Possibly Israeli strike on Iran fraught with logistical difficulties.

XX55XX

Member
Mar 1, 2010
177
0
0
Read an interesting article on Israel's military capacity to strike Iran today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/20/w...ask-for-israeli-military.html?pagewanted=1&hp

If they do strike, the Iranians might end up attacking us in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing us to finish off the Israelis' dirty work and leading to yet another war in the Middle East.

I think the Israelis might be counting on us to finish the job by dragging us into it. They don't have the necessary power to do this on their own. And even then, a strike is a temporary reprieve. The Iranians will be back in a few years, angry, and with a bomb in their hands.
 

Mxylplyx

Diamond Member
Mar 21, 2007
4,197
101
106
I don't think Israel has the capability to carry out a strike of any lasting significance on Iran. The political fallout from any such strike would far out weight any strategic gain. Since Iran is mining it's own uranium, I'm sure the unique radiation signature of it is known to Israel, so any rogue nuclear weapon that happened to explode in Israel would be traceable, as would of course any direct attack. I think Israel will just have to settle on MAD to keep Iran in check.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
I note three things, (1) we have many times before war gamed on this forum what Israel can do to Iran. And what Iran can do to defend itself and then to counter attack Israel. Point granted, Israel has the conventional and nuclear capacity power to really make Iran hurt. (2) Its impossible to calculate the long term consequences of such an Israeli attack on Iran. Not only is the question what Iran would do, there is the larger question of what all the surrounding Arab nations would do in a far longer terms in terms of opting to opt for an Western oil embargo. (3) And when most nations in the world are invested in a diplomatic solution to a Iranian suspected Nuclear weapons ambition, why should the wider world permit a tiny nations like Israel to set world policy?

When the more probably result will be for the wider world, to let the wider world start a military and economic embargo against Israel instead. And let Israel pay the price for their delusions of Grander.

After all Israel has extremely dirty hands regarding it treatment of Palestinians
 

Dari

Lifer
Oct 25, 2002
17,134
38
91
We all know that Saudi Arabia and Iraq are pussies, but for different reasons. Therefore, I wonder what Turkey would do should the Israelis decide to use their airspace...
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
When the more probably result will be for the wider world, to let the wider world start a military and economic embargo against Israel instead. And let Israel pay the price for their delusions of Grander.

I'll type slowly.

This....is....never....going....to....happen.

It's what you might like, but if Iran decides to shut down oil shipping by military means it isn't Israel that's going to get the sharp end of the sword.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
It'd be like swatting a hornets' nest with a stick, waiting around to see what happens next...

The first thing that happens is that IAEA inspectors are on the next plane out w/o enough time to pick up their toothbrushes. After that, it's hard to say, but the Iranians will obviously set out in earnest to create nukes, bet on that. Once attacked, they'll have no trouble obtaining advanced anti aircraft capabilities, either, since such weapons are purely defensive. Nor would they need to show any restraint in attacking Israeli assets wherever & however they can, for as long as it takes.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,982
3,318
126
I note three things, (1) we have many times before war gamed on this forum what Israel can do to Iran. And what Iran can do to defend itself and then to counter attack Israel. Point granted, Israel has the conventional and nuclear capacity power to really make Iran hurt. -- first of all nothing has been decided on these forums as to what Israel can or cannot do.......what has been decided is that Israel would never ever use nuclear weapons unless her very existence is at stake......thats a given!

(2) Its impossible to calculate the long term consequences of such an Israeli attack on Iran. Not only is the question what Iran would do, there is the larger question of what all the surrounding Arab nations would do in a far longer terms in terms of opting to opt for an Western oil embargo. --If Israel launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran using conventional weapons( that were not nuclear) the surrounding Arab countries would applaud and congratulate Israel! You are forgetting that Iran is hated more than Israel by it`s neighbors!


(3) And when most nations in the world are invested in a diplomatic solution to a Iranian suspected Nuclear weapons ambition, why should the wider world permit a tiny nations like Israel to set world policy? -- also knowing full well that just recently there has been a call and a pledge to suppoort those who would commit terrorist acts against israel...you still eating those potent shrooms??

When the more probably result will be for the wider world, to let the wider world start a military and economic embargo against Israel instead. And let Israel pay the price for their delusions of Grander. -- never happen and I hear that the potent shroom cause dilusions of gradeur....

After all Israel has extremely dirty hands regarding it treatment of Palestinians -- and vice a verse....

shalom!!
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
It'd be like swatting a hornets' nest with a stick, waiting around to see what happens next...

The first thing that happens is that IAEA inspectors are on the next plane out w/o enough time to pick up their toothbrushes. After that, it's hard to say, but the Iranians will obviously set out in earnest to create nukes, bet on that. Once attacked, they'll have no trouble obtaining advanced anti aircraft capabilities, either, since such weapons are purely defensive. Nor would they need to show any restraint in attacking Israeli assets wherever & however they can, for as long as it takes.

It's hardly credible that Iran has no interest in nukes. They aren't able to produce them now, but Imadinnerjacket would love to have his hands on him and his handlers wouldn't mind it at all. Make no mistake, if the Iranians tried to remove the current government in earnest we'd have a Syria x20.

What would Iran do with them? They needn't do anything really other than use them to change the power structure in the region to favor itself. Considering that they are about to kill someone who created pic hosting software because someone else could post porn their rationality isn't something I trust, and neither does Israel or come to think of it pretty much anyone else.

Now they could attack Israel, but if the latter felt severely threatened as it seems some hope, Israel has the nuclear option in a very real and deadly sense.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
If Israel launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran using conventional weapons( that were not nuclear) the surrounding Arab countries would applaud and congratulate Israel! You are forgetting that Iran is hated more than Israel by it`s neighbors!

That assertion is w/o merit, a propaganda construct established on thin air, but you already knew that.

None of Israel's neighbors would object to Israeli invasion of their airspace with dozens of planes, right?
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
If Israel attacks iran why would iran immediately turn and attack us? Im not saying they are super smart but i would think it would be best not to poke the world super power.
 

Jhhnn

IN MEMORIAM
Nov 11, 1999
62,365
14,681
136
It's hardly credible that Iran has no interest in nukes. They aren't able to produce them now, but Imadinnerjacket would love to have his hands on him and his handlers wouldn't mind it at all. Make no mistake, if the Iranians tried to remove the current government in earnest we'd have a Syria x20.

What would Iran do with them? They needn't do anything really other than use them to change the power structure in the region to favor itself. Considering that they are about to kill someone who created pic hosting software because someone else could post porn their rationality isn't something I trust, and neither does Israel or come to think of it pretty much anyone else.

Now they could attack Israel, but if the latter felt severely threatened as it seems some hope, Israel has the nuclear option in a very real and deadly sense.

Well, if we want Iran to pursue nuclear weapons in earnest, rather than just establishing the means to do so, all we need to do is allow the Israelis to attack. It's really simple.

On her own, Israel is incapable of preventing that in the long term, should Iran make that decision. They simply don't have the resources to do so. That's every bit as simple. They can, however, force that decision onto the Iranians by attacking.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
If Israel attacks iran why would iran immediately turn and attack us? Im not saying they are super smart but i would think it would be best not to poke the world super power.

Not sure who you are addressing but Iran won't directly attack us any more than any other nuclear power which wants to throw it's weight around. That does not mean it won't retaliate in more oblique ways. Consider that they threaten sea traffic when it suits them and if there were a conflict they might do so if they believe they have a means of delivering their nuclear weapons. After all a key reason to have them is to allow more provocative action without fear of retaliation. The art if you will is to know the limits of that. The US, USSR and now China know how to play. Iran? They expel political opponents on the basis of witchcraft and I've already mentioned the pending execution of the programmer. They aren't super smart as you say, and a bit crazy. No one likes a loon with a nuke.
 

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,947
126
If they do strike, the Iranians might end up attacking us in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing us to finish off the Israelis' dirty work and leading to yet another war in the Middle East.
.

Not sure who you are addressing but Iran won't directly attack us any more than any other nuclear power which wants to throw it's weight around. That does not mean it won't retaliate in more oblique ways. Consider that they threaten sea traffic when it suits them and if there were a conflict they might do so if they believe they have a means of delivering their nuclear weapons. After all a key reason to have them is to allow more provocative action without fear of retaliation. The art if you will is to know the limits of that. The US, USSR and now China know how to play. Iran? They expel political opponents on the basis of witchcraft and I've already mentioned the pending execution of the programmer. They aren't super smart as you say, and a bit crazy. No one likes a loon with a nuke.

Sorry i should of quoted the op. I was responding to that.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
To Haybasusa Rider, I will type this very slowly, you may consider your self omnipotent, but I find your reasoning less than compelling and not representative of the thinking of a larger world.

But your latest statement of "It's hardly credible that Iran has no interest in nukes. They aren't able to produce them now" as totally ridiculous and it shows how out of touch with reality you are.

Because that is exactly the $64,000 question, because if Iran only intends to purse a nuclear energy program for electrical power generation, its 100% legal by UN doctrine. Meanwhile even Leon Pinhead flat out states, not only is Iran acting rationally, but Iran is more than a year away from even reaching a decision point when Iran can even remotely consider going on to develop nuclear weapons. And the it will take another year or two for Iran to refine enough weapons grade U235 to produce its first nuke.

Meanwhile Haybasusa, you seemingly understand nothing about the politics of Iran, because Achmadinejhad, for all his motor mouth bluster has no real political power inside Iran, because its the religious mullahs who actually call the political shots. And even if Iran gives its Mullah's the old heave ho, the Iranian people are 100% behind a peacetime program to develop nuclear energy.

While many major powers are still committed to finding a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear questions. And if Israel acts unilaterally and totally irrationally, the larger world may decide the safest response, is to muzzle the Israeli pit bull and let Israel suffer the consequences of its own stupidity.

Because if Israeli stupidity and greed even slows the flow of oil in the Persian Gulf, the larger world will blame Israel for upsetting the apple cart.
 

cybrsage

Lifer
Nov 17, 2011
13,021
0
0
Anyone who thinks Iran does not want nuclear weapons is being stupid on purpose. Seriously...ANY nation in Iran's position would want nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons make you invasion proof.

This does not mean Iran wants nuclear weapons for offense, which is where many people jump off the deep end. Iran also would not give them to terrorists. As others have said it is too easy to trace the source of the bomb.

Iran wants nuclear weapons to prevent invasion by the US. If I was the leadership of Iran, I would want nukes too. It makes sense for them. The only other alternative is to do as the US demands in all things...which they obviously refuse to do.
 

Texashiker

Lifer
Dec 18, 2010
18,811
197
106
Iran having the majority of their nuclear program inside a mountain nullifies an air strike.

Israel is going to have to destroy an entire mountain if they want to stop Iran.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
To Haybasusa Rider, I will type this very slowly, you may consider your self omnipotent, but I find your reasoning less than compelling and not representative of the thinking of a larger world.

The word you are looking for is omniscient, but I am neither. I do however have a better track record than you regarding outcomes of my predictions. Consider that past forecasts of sanctions against Israel have not materialized, that while tensions increase between the US and Israel, it is Iran which has taken action against the Western world in recent times. Iran is being sanctioned and ratcheting up tensions by threatening Europe right now. Between Israel and Iran which is getting the most attention based on it's actions affecting those outside the region? It's Iran. Sorry, but those are the facts. It doesn't require one to be all knowing, just the ability to absorb the day to day goings on in the world.

But your latest statement of "It's hardly credible that Iran has no interest in nukes. They aren't able to produce them now" as totally ridiculous and it shows how out of touch with reality you are.
Not according to the IAEA report of last November of which I'll quote a BBC (hardly Fox News) reference-

The IAEA has long expressed concern about Iran's nuclear programme, but its latest report (November 2011) lays out the case in much greater detail than before.

Drawing on evidence provided by more than 10 member states as well as its own information, the IAEA said Iran had carried out activities "relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device".

It said that some of these activities could only be used to develop nuclear weapons - though it did not say that Iran had mastered the process, nor how long it would take Iran to make a bomb.

The report documents alleged Iranian testing of explosives, experiments on detonating a nuclear weapon, and work on weaponisation - the processes by which a device might be adapted and hardened to fit into the nose-section of a missile.

There are some allegations that are listed openly for the first time, including the claim that Iran has used computer modelling on the behaviour of a nuclear device.

Previously, the IAEA complained that Tehran had not fully co-operated with its inspectors, though it did say that Iran had displayed "greater transparency" during an inspection visit in August 2011.

Link to the above

My contention is based on real world assessments by experts who have no interest in nation building or Bush paranoia. Now if you have better expert sources this would be the time to reveal them.

Because that is exactly the $64,000 question, because if Iran only intends to purse a nuclear energy program for electrical power generation, its 100% legal by UN doctrine. Meanwhile even Leon Pinhead flat out states, not only is Iran acting rationally, but Iran is more than a year away from even reaching a decision point when Iran can even remotely consider going on to develop nuclear weapons. And the it will take another year or two for Iran to refine enough weapons grade U235 to produce its first nuke.

As I have said the IAEA disagrees with your "only" point so "100% legal" doesn't have much bearing on the facts as laid out. Regarding "Pinhead", he does not want Israel launching a unilateral military action against Iran, but neither has he sided with the Iranians against the majority of the western world. You'll be hard pressed to find him unconcerned as a rule.
That said, "a year away from making a decision"? What physical process in the universe keeps people from making a choice now? There isn't one. They may be a year away from having the ability to establish a working program and at that point they have the option of doing so or not, but as evidence suggests they clearly have an interest. Making a decision to have groundwork laid for a physical program is a decision. That it may take time to have a working weapon is irrelevant, of course it won't spring forth from the ground.

Meanwhile Haybasusa, you seemingly understand nothing about the politics of Iran, because Achmadinejhad, for all his motor mouth bluster has no real political power inside Iran, because its the religious mullahs who actually call the political shots. And even if Iran gives its Mullah's the old heave ho, the Iranian people are 100% behind a peacetime program to develop nuclear energy.

Again you would be mistaken. I'm familiar with the goings on from the Pahlavi dynasty forward. I don't have to google Kermit Roosevelt or Mohammad Mosaddegh or Winston Churchill and BPs involvement. I understand cause and effect. I realize our part in creating Iran as it is today. How the Iranian people were supportive of us above all other Islamic nations after 9/11. I get that Bush took a moment of tangible hope and crushed it with his "Axis" speech which put Imadinnerjacket and his ilk in firm control of a nation and a people who were reaching out to us. I also know the people in charge now and how one of the top three most influential people in Iran has announced support of third parties that can be used against Israel and if need be others. I know the official power of the Presidency and that the office has influence over the lives of the people of Iran. The leadership has crushed it's own people and if necessary would slaughter them to stay in power much like is happening in Syria now. Why you defend such a government is something you have to answer for, but there is a clear distinction among most rational people between the government and the people of Iran. Do you even know Iranians personally? Have you talked with Jews who escaped from takeover by the clerics? Do you know any of the lives ruined by SAVAK? Do you care about a power who will kill someone for writing software for pic hosting?

No, it seems you know that the Iranian government is a benign entity who only has peaceful intentions and no doubt it's peoples best interest at heart although it has acted demonstrably contrary to that idea. Regardless of how this group of despots came to be, they are there now and they will do what it takes to secure their position and that does not exclude nuclear weapon production. I've given evidence against the contention that nuclear energy production is the sole intent of those who kill their own citizens who protest for freedom, now you have the opportunity to do the same. Can you cite equivalent experts to back up your point? Can you provide some grounds for the idea of a benevolent leadership? Will you refute the words of those in power who have announced for active support of terrorism? I wonder.

While many major powers are still committed to finding a diplomatic solution to the Iranian nuclear questions. And if Israel acts unilaterally and totally irrationally, the larger world may decide the safest response, is to muzzle the Israeli pit bull and let Israel suffer the consequences of its own stupidity.

If Israel acts now it will create a lot if headaches for those working diplomatically. Now I have the IAEA backing up my point. What do you have that Israel is going to act unilaterally and irrationally as things stand? Israel has it's own sources of information and not being omnipresent (might as well finish up the whole deity qualification thing) I don't know what is planned. If they attack I want to see good reason for it. I won't give a pass on supposition. Now if the time comes and there is evidence that Iran was seeking nuclear weapons with the intent of moving against Israel, would that matter to you? I don't know what Iran plans to do with it's future nuclear capability and at this time I do not believe the intent is a first strike, but suppose for sake of argument it was? Would you then object to Israel removing the threat? Will the world put the muzzle on Israel? I think not.

Because if Israeli stupidity and greed even slows the flow of oil in the Persian Gulf, the larger world will blame Israel for upsetting the apple cart.

Israel isn't going to slow the flow of oil. That is a decision that Iran will make independent of Israel. If one barrel less flows it will be because the one person you can spell correctly, the President of Iran, and his masters wish it to be so. If that happens people who matter won't be looking at Israel, it will be at those who order it to be so. That would be the leadership of Iran.

I have some affection for the people who I know who came from Iran, who escaped tyranny in different forms across the decades. I believe that the Iranian people as a whole are a good people, that they have suffered at the hands of others, that we created a path that they could not avoid in terms of leadership. Notwithstanding that I recognize that their leadership is corrupt and evil. Yes that old fashioned moral judgment word, evil. That it exists is evidenced by the works against people by their leaders and if you wish to dispute what those in charge have done to those in Iran then you have a hard row to hoe.

I do not believe them, I have nothing to suggest I should, I have history to demonstrate their abuses. I accuse the leaders of Iran as betraying their people, of oppressing them as they will, of subjugation.

Trust them at your peril.
 

EagleKeeper

Discussion Club Moderator<br>Elite Member
Staff member
Oct 30, 2000
42,591
5
0
Iran having the majority of their nuclear program inside a mountain nullifies an air strike.

Israel is going to have to destroy an entire mountain if they want to stop Iran.

All they have to do is collapse the egress points.

Already identified for GPS accuracy and lasered backup
 

Texashiker

Lifer
Dec 18, 2010
18,811
197
106
All they have to do is collapse the egress points.

Already identified for GPS accuracy and lasered backup

That is only going to slow things down a little bit.

Get the bulldozers in there, clean things up, and they are back in business.
 

Hayabusa Rider

Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
Jan 26, 2000
50,879
4,266
126
That is only going to slow things down a little bit.

Get the bulldozers in there, clean things up, and they are back in business.

Rinse, repeat.

The current leadership of Iran has proven it's cruelty to it's own people. If Iran one day has nuclear weapons I hope it's controlled by a people who have a say in their government, free from those who embrace the horrors they can cause so readily.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,982
3,318
126
That assertion is w/o merit, a propaganda construct established on thin air, but you already knew that. -- I do not know that in fact it is you qwho has no idea.....

None of Israel's neighbors would object to Israeli invasion of their airspace with dozens of planes, right? -- I am sorry to inform you but there are Arab nations that would turn a blind eye to anything israel did if it concerned attacking Iran....sorry to burst your bubble...
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,982
3,318
126
The current leadership of Iran has proven it's cruelty to it's own people. If Iran one day has nuclear weapons I hope it's controlled by a people who have a say in their government, free from those who embrace the horrors they can cause so readily.
:thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup::thumbsup:
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
3
0
At least one thing we agree on, Hayabusa, "Trust them at your peril."

But I refer to the IAEA, who went on records as saying, Saddam had WMD in 2002. If they were 100% wrong then, what does that say about the IAEA's credibility? And sad to say, when the USA puts pressure on the IAEA, the poobahs in the IAEA have a nasty habit of pandering to power. And as I and other rational people look at what the IAEA actually have as evidence that Iran is pursuing nukes at this point, the actual evidence looks very flimsy to me. As Leon Pinnetta also says that Iranian nucleat decision point is a year or more away.

Beyond that, if Israel sneak attacks Iran, its almost impossible to guess what will happen as Iran would be 100% justified in striking back in retaliation. And the other huge joker in the deck is how other Arab nations and terrorist groups would react.

As for the question of who has the best prediction record, I feel that almost all my predictions are starting to happen, but not as fast as I would have assumed.

But one thing is sure, Israel is far worse off to day than it was one year ago, and worse off than it was 3 years ago, 6 years ago, or a decade ago. But as Bozo Netanyuhu gets increasingly desperate, its very hard to anyone to predict future end consequences.
 
Last edited:
sale-70-410-exam    | Exam-200-125-pdf    | we-sale-70-410-exam    | hot-sale-70-410-exam    | Latest-exam-700-603-Dumps    | Dumps-98-363-exams-date    | Certs-200-125-date    | Dumps-300-075-exams-date    | hot-sale-book-C8010-726-book    | Hot-Sale-200-310-Exam    | Exam-Description-200-310-dumps?    | hot-sale-book-200-125-book    | Latest-Updated-300-209-Exam    | Dumps-210-260-exams-date    | Download-200-125-Exam-PDF    | Exam-Description-300-101-dumps    | Certs-300-101-date    | Hot-Sale-300-075-Exam    | Latest-exam-200-125-Dumps    | Exam-Description-200-125-dumps    | Latest-Updated-300-075-Exam    | hot-sale-book-210-260-book    | Dumps-200-901-exams-date    | Certs-200-901-date    | Latest-exam-1Z0-062-Dumps    | Hot-Sale-1Z0-062-Exam    | Certs-CSSLP-date    | 100%-Pass-70-383-Exams    | Latest-JN0-360-real-exam-questions    | 100%-Pass-4A0-100-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-300-135-exams-date    | Passed-200-105-Tech-Exams    | Latest-Updated-200-310-Exam    | Download-300-070-Exam-PDF    | Hot-Sale-JN0-360-Exam    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Exams    | 100%-Pass-JN0-360-Real-Exam-Questions    | Dumps-JN0-360-exams-date    | Exam-Description-1Z0-876-dumps    | Latest-exam-1Z0-876-Dumps    | Dumps-HPE0-Y53-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-HPE0-Y53-Exam    | 100%-Pass-HPE0-Y53-Real-Exam-Questions    | Pass-4A0-100-Exam    | Latest-4A0-100-Questions    | Dumps-98-365-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-98-365-Exam    | 100%-Pass-VCS-254-Exams    | 2017-Latest-VCS-273-Exam    | Dumps-200-355-exams-date    | 2017-Latest-300-320-Exam    | Pass-300-101-Exam    | 100%-Pass-300-115-Exams    |
http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    | http://www.portvapes.co.uk/    |