Post your 2020 EC result prediction. Here's mine.

[Amused]

I see a lot of people who think Joe will lose PA. I'm not familiar with this the Philadelphia Inquirer but when it comes to polling there were some things in this article that make sense.

How Biden’s lead is different from Clinton’s — and why the polls are different this time

Trump is facing an even higher degree of difficulty to pull off another stunner. And there are realistic scenarios in which Biden wins running away.

www.inquirer.com

This article helped me a LOT! Thank you!

 

[Wreckem]

The only way we will know of a winner of election night is if Texas goes blue.

What people and especially the GOP are not realizing is the down ballot races are helping Biden more than Biden is helping them...

The GOP are getting slaughtered in the down ballot races which is helping lift Biden beyond the reach of polling errors. The GOP has been spending so much money on Trumps sinking ship and Trump blew his wad on essentially hookers and coke. They have neglected the down ballots worse than the Dems did in 2010.

 

[ecogen]

The only way we will know of a winner of election night is if Texas goes blue.

What people and especially the GOP are not realizing is the down ballot races are helping Biden more than Biden is helping them...

FL is an easier grab than Texas for Biden and pretty much guarantees victory.

 

[Wreckem]

FL is an easier grab than Texas for Biden and pretty much guarantees victory.

Relying on Florida also means relying on other states that won’t have anywhere near election night tally’s. Winning Florida does not seal the deal on election night because of that. Several swing states will take days to count. While winning Florida makes it extremely probable. Texas without Florida or other states is a nail in the coffin. Texas will have its results on election night.

 

[ecogen]

Relying on Florida also means relying on other states that won’t have anywhere near election night tally’s. Winning Florida does not seal the deal on election night because of that. Several swing states will take days to count. While winning Florida makes it extremely probable. Texas without Florida or other states is a nail in the coffin. Texas will have its results on election night.

I mean theoretically yes, but Biden's chances of winning FL and losing the race are pretty much negligable.

 

[Wreckem]

I

I mean theoretically yes, but Biden's chances of winning FL and losing the race are pretty much negligable.

I know people down play the chances of Texas flipping but I would not be shocked if Trump wins Florida but loses Texas.

 

[K1052]

FL is an easier grab than Texas for Biden and pretty much guarantees victory.

Florida is a treacherous wench that I wouldn't trust with a nickel.

Spending a little time and money trying to tip over GA and/or TX where polling is so close is a wise investment IMO. They are reaches but the payoff would be huge and you don't need FL even though they've gone big there.

Edit: Also Senate elections in both states

 

[ecogen]

I know people down play the chances of Texas flipping but I would not be shocked if Trump wins Florida but loses Texas.

Shocked? Maybe not. I still think the flipside is much more plausible though.

Florida is a treacherous wench that I wouldn't trust with a nickel.

Spending a little time and money trying to tip over GA and/or TX where polling is so close is a wise investment IMO. They are reaches but the payoff would be huge and you don't need FL even though they've gone big there.

Edit: Also Senate elections in both states

I wouldn't call the TX senate race a reach, it's more like wishful thinking. GA on the other hand is looking good especially after the latest Monmouth poll.

 

[K1052]

I wouldn't call the TX senate race a reach, it's more like wishful thinking. GA on the other hand is looking good especially after the latest Monmouth poll.

There is a reason Harris got sent to the RGV and Biden is going to other states.

 

[ecogen]

There is a reason Harris got sent to the RGV and Biden is going to other states.

I doubt that reason is the TX senate race, more like Presidential race and state house/senate.

 

[K1052]

I doubt that reason is the TX senate race, more like Presidential race and state house/senate.

correct

 

[Wreckem]

There is a reason Harris got sent to the RGV and Biden is going to other states.

Democrart operatives need to be in the Valley to get those voters to go vote. The RGV is lagging behind in early voting.

 

[ewdotson]

I doubt that reason is the TX senate race, more like Presidential race and state house/senate.

Flipping the Texas state legislature ahead of redistricting would be huge.

 

[Paratus]

Biden currently has a several ways to win. Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin look like a lock so he’s got 258 EC votes. He needs one of the following

• Pennsylvania
• Florida
• Arizona + 1 (NE 2nd or another state)
• Georgia
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Texas
• Iowa + another state.

So he’s got a lot of paths to 270.

 

[Ken g6]

Between slow election reporting and the possibility that Trump supporters aren't responding to polls, I'm getting a bad feeling the map could look like this a week from now:

 

[ecogen]

the possibility that Trump supporters aren't responding to polls

Lmao Politico pushing Trafalgar group nonsense.

 

[Amused]

Between slow election reporting and the possibility that Trump supporters aren't responding to polls, I'm getting a bad feeling the map could look like this a week from now:

I do not buy the "shy trump voter" hypothesis.

Polls are done in private, first, second, Trump voters can't wait to say they support Trump in swing and red states.

The pollsters UNIVERSALLY identified the primary problem with 2016. They severely under represented the white NON-college educated males and have now corrected for that. That college and non-college educated voters voted so wildly different was a phenomenon new to 2016.

Also, 2016 had severe Clinton apathy.

Here, this article sums up the issues with 2016's polls and why that will NOT repeat this year.

How Biden’s lead is different from Clinton’s — and why the polls are different this time

Trump is facing an even higher degree of difficulty to pull off another stunner. And there are realistic scenarios in which Biden wins running away.

www.inquirer.com

 

[Ken g6]

That article is about Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania and Nevada are the two toss-up states that will report results last, due to accepting mail-in votes very late. I'm not saying Biden won't win Pennsylvania; I'm saying we may not know if he did by this time next week.

Of course, if Biden wins Florida, Ohio, or any two of North Carolina, Georgia, (edit)Arizona, and Iowa, we'll know a result sooner.

 

[Amused]

That article is about Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania and Nevada are the two toss-up states that will report results last, due to accepting mail-in votes very late. I'm not saying Biden won't win Pennsylvania; I'm saying we may not know if he did by this time next week.

Of course, if Biden wins Florida, Ohio, or any two of North Carolina, Georgia, (edit)Arizona, and Iowa, we'll know a result sooner.

It reports on the broader issue of why the polls in swing states were wrong in 2016 and that not only are the conditions very different in 2020, but the one undercounted demographic has been adjusted for now

 

[gothuevos]

I do not buy the "shy trump voter" hypothesis.

Polls are done in private, first, second, Trump voters can't wait to say they support Trump in swing and red states.

The pollsters UNIVERSALLY identified the primary problem with 2016. They severely under represented the white NON-college educated males and have now corrected for that. That college and non-college educated voters voted so wildly different was a phenomenon new to 2016.

Also, 2016 had severe Clinton apathy.

Here, this article sums up the issues with 2016's polls and why that will NOT repeat this year.

How Biden’s lead is different from Clinton’s — and why the polls are different this time

Trump is facing an even higher degree of difficulty to pull off another stunner. And there are realistic scenarios in which Biden wins running away.

www.inquirer.com

It's not so much the shy voter as much as it is the oversampled Dem voters and yes, there are many Trump voters that probably don't reply. Not out of shyness.

The warning signs have been there for awhile. I predict a lot of "how did this happen" around here. A lot of pollsters are also going to be out of work.

 

[ecogen]

It's not so much the shy voter as much as it is the oversampled Dem voters

Show your work, or stop posting this baseless garbage.

 

[alexruiz]

Lmao Politico pushing Trafalgar group nonsense.

I read that one.
They make some good points, but still portray the trump base as "shy"
Those inbreds are not shy, they are bold, loud and obnoxious.
The orange slimeball made socially acceptable to be the worst you can be, so they have no reason to hide.

One of the good points they made was about asking "who do you think your neighbors would vote for?"
It reasons that it would lead to a more honest answer about your own choice.
However, implies more on who do you think is the closet trumpster.

One point that was totally out of whack, was the "well, I support trump, I know most of my neighbors support him, but we don't put signs because of the LONELY Biden neighbor who might get offended..."
Seriously? If the trumpsters have majority in the street, the street will be drowning in rambo cheeto flags.
Everything is possible, the cheeto might pull the win, but I personally think the polls are right. In fact, pollster might be oversampling trumpsters in fear of a 2016 repeat.

Regardless, don't get complacent, let's vote him out!

Edit:
If the trumpsters are shy, why are they drowning social media with their stupidity?
posting on facebook makes it much more visible to many more people than an anonymous phone caller.
So they didn't want an anonymous person to know their preference, but have no problem letting the facebook world of their stupidity?

 

[alexruiz]

Show your work, or stop posting this baseless garbage.

I think he is the alt account of q mahal

 

[Wreckem]

It's not so much the shy voter as much as it is the oversampled Dem voters and yes, there are many Trump voters that probably don't reply. Not out of shyness.

The warning signs have been there for awhile. I predict a lot of "how did this happen" around here. A lot of pollsters are also going to be out of work.

What warning signs? The down ballots show it’s going to be a bloodbath for the GOP on November 3. Far worse than 2018 and same folks that are saying the polls are off said the same thing then. They were right they were off, just in the wrong direction. If there is a polling error it’s likely in favor of the Dems this year. Just like 2018.

The downballots for the GOP are worse than the 2010 elections for the Dems.

 

[Amused]

It's not so much the shy voter as much as it is the oversampled Dem voters and yes, there are many Trump voters that probably don't reply. Not out of shyness.

The warning signs have been there for awhile. I predict a lot of "how did this happen" around here. A lot of pollsters are also going to be out of work.

Bah, the article I posted gave the exact post mortem the pollsters did and found a universal problem and pollsters have corrected for it.

There is no mystery now why the 2016 polls were wrong. And people who make their living being as accurate as possible are obviously going to fix the mistakes they made.

To sit in a position of total ignorance and assume that pollsters are just going about business as they did before 2016, or that they didn't figure out what exactly went wrong is just extreme Dunning Kruger.

Flat out: 2016 was the first time college and non-college educated white men voted so drastically different, that unintentionally under polling non-college educated white men skewed the polls. Pollsters immediately figured this out and corrected for it.

So much so that 2018's polls were actually skewed in favor of the Republicans and Dems outperformed the polls in the actual vote