Post your 2020 EC result prediction. Here's mine.

[Amused]

Here is how I think the EC will play out in November.

Play with the map, screen shot it and post yours.


WIN10 has this new nifty snip shot tool. (Winkey+shift+s)

Makes posting the map so easy.

Consensus Electoral Map with no Toss-ups - 270toWin

Based on the consensus ratings of a number of different forecasts.

www.270towin.com

 

[vi edit]

I'll take that bet, minus NC.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I'll take that bet, minus NC.

Pretty much my guess. Swap Ohio and NC around.

 

[Amused]

I'll take that bet, minus NC.

Would you say this is more likely?

 

[Amused]

WIN10 has this new nifty snip shot tool. (Winkey+shift+s)

Makes posting the map so easy.

 

[Jhhnn]

I'll add Florida, maybe Georgia, Ohio & Iowa as well.

 

[Amused]

This is the highest potential blowout I see as possible:

 

[Fenixgoon]

I'll add Florida, maybe Georgia, Ohio & Iowa as well.

Predicting more of a Biden blowout?

 

[IronWing]

I don't think Biden will carry Arizona or North Carolina but I think he will get Ohio. I can't quite see Biden winning Texas but that would be my next state to tip his way.

 

[Jhhnn]

Predicting more of a Biden blowout?

It's entirely possible. Turnout for Biden will be huge.

 

[Amused]

I don't think Biden will carry Arizona or North Carolina but I think he will get Ohio. I can't quite see Biden winning Texas but that would be my next state to tip his way.

View attachment 30711

Biden has, with near consistency, beat the margin of error in AZ.

Arizona Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[snoopy7548]

Here's mine. All aboard the MAGA Train! Woo wooooooooooooo!

 

[nickqt]

If Biden, 290-248

If Trump, 278-260

 

[Wreckem]

Predicting more of a Biden blowout?

A Biden blowout or a narrow Trump victory have about the same chance of happening. Based on senate polling a Biden blowout is looking far more likely. Based on current Senate polling a Biden blow out could be over 400 electoral college votes.

IMHO in red states the Dems flip Senate Seats Biden has a 50/50 shot of picking them up. Amused map is the blowout scenario.

 

[ultimatebob]

Here's my projection:



Yeah, I think that it's going to be close, and we're going to have to wait awhile for a final tally.

 

[Jhhnn]

I see this as highly likely-

 

[Wreckem]

My crazy ass guesses are this.

Polling error is actually in Bidens favor he wins popular vote by 10-12% and he wins over 400 EC votes.

Polling error is in Trumps favor and he eeks a small electoral vote victory while Biden wins popular vote by ~3%.

Both of these scenarios have roughly the same probability of happening. Neither is the most likely scenario.

The most likely scenario is Biden wins with EC totals in the 290-315 range while winning the popular vote by about 5%.

 

[Maxima1]

 

[UNCjigga]

My best guess—basically if Trump can hold NC or Michigan then it’s all over for Biden.

 

[Timorous]

I predict it does not matter because it will be a complete shit show before all the votes are counted.

 

[sportage]

America is sick. Very sick. I hope for a miracle but knowing lazy imbred America and how it is, I expect a map like this:



From people like this.

 

[snoopy7548]

I don't think so. Clinton didn't even lose that badly to Trump; I don't see any reason for Biden doing worse than Clinton.

 

[K1052]

I think Iowa turns back, he wins NC, and my dark horse flip is GA this year.

 

[HomerJS]

If Biden, 290-248

If Trump, 278-260

I live in PA. That ain't happening this time. Besides courts made GOP fix the districts to look less like linguine

 

[woolfe9998]

This is the highest potential blowout I see as possible:

View attachment 30710

How is it "impossible" for Biden to win TX given that aggregated polling shows Trump is only up by 1.7 there?

If you add in TX to the above, then you have the "best possible" outcome for Biden.