Post your 2020 EC result prediction. Here's mine.

[MrSquished]

I think the EC is going to look like this: 5-4 SC ruling for Trump.

 

[Jaskalas]

Here is how I think the EC will play out in November.

Play with the map, screen shot it and post yours.

What about the EC in December? The States within 100k votes will be a shitshow of legal battles for weeks / months following November 3rd.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

How is it "impossible" for Biden to win TX given that aggregated polling shows Trump is only up by 1.7 there?

If you add in TX to the above, then you have the "best possible" outcome for Biden.

Yes because Texas

 

[Fenixgoon]

Yes because Texas

Because Republicans & TX Gov. Abbott is ordering the closure of satellite ballot drop off locations

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[ewdotson]

I think the EC is going to look like this: 5-4 SC ruling for Trump.

It's insane that this is something I would have to count on, but I don't think Gorsuch would agree to anything *too* egregious.

 

[Ajay]

Because Republicans & TX Gov. Abbott is ordering the closure of satellite ballot drop off locations

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Geez, what is it with Texas governors being people who failed up?

 

[woolfe9998]

Because Republicans & TX Gov. Abbott is ordering the closure of satellite ballot drop off locations

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None of which makes it literally impossible for Biden to win the state. Trump is up by +1.7.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

None of which makes it literally impossible for Biden to win the state. Trump is up by +1.7.

Remember TX
Texas will become the new Florida.

 

[woolfe9998]

Remember TX
Texas will become the new Florida.

No, it won't, because TX is unlikely to be the tipping point state as Florida was in 2000. If TX is a photo-finish like FLA was in 2000, then Biden didn't need TX and he can just concede it to Trump since it won't matter.

 

[local]

Geez, what is it with Texas governors being people who failed up?

Not only that but everyone I know here are now saying Abbot and Bush are traitorous RINOs. I really don't know where to take the conversation from there.

 

[K1052]

Not only that but everyone I know here are now saying Abbot and Bush are traitorous RINOs. I really don't know where to take the conversation from there.

Usually it is after a state party falls into the minority that it goes totally nutso but TX is overachieving this year.

 

[local]

Usually it is after a state party falls into the minority that it goes totally nutso but TX is overachieving this year.

Yeah. We had a couple people ready to vote against Trump but they jumped back on the train due to the SC pick, gotta overturn that RvW and protect the 2nd you know. /s

I am actually considering moving and that is something I never thought I would say.

 

[Wreckem]

Usually it is after a state party falls into the minority that it goes totally nutso but TX is overachieving this year.

The normal republicans and the far right republicans have been essentially at battle since the bathroom bill got killed two legislative sessions ago. It escalated when a far right group recorded Speaker Bonnon basically talking shit about other republicans and how he was going to go after them in the primaries. Covid further escalated it and now they are attacking Abbott and his policies.

Far right are Lt. Gov. Patrick disciples and the rest follow Abbott. 2022 is gonna be absolute nuts for the Texas GOP. Especially if their majorities in the State Senate and State House shrink again this year.

While in a landslide scenario Texas could go blue in 2020; its extremely likely a Democrat could be elected Governor in 2022. How? Patrick challenges Abbott and wins the primary. Patrick is loathed at this point by regular and moderate republicans. In that scenario a person like Beto could win the governorship.

 

[Jhhnn]

None of which makes it literally impossible for Biden to win the state. Trump is up by +1.7.

Correct. Trump took Texas by 9 points in 2016, closely matching the polling. Now he has to fight for it. Low voter participation rate actually makes it easier for a blue wave because Dems don't need as many people.

 

[Ken g6]

Here's my projection:

View attachment 30719

Yeah, I think that it's going to be close, and we're going to have to wait awhile for a final tally.

I hope it's not that close. But along those lines:

At which point it becomes a race between the Supreme Court and the House of Representatives.

 

[nickqt]

I live in PA. That ain't happening this time. Besides courts made GOP fix the districts to look less like linguine

I mean, I'm hoping it's my top map pick and PA comes back to the sane side.

I included the bottom map pick because I still think it's a toss-up.

 

[IJTSSG]

 

[ewdotson]

I hope it's not that close. But along those lines:

At which point it becomes a race between the Supreme Court and the House of Representatives.

Do note that while it's true that the HoR votes in the event of a tie, each state only gets one vote total - not one vote per Representative. So it's not as rosy a scenario for the Dems as one might assume.

 

[Ajay]

So mine, using historical trends (if I got it right):



Works for me so far as Biden wins and this doesn't go to the SC.

 

[Indus]

So mine, using historical trends (if I got it right):

View attachment 30813

Works for me so far as Biden wins and this doesn't go to the SC.

Oh you can bet on that going to SCOTUS since just PA alone would switch it to Trump.

 

[Ajay]

Oh you can bet on that going to SCOTUS since just PA alone would switch it to Trump.

Good point, it is too close for comfort. Joe would need to flip another large population state to seal the victory.

 

[skyking]

I'll take that bet, minus NC.

ditto

 

[BurnItDwn]

1.) Every possible voter suppression scheme that republicans think they can get away with, they wil do.
2.) Voter intimidation will be present in many polling places, and, it will likely turn deadly.

Trump or Pence will lose election by millions, but, he somehow might still take the electoral college. (Will trump survive COVID19?)

 

[dawp]

i think it'll the EC will look like this before they meet

and look like this with the faithless electors

https://www.270towin.com/map-images/3W4LY

 

[woolfe9998]

This is simply a representation of current polling. If you give each candidate every state he is ahead in the 538 average. Admittedly, GA and OH are extremely close though. So you could call those two states toss ups. If you flip those two states to Trump, then it's Biden 335 to Trump 203.