- Mar 28, 2005
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This is just for fun to see who can come closest to predicting the outcome. Let's keep arguments about polls to any of the several extant threads addressing those issues. Here, you can post predictions about POTUS and/or Congress. You can just pick a winner, or indicate popular vote margins, and/or state-by-state predictions. So long as its a prediction rather than an argument, it's fine.
Here's mine (POTUS ONLY):
Popular vote: Obama wins by .5%
Key battleground states:
PA: O+3.5
WI: O+3
NV: O+2
OH: O+1
NH: O+1
IA: O+1
CO: too close to call (could swing either way)
VA: R+.5
FL: R+2
NC: R+3.5
All other states to go as generally forecast by pretty much everyone.
Obama 281-290 Romney 248-257
Note that these projections are not the same as fivethirtyeight or any other aggregator. They lean closer to Romney than any of the 7 poll aggregators. I have my reasons for this but I'd rather discuss reasons in another thread.
Here's mine (POTUS ONLY):
Popular vote: Obama wins by .5%
Key battleground states:
PA: O+3.5
WI: O+3
NV: O+2
OH: O+1
NH: O+1
IA: O+1
CO: too close to call (could swing either way)
VA: R+.5
FL: R+2
NC: R+3.5
All other states to go as generally forecast by pretty much everyone.
Obama 281-290 Romney 248-257
Note that these projections are not the same as fivethirtyeight or any other aggregator. They lean closer to Romney than any of the 7 poll aggregators. I have my reasons for this but I'd rather discuss reasons in another thread.