria and Iraq.
Washington’s leverage in Turkey has been dramatically reduced with the decimation of the Gulenist power base in the civilian and military organizations.
Washington may have to rely on the anemic, unstable and servile Syriza – Tsipras regime in Greece to ‘anchor’ its policies in the region.
The failed coup means a major retreat for Washington in the region – and a possible advance for Syria, Iran, Lebanon and Russia.
You do realize that you are descending into the conspiracy theorist hole now don't you?
I did not read this article and bring it here because it was an interesting theory. I posted it here because it was a good long English description of the ACTUAL events that have happened in my country ..
You don't work in a technical field do you?
Of course you can deny or shake your head in disbelief ... I am not here to bring evidence, just sharing what is REALLY happening in my country with P&N. As I have stated before, I am not biased against USA nor I don't like Erdogan a bit but I have to be pragmatic and have an open mind to understand the complex set of politics and covert wars around me.
I'm still waiting on a coup-->purge narrative that actually makes sense. Are these 100k+ teachers all supposed to be treasonously aligned with american interests? If so, how does just firing them from their job help anything, if they're an immediate threat & serious "cancer" that destabilizes the very social fabric?I did not read this article and bring it here because it was an interesting theory. I posted it here because it was a good long English description of the ACTUAL events that have happened in my country ..
I am not going into "proof or or you are a liar !" game. I don't have to convince you, readers of P&N can read my perspective, that is enough for me.
I'm still waiting on a coup-->purge narrative that actually makes sense. Are these 100k+ teachers all supposed to be treasonously aligned with american interests? If so, how does just firing them from their job help anything, if they're an immediate threat & serious "cancer" that destabilizes the very social fabric?
Democratic leaders who follow the rule of law don't carry out rather vindictive "justice" via guilt by association.
If you don't know that those teachers, policeman, officers got their jobs, titles, positions by cheating in the exams, working in coordination to mob, harass the others, favour their kind ... You can say that it is the unfair act of one leader against these people. Actually nobody, I repeat nobody is shedding a tear after the 100K that have been stripped of their titles because they have done worse in the past to others. They had the political support and protection back in those days, not anymore.
I wonder if you are still in belief that the coup was a staged one ? Last Sunday there was a big rally with over a million people in Istanbul, where major political party leaders stood side by side by their will and gave speeches for the favor of democracy. These political leaders are no friends of Erdogan and would stay away if there was any doubt of foul play.
It is sad to see the silence of the West in an attempt against a democracy because they don't like the elected leader. Still questioning why the coup attempters are treated unfairly. Here is a video for you to watch ...
warning the "banned in USA title" is click bait
Are you also implying that it's wise to show discontent after Erdogan just showed what happens to people who might not be loyal?