PREDICTION: Jeb Bush will be nominated and win the next presidential election.

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jonks

Lifer
Feb 7, 2005
13,918
20
81
I actually think his moribund campaign could conceivably be revived. I don't believe any of the current three front-runners (Trump, Carson, Cruz) are viable candidates, and given time I expect all of them will recede into statistical insignificance. To me the smart money is on Rubio, but I would not discount the possibility of a Bush resurgence.

Ding Ding.

Take a weekly prescription of 538.com and predictwise.com, and reassess after Iowa.
 

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
Trump did it this time. 60 days tops before Trump flames out completely and as expected this sets the stage for Bush to rise.

Bush is in stealth mode waiting for the Trump blowout, I think its coming within 60 days.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,810
29,564
146
Trump did it this time. 60 days tops before Trump flames out completely and as expected this sets the stage for Bush to rise.

Bush is in stealth mode waiting for the Trump blowout, I think its coming within 60 days.

Too bad Rubio has been backhanding ol Jeb left and right.
 

DrPizza

Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Mar 5, 2001
49,606
166
111
www.slatebrookfarm.com
I actually think his moribund campaign could conceivably be revived. I don't believe any of the current three front-runners (Trump, Carson, Cruz) are viable candidates, and given time I expect all of them will recede into statistical insignificance. To me the smart money is on Rubio, but I would not discount the possibility of a Bush resurgence.
I agree completely; I've thought this for a couple months now. It's just a matter of waiting for the insanity to settle down.
 

dank69

Lifer
Oct 6, 2009
35,601
29,313
136
Trump did it this time. 60 days tops before Trump flames out completely and as expected this sets the stage for Bush to rise.

Bush is in stealth mode waiting for the Trump blowout, I think its coming within 60 days.
A majority of Trump supporters do not give a shit about the Constitution. They do not give a shit about Mexicans, Muslims, LGBT, black people or women. Trump could say he wants to execute all Muslims and the polls would barely budge.
 

JEDIYoda

Lifer
Jul 13, 2005
33,982
3,318
126
Mark this spot. Jeb Bush will win the next presidental election, and will be re-elected for a second term.

Romney will be Vice President pick.

Americans are tired of a Democrat president. They want a White conservative president for a change.
hahahahaaaaaa
 

werepossum

Elite Member
Jul 10, 2006
29,873
463
126
Not surprised. Trump is as far from their comfort zone as he is from the Democrat establishment's.

I will say one thing though - the Pubbies are preparing to win the battle and lose the war. If Trump honestly wins the nomination and they manage to wrest it away from him, there will not be a Republican party to speak of by 2020. If the choice is between the Democrat or the other Democrat, far too many people will simply not vote for the GOP to defeat any likely Democrat candidate.
 

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,493
3,159
136
I still believe polls mean nothing.
The actual VOTE will tell all.
And you can ignore iOwa. They are total morons. Their primary system is totally moronic.
With iOwa, one must personally show up to their primary that takes place one night in someones home. That's it.
If you work nights, sorry iOwan. No allowance made for you.
If you are a cop, a nurse, a fast food worker, anyone working the evening shift, YOU have absolutely NO SAY in the iOwa primary system.
Only the iOwa morons that probably spend their day picking their nose or talking to themselves show up at these primaries. The real worker is most likely too tired from working all day, or working that evening to show up.
ANyway... forget iOwa.

But after that, I still give Jeb Bush a better than average chance of winning primary after primary.
Polls be damned, the establishment guy, Jeb, is going to rise to party leader when the actual voting begins.
Maybe not. But maybe so?
 

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
Jeb will slide in that is for sure. The GOP side was supposed to be easy like what is going on with the Democrats. Look at the Democrat side, Clinton is the defacto pick, this was supposed to be the same with Bush.

Trump ended up pissing in the punch bowl and ruining the party. The GOP will work it out and when the smoke blows, Bush will slide right in.

2016 was always supposed to be a Bush/Clinton year and it will be once all this blows over.
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
Heh, people still don't get it with Trump.

He's a populist.

Frank Luntz did a "mindfuck" experiment, subjecting 29 Trump or ex-Trump supporters to all kinds of negative input on Trump. This included a compilation of Trump Gaffes, attack ads including one by a retired Air Force Colonel, and negative media headlines.

This was the result :

https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...e9edf8-9f44-11e5-a3c5-c77f2cc5a43c_story.html


Over three hours Wednesday in Alexandria, Luntz lobbed dozens of Trump-seeking missiles...
...
“Normally, if I did this for a campaign, I’d have destroyed the candidate by this point,” Luntz told a group of reporters when the session ended. “After three hours of showing that stuff?”
...
That confidence only grew as Trump’s alleged gaffes and mistakes were laid out. At 6:30 p.m., when the session began, all 29 participants were asked to rate their likelihood of voting for Trump, and just 10 people said they were at nine or 10.

After one hour of mostly negative questions about Trump, six more people joined that confident group.
 
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Sonikku

Lifer
Jun 23, 2005
15,752
4,562
136
The Conservative/Fox war on Trump is about as effective as the war on terror and the war on drugs.
 

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
A majority of Trump supporters do not give a shit about the Constitution. They do not give a shit about Mexicans, Muslims, LGBT, black people or women. Trump could say he wants to execute all Muslims and the polls would barely budge.

Ohh shut up you fucking moron. The Constitution says the President is supposed to uphold the laws. That means that Mexicans stay the fuck on their side of the border. Like the Dems care about black people. They'd prefer them to be unemployed, knocked up, and on drugs. That way they can hand them welfare, add more kids to the dole, and create help programs while soliciting votes the hole way. LGBTs are a useful tool to subjugate the "patriarchy" and pussify the country to get them to depend on the Dems 100%.

Now go buy some Hotpockets with your EBT card and have your mom cook them for you.

How's that for hyperbole, bitch.
 
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Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
Ohh shut up you fucking moron. The Constitution says the President is supposed to uphold the laws. That means that Mexicans stay the fuck on their side of the border. Like the Dems care about black people. They'd prefer them to be unemployed, knocked up, and on drugs. That way they can hand them welfare, add more kids to the dole, and create help programs while soliciting votes the hole way. LGBTs are a useful tool to subjugate the "patriarchy" and pussify the country to get them to depend on the Dems 100%.

Now go buy some Hotpockets with your EBT card and have your mom cook them for you.

How's that for hyperbole, bitch.

Lol
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
The Conservative/Fox war on Trump is about as effective as the war on terror and the war on drugs.

Fox actually isn't really the one attacking Trump since the first debate, not yet anyway.

It's the left that keeps giving him big wins.

One of the things that came out of the Luntz study was this poll :



The problem here is the wording of the question. People picked up on that. There's a backlash there, people rightfully feel manipulated and deceived by the media.


Compare the results to this poll by Bloomberg, which used the full wording of Trumps statement (including the word temporary).




The more that the left (and in some cases, the right) does this kind of thing, the more people get disgusted with establishment politics, and right now the go-to person to strike back is Trump.

Part of the definition of a populist (Trump) : "...when contrasting any new collective consciousness push against the prevailing status quo interests of any predominant political sector."
 

Lash444

Golden Member
Sep 17, 2002
1,708
63
91
Fox actually isn't really the one attacking Trump since the first debate, not yet anyway.

It's the left that keeps giving him big wins.

One of the things that came out of the Luntz study was this poll :



The problem here is the wording of the question. People picked up on that. There's a backlash there, people rightfully feel manipulated and deceived by the media.


Compare the results to this poll by Bloomberg, which used the full wording of Trumps statement (including the word temporary).




The more that the left (and in some cases, the right) does this kind of thing, the more people get disgusted with establishment politics, and right now the go-to person to strike back is Trump.

Part of the definition of a populist (Trump) : "...when contrasting any new collective consciousness push against the prevailing status quo interests of any predominant political sector."
Lol. So now the Democrats are to blame for posting an article trying to make Trump look like an even larger idiot than he already is, but instead of the educated Republican base choosing one of their grade A candidates instead, they are going to Trump in defiance because they hate politicians. I guess that's one way to look at it.

What is it going to take for the right to admit that their base is full of white christians who long for nothing more than a white america. Look at what trump says. He mentions Mexicans and Muslims and basically talks about segragating the country from them by any means necessary. And where do his poll numbers go?

If either of the two main democratic hopefuls did that, the fallout would be fairly serious. Anyone really believe their poll numbers wouldn't slide from it?

If Trumps numbers stay strong or grow stronger from hate speech, that's not on democrats. Its what your base wants to hear.
 

shady28

Platinum Member
Apr 11, 2004
2,520
397
126
What is it going to take for the right to admit that their base is full of white christians who long for nothing more than a white america. Look at what trump says. ...

Discarding the fact that you're clearly a racist and religiophobic, you're also ignorant. The proof is here.

By the way, that also makes you a hypocrite.
 

Subyman

Moderator <br> VC&G Forum
Mar 18, 2005
7,876
32
86
Not surprised. Trump is as far from their comfort zone as he is from the Democrat establishment's.

I will say one thing though - the Pubbies are preparing to win the battle and lose the war. If Trump honestly wins the nomination and they manage to wrest it away from him, there will not be a Republican party to speak of by 2020. If the choice is between the Democrat or the other Democrat, far too many people will simply not vote for the GOP to defeat any likely Democrat candidate.

I think they'd rather lose this war than have Trump in there. It could take decades to repair the damages to the GOP if Trump gets to the white house and makes a mockery of the US Government.
 

Lash444

Golden Member
Sep 17, 2002
1,708
63
91
Just blame democrats for his election. It wasn't what your base wanted, but they felt pity for him because the left was making all politicians look so bad that they tainted the other, more noble candidates on the right. Lol
 

Hugo Drax

Diamond Member
Nov 20, 2011
5,647
47
91
Trump,Cruz,Rubio,carson,Christie,Fiorina,Kasich,paul,graham. will vanishfrom that chart by march.

leaving Bush.
 
Feb 4, 2009
34,703
15,951
136
I don't see Bush coming back based on what I see in this chart.


Whom do you plan on voting for Boomer? I realize its early and your choice could change, I'm just wondering about right now.
No judgement will be passed unless its something stupid like I won't vote or I'll write in Ron Reagan.
 
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